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Week 1 Fantasy Baseball Revelations: National League

Jay ClemonsJun 7, 2018

Every Monday from April to Labor Day, we'll attack the week that was with baseball revelations for both the National and American Leagues.

Matt Kemp Looks Like He Hasn't Skipped a Beat—or Taken a Day off—from Last September

Have you seen the MLB All-Access clip in which Kemp is going through an all-day litany of physically taxing, core-enhancing drills to prep for the season?

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It confirms that Kemp wasn't just paying lip service to his roundabout promise of replicating last's year monster numbers (39 HR, 126 RBI, 115 runs, 40 steals and a .324 BA), despite his $160 million contract during the offseason and newly-attained superstar status in Tinseltown.

The man is driven to succeed on a personal and team level; he also has plenty of fuel from the "snub" of losing to Ryan Braun for National League MVP in 2011.

Against San Diego this weekend, Kemp notched one steal, two homers, six runs, eight RBI, a .412 average and a 1.212 OPS, a highly productive start to a marathon season.

Fantasy Owners Should Have a Little Perspective on Pitchers Chad Billingsley, Lance Lynn and Jeff Samardzija

Let's begin with Billingsley.

His weekend outing against the Padres (zero runs in 8.1 innings, one win, 11-1 K-BB ratio) was a thing of beauty and one of the seven best starts of his career. In six-plus seasons, Billingsley (71-52, 3.65 ERA, 914-442 K-BB) has demonstrated a regular knack for carving up San Diego hitters.

In turn, he also has shown a pattern of being only slightly above average after a monster outing.

Bottom line: Billingsley's solid contributions in wins, strikeouts and ERA have never been questioned; it's the uncomfortably high WHIP rate and declining strikeouts-per-nine ratio that frustrate fantasy owners.

It could be the theme for this season as well.

Regarding Lynn (one earned run in 6.2 innings, one win, 8-1 K-BB ratio vs. Milwaukee), he started 72 of 77 games in the minors, so the bullpen-to-rotation promotion—with Chris Carpenter injured—was hardly a surprise.

In NL-only leagues, Lynn represents a good free-agent buy, with an emphasis on wins, ERA and strikeouts. In mixed leagues, though, Lynn's best-case scenario for WHIP lies somewhere in the 1.33 to 1.38 range.

As for Samardzija (one earned run in 8.2 innings, one win, 8-0 K-BB ratio vs. Washington), he's a good bet for eight strikeouts every time he takes the hill, but forget about the zero walks.

Proceed with caution when bidding for him in free-agent auctions. Samardzija's an ideal No. 6 starter in mixed leagues.

The National League Will Produce Six Speedsters of 45-Plus Steals This Year

At this point, it doesn't matter in which order Michael Bourn (61 steals last year), Starlin Castro (four steals this weekend), Dee Gordon, Emilio Bonifacio (three steals), Cameron Maybin (two steals) and Jose Reyes (one steal) finish—just know that they're locks to be Nos. 1-6 in thefts by season's end, barring injury.

Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen and Shane Victorino may have 40-steal potential, but Gordon, Bonifacio, Bourn, Castro, Reyes and Maybin are the ones I fully expect to run for daylight every time they're staring at a vacant second base, regardless of situational settings.

For trade-seeking owners, Bonifacio and Maybin can still be had at relatively inexpensive prices. Just think creatively when talking shop with other GMs.

Apparently, Corey Hart Didn't Need Many Spring Training At-Bats to Find His Regular-Season Mojo

In his last five full seasons (2007-11), Hart collected a total of eight home runs in April. So it probably pays to be a little skeptical of Hart's power surge against the Cardinals (three HR, four extra-base hits, four RBI, .444 batting average)...even for those blown away by the sight of a 2.101 OPS on MLB.com.

Does the 30-year-old Hart have the capacity to duplicate his last healthy season of 2010—31 homers, 102 RBI, 91 runs, .283 average?

Absolutely.

But fantasy owners should also be wary of his history of nagging injuries (knee, oblique, etc.) and per-season average of 137 games played from 2007 to 2011.

Hart's a top-25 outfielder when all is right but probably isn't worth the one-for-one value of a top-15 pitcher or top-eight third baseman via trade just yet.

On your particular fantasy squad, Hart should be a No. 3 or 4 asset.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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