NFL Draft Predictions: Why Justin Blackmon Won't Be the 1st Receiver Drafted

Since this time last year Justin Blackmon has been the consensus number one receiver eligible for the 2012 NFL Draft, and by a wide margin.

Suddenly public opinion has drastically changed regarding Blackmon’s stock, and for good reason.

Blackmon doesn’t possess elite speed or size, was a full time starter for only one season and has been arrested for DUI. These variables have started to add up in the eyes of scouts and fans alike, and it isn’t helping Blackmon.

The hype for Blackmon was enormous because of his stellar collegiate career at Oklahoma State. During his tenure at OSU, Blackmon caught 252 passes for 3,564 yards and 40 touchdowns. He dominated opposing teams with alarming frequency.

There’s a lot to like about Blackmon on the field. He has amazing body control and elite instincts. His ability to break a game open on one play is something that is hard to find. He’ll make a solid top 20 pick, but the top five billing he has received is simply inaccurate.

Blackmon only measures in at 6’1” and 207 lbs. For a receiver his size he has elite speed, correct? Not particularly. He elected to not run at the scouting Combine, but at his pro day he recorded a 4.46 40-yard dash time.

These measurements should tell observes one thing—Blackmon could really struggle at the next level. It will be hard for him to create separation if pressed at the line because he won’t be drastically bigger than most NFL corners, and he doesn’t have elite speed that will allow him to blow by them either.

It’s going to be much harder than most think for Blackmon to be dominant at the next level. He has a nice vertical (35 inches at his pro day), but to contend for jump balls he has to be able to create separation first.

Blackmon’s off-field concerns are something that hasn’t received much publicity either for whatever reason. He was arrested for DUI in October of 2010 in Texas.

Typically top ten selections are grilled for something like this, but national media have kept pretty quiet on this incident—but it should be a huge red flag for teams.

Finally, Blackmon has one other major variable working against his case for being the first receiver taken—he’s in the same draft class as Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd.

Floyd is taller, heavier and faster than Blackmon, he also has more starting experience. He measures in at 6’3” and 220 lbs and was a four year starter for the Fighting Irish. In his four years Floyd caught 271 passes for 3,686 yards and 37 touchdowns.

Unlike Blackmon, Floyd is bigger than most NFL corners, so he shouldn’t have any issues creating separation and he’s arguably just as good, if not better than Blackmon when it comes to going up for jump balls and controlling his body to make the highlight grabs.

Floyd does have off-field issues in the same mold as Blackmon, however. Floyd has been arrested three times in his four years at Notre Dame for alcohol-related incidents.

It’s essentially a wash when comparing the character risks of teams looking to invest millions of dollars in either Floyd or Blackmon.

Now draft experts such as NFL Network’s Mike Mayock are hailing Floyd as a top ten pick, and likely being taken before Blackmon because of the reasons listed above.

Unfortunately for Blackmon, the intricate, under-the-magnifying-glass annual examination of each prospect leading up to draft day has exposed some flaws that are hurting his stock. He won’t experience an epic draft day fall, but he certainly won’t go as high as some are projecting.

None of this is to say Blackmon won’t have a successful NFL career. In fact, he could have the best career out of all the receivers in this class. It’s hard to predict.

All this says is there are potentially better options than Blackmon for teams looking for a receiver early in the draft.

The sky is the limit for Blackmon once he steps on an NFL field, but it’s a safe bet that he won’t be the first receiver taken in the draft in a few weeks—and rightfully so.