Analyzing the CB Free-Agent Market for Clues to Kirkpatrick, Gilmore Draft Value

One big clue into how the first round will unfold is given to us in the first wave of free agency. Teams' willingness to commit long term to players in comparison to the conventional wisdom level of talent the player possesses gives us a baseline for the value of the position. 

Wide receivers dominated the news cycle of the first wave of free agency, but cornerbacks of arguably lesser caliber also cashed in during the initial rush to sign unattached players:

• Dallas gave Brandon Carr $25.5 million guaranteed in a five-year, $50.1 million deal even though he wasn't the best cornerback on his own team in Kansas City.
• Tampa Bay gave Eric Wright $15.5 million guaranteed in a five-year, $37.5 million deal even though he only got a one-year, $2 million deal in free agency last year and is considered mediocre by most observers.
• Kansas City signed Stanford Routt to a three-year, $18 million contract with $6 million guaranteed after division rival Oakland cut him instead of guaranteeing his $5 million base salary for 2012. 

These decisive and mostly expensive moves for mid-level starting corners shows just what a potential shutdown is worth in the NFL today. If a team like Jacksonville, Carolina or Buffalo is forced to make a best player available decision in the top 10 because no one will pay what they want in a trade down or no clear top player is available at a position of need, South Carolina corner Stephon Gilmore could be a strong consideration.

After all, the prospect of overpaying a merely adequate corner in free agency can't be comforting.

Likewise, many of the teams looking at Gilmore in the mid-first (Dallas, Philadelphia, Cincinnati) could turn to Dre Kirkpatrick as a Plan B. Kirkpatrick actually has superior tape to Gilmore, but inferior tools and a character issue that arose when he was arrested for marijuana possession in January (charges were dropped). 

Cornerback is deep this year, and teams picking in the top half of the first may count on a quality prospect being there in the second round. The problem with that logic is that a second-tier prospect like Josh Robinson of Central Florida or Janoris Jenkins of North Alabama could get into the late first because of the aforementioned high demand for cornerbacks.

There's a big financial penalty for addressing cornerback needs in free agency, which could nudge teams into taking one in the first round when it comes time to write a name on a card and hand it to Roger Goodell.