MLB Trade Scenarios: Johan Santana and 20 Big Contracts to Watch Closely

It's only April, but we already know that there are many players with expensive contracts who could be available as we approach the July 31 trade deadline.

It happens every year. Last year, Mike Adams, Carlos Beltran, Michael Bourn, Edwin Jackson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Derrek Lee, Hunter Pence, Colby Rasmus and Francisco Rodriguez were all dealt in July.

Who will it be this year?

That will depend in large part on what teams are still in playoff contention, so there's no guarantee as to who will be dealt.

Regardless, here are 20 players who could be on the move because their contracts are appealing to contenders looking for a short-term rental and expensive enough to make their current teams want to make a deal.

Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox

It's hard to figure out whether the White Sox are beginning the process of rebuilding or trying to win now. In the same offseason, they let Mark Buehrle leave as a free agent and traded closer Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays, but they also re-signed John Danks to an extension and balked at trading veterans like Gavin Floyd.

With the Tigers likely to run away with the AL Central, my guess is that the White Sox will be trading as many veterans as possible during the summer, and right-handed starter Gavin Floyd will be one of their most valuable trade chips.

His $7 million salary in 2012 is affordable, and the 29-year-old has been reliable throughout his career.

In almost 1,000 innings pitched, he has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and only walked three hitters per nine innings. He has a career 4.51 ERA, but in four season since 2008 his ERAs have been 3.84, 4.06, 4.08 and 4.37, respectively. 

Despite his salary, Floyd's impending free agency and reliability throughout his career should net the White Sox a decent prospect in a trade this summer.

Huston Street, San Diego Padres

The Padres traded for closer Huston Street this offseason, but don't be surprised to see them deal him in 2012.

Closers give little value to bad teams, and the Padres are not expected to be in the pennant race this year.

Street will make $7.5 million in 2012 and holds a $9 million mutual option for 2013. For a contending team looking for a closer, that could be a bargain of a contract considering the fact that Jonathan Papelbon signed for about $50 million this winter.

Assuming Street stays healthy, expect a contending team like the Angels, Phillies or Red Sox to make a play for him.

Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers

Francisco Rodriguez, or K-Rod, has been one of the best closers of the 2000s, but he won't be closing for Milwaukee this year. Instead, he will be setting up for John Axford as the Brewers try to defend their division title.

It remains to be seen whether the Brewers will stay in the NL Central race given Prince Fielder's departure and the questions surrounding Ryan Braun. But if the Brewers do end up as sellers at the trade deadline, K-Rod will be one of the first to go.

He's making $8 million this year, more than affordable for a two or three-month rental, and is still capable of closing. Like Street, a team looking for bullpen help like the Angels, Phillies or Red Sox could be interested.

Carl Pavano, Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins won just 63 games in 2011, and if the first few games of 2012 are any indication, this season won't be much better at Target Field. That would leave the Twins as sellers, and one of their more attractive trade pieces would be pitcher Carl Pavano.

After a disastrous stint with the Yankees, Pavano has turned around his career away from the Bronx. After splitting 2009 with the Indians and Twins, he won 17 games for the Twins in 2010 and notched a respectable 4.30 ERA in 2011 with 222 innings pitched.

He won't be the ace of a playoff rotation, but he could be a third or fourth starter on one. He's due $8.5 million this year but nothing beyond, which could lead to him being dealt.

Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Bobby Abreu still has $9 million left on his contract, but he's a backup outfielder for the Angels.

Stuck behind Peter Bourjos, Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter, the Halos have been trying to trade him all winter and spring to no avail. They reportedly had a deal in place during spring training to send him to Cleveland, but that fell apart.

Despite Abreu's fast start, the Angels don't need a $9 million bench player, and that is why they will continue to try to trade him right up until the trade deadline.

Abreu won't give teams much in the field, but he's still a good enough hitter that a team will take him on at some point.

Aubrey Huff, San Francisco Giants

I don't think the Giants would deal Huff if they remain desperate for offensive production, but this is possible if a couple of things happen.

First, the Giants would need to be out of the playoff race. I don't think that will happen despite the Diamondbacks' talent in the NL West because the Giants have the pitching to stay in the Wild Card race. But, to quote Yankees' play-by-play man John Sterling, "You can't predict baseball."

Second, Huff would have to show teams that he's still capable of hitting home runs. He has a .279 average, but he's making his money because he used to be able to hit the long ball. After hitting just 12 in 2011, he needs to regain his power.

The likelihood Huff gets dealt would also be raised if Brandon Belt hits well in the majors and establishes himself as a good defensive first baseman.

Huff will make $10 million this year with a $10 million club option for 2013, but if he regains his form and hits .290 with 26 HR like he did in 2010, a contending team needing a bat could be interested.

Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros

Wandy Rodriguez has been a quality starting pitcher for several years now, but his contract has limited other teams' ability to pull the trigger and trade for the 33-year-old.

He's slated to make $10.5 million in 2012, $13.5 in 2013 and has a $13 million team option for 2014 that would become a player option should he be traded. Since he will be 35 in 2014, it's likely Wandy would exercise that option, putting an acquiring team on the hook for $26.5 million in 2013 and 2014, plus the remainder of his 2012 salary.

Rodriguez has had ERAs below 3.60 in each of his last four seasons, but unless the Astros agree to take on at least some of his contract in a deal, they will probably be saddled with him for the next two years.

However, he will stay on the trading block as long as he's in Houston, which is why his is a contract to watch.

Edwin Jackson, Washington Nationals

After failing to receive long-term contract offers this winter, Edwin Jackson signed a one year, $11 million contract with the Nats in hopes of getting one next year.

In the meantime, Jackson will be pitching for a young team who should be improved in 2012 but may not be contenders quite yet. If they're not, look for them to try to flip Edwin in July.

Jackson has been a pitcher whose results have not always matched his stuff, but last year he threw almost 200 innings with a 3.79 ERA splitting his time between the White Sox and the Cardinals.

If he puts up similar numbers this year in the nation's capital, one would think another team would be willing to take on the remaining dollars on his $11 million deal to make a playoff run.

Ted Lilly, Los Angeles Dodgers

Ted Lilly is expected to come off the DL to make his first start of the year on Saturday, and once he does, he will probably have other teams' scouts watching him in most of his starts.

Lilly has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball for several years. He has a 4.16 career ERA and his last season with an ERA over 4.00 was 2008. He does not allow a lot of hits and keeps the ball in the strike zone.

Despite the Dodgers' ownership change, they will likely not make the playoffs in 2011 and should begin to build for a future that does not include a 36-year-old pitcher, no matter his effectiveness.

Lilly's contract will make him difficult to deal, as he is slated to earn $25 million over the next two seasons, but if a team wants him, they should be able to get him.

Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox

Paul Konerko is quietly one of the best first baseman in baseball. The 36-year-old will hit his 400th home run this year and has a career .858 OPS. Despite getting up there in years, he hit .312 with 39 home runs in 2010 and .300 with 31 home runs in 2011. 

It's hard to imagine the ageless Konerko on any team but the White Sox, but if they do decide to go into rebuilding mode by trading players like him and Gavin Floyd, the Sox could net a very nice return.

He will make $12 million this year, which is very affordable considering what other first baseman in the league are being paid to put up similar numbers, and his acquiring team would also have him under contract in 2013 at just $13.5 million.

It would be difficult for the White Sox to trade a local icon like Konerko, but dealing him this year could be the right thing to do. 

Brett Myers, Houston Astros

The Houston Astros did a smart thing with Brett Myers this offseason, converting him from a starter to a closer so he could try to reinvent himself following a 7-14 record with a 4.46 ERA in 2011.

The Astros aren't trying to have Myers help them win games; they are trying to increase his trade value. They think they could get more for Myers and his $12 million salary—with a $10 million vesting option for 2013—with him as a reliever.

The Astros might be the worst team in baseball, and Myers is one of several veterans they will try to deal this year.

If he pitches well during the first half of the season, he could be coveted by other teams at the trade deadline.

Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians

Travis Hafner has missed a lot of time in his career with injuries, but when he's on the field, he produces.

He's a career .283 hitter with an .893 OPS, and hit 42 home runs back in 2006.

If the Indians fall out of the AL central race, Hafner is one of a few players on the roster who could be dealt. He will make $13 million in 2012 with a $13 million team option for 2013.

Assuming he's healthy—which, granted, is a big assumption considering he hasn't played a full season since 2007—he could be an asset for a team looking for hitting.

Unfortunately for the Indians, he's a full-time DH now and hasn't played the field since 2007. That pretty much limits his trade options to American League teams, but a team looking for offense like the Rays could be a logical fit.

Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers

If the Brewers are out of the playoff race come July, they will have a big decision to make regarding Zack Greinke.

The 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner is an ace, but his contract expires at the end of the year and the Brewers may not be able to re-sign him. They would hate to lose him for nothing like they did with CC Sabathia after the 2008 season.

The two sides broke off extension talks on Tuesday, so it is highly questionable whether the Brewers will be able to lock up Greinke before free agency.

If the Brewers do decide to deal him, there will be a long line of suitors bidding for his services.

Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs

Theo Epstein is rebuilding the Cubs, and the team's future will not include Ryan Dempster. The right-handed starting pitcher turns 35 in May, so he will likely be too old to contribute by the time the Cubs are ready to win.

In the meantime, Dempster is a reliable starter who could get the Cubs a prospect or two from a team looking for a veteran pitcher.

He has thrown over 200 innings every year since being converted from a closer to a starter in 2008, and other than 2011, he has posted a sub-4.00 ERA at the end of every season in that stretch. He strikes out a ton of hitters and doesn't give up too many hits.

He would be a valuable postseason pitcher for a contender, who would only have to take on about half of his remaining $14 million salary in 2012.

Derek Lowe, Cleveland Indians

At 38 years old, Derek Lowe is no longer capable of leading a major league staff.

But at his salary, if he pitches somewhat effectively for the Indians, a contending team looking for an innings-eater should look in Lowe's direction.

Lowe had a forgettable 2011, posting a 5.05 ERA and a 1.508 WHIP. However, the year before he won 16 games with a 4.00 ERA for the Braves. He's off to a good start this year, throwing seven shutout innings in his first start against the Blue Jays.

If the Lowe of old returns this year, he's a bargain. He will make $15 million this year, but the Braves will pay $10 million of that, leaving the Indians, or whoever trades for him, on the hook for the remaining $5 million.

David Wright, New York Mets

Let me say this right off the bat (no pun intended): the Mets will not trade David Wright. With attendance lagging and the team trying to recover from the damage done in the Madoff disaster, it would destroy fan support for the team to lose Wright the year after losing Jose Reyes.

Nevertheless, they should at the very least consider it, making it possible that a trade could happen if the dominoes fall a certain way. 

Despite the Mets' fast start, they are not going to make the playoffs this year, and they probably won't make them next year. When Wright's right (I promise, that's the last one), he's one of the best third basemen in the game, but his prime will probably be waning when the Mets are ready to contend. They should cash in now and get a boatload of prospects for him.

What might keep him with the Mets is his contract. He will make $15.25 million this year and has a $16 million club option for 2013, but Wright can void that option if he's traded to another team. One would think he would opt for free agency, meaning other teams would have to sacrifice at least two to three high-level prospects for only a few months of his services. 

Wright will probably stay in New York, but crazier things have happened and a deal might make sense.

Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox

Jake Peavy is unlikely to be dealt due to his contract and health issues, but if a team is willing to take him on, the White Sox would be fools not to let them.

The 2007 NL Cy Young Award winner has not made 30 starts since he took home the hardware, which was also the last season he threw 200 innings. In fact, he's only made 51 starts from 2009 through 2011.

In that time, he's really struggled. He had a 4.92 ERA last year and a 4.63 ERA the year before.

However, if he is able to regain his health and abilities, his contract only calls for $17 million this season before a $20 million team option for 2013 that will certainly be declined.

The White Sox would have to take on some salary to facilitate a trade, but you would think they would be willing to do so to save some cash and perhaps get a prospect in return.

Carlos Lee, Houston Astros

El Caballo has largely been forgotten by baseball fans because of his presence on the lowly Houston Astros, but he is still a serviceable outfielder in the last year of his contract.

He will make $18.5 million this year, and while his numbers no longer warrant such a high salary, the Astros could pick up some of the remaining contract and the acquiring team would obtain an outfielder who can provide some power in the middle of the order.

Lee's numbers have declined for the last few years, so it's possible they will continue to decline this year, but he hit 18 home runs in 2011 with a .275 average and .342 OBP. That's not great, but it's still effective. 

For what it's worth, he's off to a fast start this year—as of April 13, he's 8-for-22 with a home run and seven RBI.

Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs

Theo Epstein would love to be able to trade Alfonso Soriano, but it's hard to imagine any other team would take him on.

Soriano still has $54 million left on his contract ($18 million for the next three seasons), and his production has waned. He hit just .244 in 2011 with a pitiful .289 on-base percentage. His speed has virtually disappeared, although he is still good for at least 20 home runs per season.

If Soriano is able to get on base, and the Cubs are willing to pay most of his remaining salary, then a trade involving a team with payroll flexibility might be possible.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, they're probably stuck with him.

Johan Santana, New York Mets

Johan Santana has been excellent in his first two starts in 2012 after missing 2011 with shoulder surgery. If he keeps up his success, the Mets should capitalize and trade him for at least one high-level prospect. The Mets almost assuredly will not compete for a playoff spot this year and are unlikely to do so next year as well.

Santana will make $24 million this year and $25.5 million in 2013. He also has a $25 million team option for 2014 that should not be exercised.

He's a two-time Cy Young Award winner who is still just 33 years old. Assuming other teams are confident he can still be successful, which it appears he can, they should be jumping at the chance to trade for him. The Mets would probably have to pay some of his salary, but the more salary they agree to pay, the better the prospects they will receive for Santana.

Santana's a potential ace who holds tremendous value for teams looking for starting pitching but cannot afford Zack Greinke or Cole Hamels in free agency.

One reason teams might be hesitant to trade for Santana is a concern that his shoulder will not be able to hold up for a full season, but someone will make a move to acquire him before July 31.