2012 NFL Draft: Ryan Tannehill Would Be a Huge Mistake with No. 3 Pick

Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill may eventually be a terrific NFL player. With the draft, no one can really know anything for certain.

But given what we understand right know, the idea of some team trading up to the No. 3 overall pick to take Tannehill looks like it would be a huge mistake.

For a number of reasons, both real and superficial, speculation surrounding that possibility has gained steam over the last month. But why?

The buzz likely started during a scripted performance in front of a number of anticipating eyes. 

Tannehill put together what many called an "impressive" pro day just over two weeks ago, with Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, Miami Dolphins coach Joe Philbin and Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator Brad Childress all in attendance. Throwing to his own receivers against thin air, Tannehill did unquestionably well with his 68 scripted passes.

Many considered that workout Tannehill's stamp on the draft's top 10.

But as we've crept closer and closer to draft day, the idea of Tannehill going at No. 3 has increased in volume.

The Minnesota Vikings have openly stated that they are more than willing to deal down from No. 3 overall, and Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay took to to Twitter this week to tout Tannehill going third overall.

"Tannehill is a hidden gem in this draft, a quiet secret who was always sneaking up to No. 3...you want him, you better talk to Zigi The Biggie!," Irsay tweeted on Wednesday. "Zigi The Biggie" is a reference to Vikings owner Zygi Wilf.

Quarterback-needy teams such as the Browns, who pick No. 4 overall, and the Dolphins, who hold the No. 8 pick, have been speculated as the leaders to move up. The Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs have also expressed interest at certain times during the process.

But now we come to the reason why Tannehill is a mistake so high in the draft.

The interest in the Texas A&M quarterback is mostly manufactured—a result of desperation setting in at the position and teams not sticking to their original grades on quarterbacks in the draft.

“Because the position has such a high value and because there is such a need to have a quarterback who is consistent and stable, people are reaching,” one general manager told the National Football Post's Dan Pompei. 

“No one can tell you [Tannehill is] a sure thing," one personnel director also told Pompei. "But people don’t stick to their grades at the quarterback position.”

Pompei later went on to say that Tannehill would be nothing more than a mid-second-round pick if teams stuck to their original grades on him. That's a big jump during the months in which absolutely zero football has been played.

Desperation is the reason.

Teams such as the Dolphins and Browns have big needs at quarterback. Anyone with half a football brain could tell you that. Each front office knows it too, and that's where the amplified interest in such a risky prospect has come from.

Quarterbacking desperation has a long history of swaying teams' decisions in the first round. Blaine Gabbert is the latest example from last year's draft. The Jacksonville Jaguars had an obvious need at quarterback, so they went forward with a move up to No. 10 overall to take Gabbert.

Tannehill could be the 2012 version of Gabbert.

Mike Freeman of CBS Sports had a scathing review of Tannehill cracking the top five:

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Tannehill has the greatest bust potential of any possible first-round pick. This is nothing personal against Tannehill. He seems like a fine young man and a smart dude. This is about the people doing the evaluating. This is the great follywang of the draft, and we see this every year.

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He has also struggled to see why Tannehill has rocketed up boards:

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If Tannehill moved any faster up the NFL's draft boards, he'd be Deion Sanders. Starships don't travel this quickly. Still trying to figure out why. Was it his 1-5 record against ranked teams? Was it his completion percentage that fell last year? Was it his quarterback rating that was lower than Brock Osweiler's?

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I have no hesitation in saying that Tannehill could be a team's answer at quarterback down the road. He'll need to fall into a good position where he can sit and learn for a while, but there's potential here.

However, any team giving up picks and/or players to move up to No. 3 overall just doesn't have a good grasp on how to run drafts.

Tannehill probably won't get out of the top 10, but the idea of him going directly after such polished quarterbacking prospects in Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III is mind-blowing.

In a vacuum, without the pressures and desperation of finding a franchise quarterback, Tannehill isn't even close to the third-best player in the draft. That, in the end, is the most telling reason why a team would be making a huge mistake in moving up to get him at No. 3 overall.