Johan Santana and 5 Huge Surprises to Start the MLB Season

Coming into this season, the New York Mets knew they would have one of the best, most talented hurlers back on the mound every fifth day after he missed all of the 2011 season due to a shoulder injury in Johan Santana.

Thus far, he’s started two games for the Mets, and he looks just as he did back in the mid-2000s in his heyday with the Minnesota Twins. The two-time Cy Young Award winner is 0-1 with a .90 ERA this season, but that’s not too surprising, right?

What’s more surprising is the fact that he’s only tossed 10 innings, five innings on average, over his first two contests of the season. The Santana that the Mets traded for used to regularly toss seven to eight innings, and a complete game was never out of the question for him.

Well, after surgery last season, we’ll see if he can return to his All-Star form and take the Mets back to the playoffs. So far, that’s the biggest surprise around the major leagues, but there have been plenty of more, including a couple of hot team starts and a couple of prominent and important players will not be featured on their respective rosters this season.

Check out my top seven surprises of the MLB 2012 season so far!

1. Johan Santana's Lack of Stamina

Santana has been labeled as everything from the crafty left-hander to hard-throwing southpaw to work horse at the major league level. After he made the transition from temporary starter and relief man to full-time starter after the 2003 season with the Twins, he’s tossed 1,512.1 innings over 222 starts (not including this season). Over that stretch, he averaged 6.81 innings per outing.

The problem so far this season has been his pitch count and whether he will be able to go as deep as he used to in his career. From 2008 to 2010, he started 87 games, and in 57 of those games, he lasted at least seven innings. On average, he need around 105 pitches to get through those seven innings.

In his first outing of the year, as expected, Terry Collins and the Mets had him on a short leash. They allowed him to go five innings of scoreless baseball. Santana needed 84 pitches to get throw those five innings. In his latest outing, he last only five innings and tossed 99 pitches; he faced one batter in the sixth inning. 

So, before his surgery, he was much more efficient with his pitches. Although he has struck out 13 batters, which raises his pitch count of course, there still is some doubt, and the Mets should be somewhat skeptical toward his capabilities.

Maybe the Mets are being cautious with their star pitcher because they don’t want to trudge through another season without him. Or maybe he just doesn’t have the stamina anymore to go deep into games. Either way, Santana and the Mets need to figure out what’s going on and soon.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury on DL Again

I’m not sure if you’ve heard yet, but Red Sox outfield Jacoby Ellsbury, again, is injured and will miss a large chunk of the 2012 season. This loss is a huge blow to the Sox, who are always in contention in the very tough American League East.

Last year, Ellsbury broke out and turned many heads around the majors. Everyone knew he was going to be a special player at this level, but I don’t think too many realized his power potential.

He jolted 32 home runs and drove in 105 RBI en route to earning a second-place nomination for the coveted AL MVP award. Not only did he produce powerful numbers, he also hit at a .321 clip and he compiled 364 total bases, not to mention the Gold Glove Award for center field.

After suffering a partially dislocated right shoulder this past Friday night in Tampa, there’s no timetable for his return. The two candidates who will be taking turns at his position seem to be veteran and former Giant Cody Ross and former Athletic Ryan Sweeney.

Filling the center field void is a tough task, but filling the shoes of someone who hit 30-plus  home runs, drove in more than 100 RBI, was always a potential stolen base threat on the bases and one of the best all-around young players in the MLB will be almost impossible.

3. Heath Bell Struggles

The new-look Miami Marlins have had a tough couple of weeks as of late. Entering the ’12 season, they were supposed to be one of the teams to beat in the National League and were actually projected to be in the World Series by many ESPN commentators and baseball critics.

The whole Ozzie Guillen outburst/comments about Fidel Castro sure dealt a blow to their PR department and I’m sure put a damper on their opening weekend in Miami.

Now, their new closer, former San Diego star Heath Bell, is struggling and not himself.  Yes, it’s just the beginning of the season, but after Saturday’s night implosion in the ninth when he blew a 4-1 lead against the lowly Astros, things are not looking up for Bell and the Marlins.

This season, his ERA to date sits at 12.00. Yes, it’s only been a week, this might not be a new concern. Last season, his strike out per nine inning ratio dropped from 11.1 in 2010 to just 7.3 in 2011. That’s almost a four strikeout drop in just one season, which could mean a couple of things for Bell.

Either he’s lost zip on his fast ball and MLB hitters are able to catch up to it now, or he’s become more predictable on the mound, and they know what they’re going to get before they even step to the plate. 

The three-time All-Star saved at least 42 games for the last three years with the Padres and as many as 47 back in 2010. That was by far his best season at the major league level, as he finished with an impressive 1.93 ERA and a 6-1 record to go along with his career-high in saves.

Of course, he’s not nearly as bad as he’s pitched thus far into the ’12 season, but something needs to change. Either he needs to pick up some speed on his fastball, or he needs to work more on his off-speed junk so that his fastball looks like it’s faster.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers Hot 9-1 Start

Yes, it’s only been a week and a half, and the Los Angeles Dodgers have only lost one game on the year. Their ninth win of the season last night equaled their best mark in L.A. history. And, they’re playing very strongly under the radar, as most expected the Giants, Diamondbacks and Rockies to battle in the West division.

Offensively, 2011 MVP centerfielder Matt Kemp is leading the charge with five home runs, 15 RBI and a .457 batting average over just the first nine games he’s played in thus far. Also, right fielder Andre Eithier is hitting .303 with three home runs and 14 RBI through his first nine contests.

As a team, they’re only hitting at a .242 clip, but they’ve managed to score 45 runs over their first 10 games (4.5 runs per game), which is second in the National League and first in their own division. 

As for their pitching staff, veteran Chad Billingsley is leading the team with two wins in as many contests. Not to mention he sports the second-lowest ERA of any starter with .63.  The lefty sensation Clayton Kershaw has failed to record a decision over his two outings, but he’s only allowed one run over his 10 innings of work (.90 ERA).

Ted Lilly started his first game of the year the other night and received a no-decision, but still pitched very well as he seven innings of no-run baseball. As a group, their team ERA sits at 2.96 on the year, which is good for first in their division and fifth overall in the National League.

So, it seems as if the Dodgers are clicking on all cylinders. No one expected them to storm out of the gates and win their first nine out of 10 games, completing a sweep of the Padres this past weekend. The question will be whether they can sustain their offensive production over the entire season.

5. Washington Nationals Hot 7-3 Start

Coming into the 2012 season, many of the critics and MLB speculators projected that the Nationals will be in contention for the National League East title. And honestly, I was not really on board, mainly because their division is so tough, especially with the new-look Marlins.

Usually, there’s not as much emphasis placed on team’s records after the first week of games because anything can happen, but it looks as if the Nationals are here to stay. Their pitching staff was not the major question entering this spring, as they have some very strong hurlers. 

The major question mark was whether or not their offense could produce the numbers needed to sustain a winning team. Although no one really stands out in their lineup statistic-wise, they’ve been able to string together seven victories. 

As a team, they’re hitting .251, which is the best in their division and the fifth-best in the National League. They’ve scored 34 runs on the year, which only averages out to 3.4 runs per game, and surprisingly, that’s the most in their division.

Former Braves first baseman Adam LaRoche leads the team with two home runs and 10 RBI, including a .333 batting average. Collectively, they’ve only hit four home runs on the year. They’ve been lucky up to this point with their low-offensive numbers, but it’s going to catch up to them soon.

So, as you can see, it’s definitely about their pitching staff, whose collective ERA sits at just 1.82 on the young year, which is good for first in the National League. Phenom Stephen Strasburg leads the staff with a 1-0 record and a .69 ERA over his first two outings of the season.

In fact, the highest ERA among their starting pitchers is Edwin Jackson’s 2.57. As a team, their highest ERA is just 5.40, not to mention they have four pitchers who have yet to allow an earned run thus far.

Of course, their main question is whether or not their offense will be able to step it up because their pitching staff will get tired at some point and not perform as well.  

6. Brian Wilson: Tommy John Surgery Again?

Everyone has seen the beard and is aware of whom I am referencing just by saying “the beard." The flame-throwing RHP Brian Wilson of the former World Series champion San Francisco Giants might have to undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery. Wilson previously underwent the most well-known surgery in baseball when he was in college.

Last season, although his numbers weren’t as impressive as in 2011 when he led the Giants to the October classic, he finished with a 6-4 record, 3.11 ERA and 36 saves through 55.0 innings. The year before, he saved a career-high 48 games and posted an astounding 1.81 ERA. Over the last four seasons with the Giants, he’s accumulated 163 saves (40.75 per year).

2010 was an exciting year for the Giants and Wilson, as he battled Bell for the title of best closer on the West Coast. He finished with one more save than Bell that season, and his ERA was just a touch lower (.12 difference).

Of course, Wilson is just their closer and he’s definitely replaceable, as there are already two other candidates in line for his job (Sergio Romo and Heath Hembree). However, I’m sure these candidates won’t bring the type of fire and drive that he brings to the mound every time he steps on the rubber. It’s exciting to see what he’ll do on the field each time he comes out because he’s so unpredictable.

Losing Wilson for the entire season will definitely be a blow to the Giants, although I don’t think it will be as pertinent as Ellsbury or Santana. Not only would Wilson miss the remainder of this season, he’ll miss some of the 2013 season, and who’s to say he’ll be able to return with the type of impact we’re accustomed to seeing from the bearded Giant.