Justin Blackmon vs. Trent Richardson: Breaking Down Their Top-5 Upside

Does Trent Richardson or Justin Blackmon make more sense in the top five? 

Who has better value there?

Who has more upside? 

These questions have recently kick-started many furious debates on these two players, especially for the Cleveland Browns at No. 4 overall.

So, who's the better pick inside the revered top five? Intensive research (lots of reading), recent NFL trends and my gut feeling have brought me to a decisive conclusion. 

First, an in-depth look at both prospects.

Trent Richardson

Profile

You've read that he's the complete, all-around, do-everything, franchise running back—he is. At 5'9'' and nearly 230 pounds, Richardson has a bowling-ball frame and built a ridiculous amount of muscle onto that frame during his illustrious career at Alabama.

He's got the power to fight through tackles, great vision, a deceptive burst and good open-field speed. While he doesn't have LeSean McCoy-type agility, he has quick hips and can make defenders miss at the second and third levels. 

Richardson won't enter the NFL with any major injury history, but he did have his knee scoped prior to the combine. 

Upside

As appealing of a prospect as Richardson is, he's nearly tapped out in terms of upside. He played a considerable role in the Crimson Tide's offense since his freshman season and toted the rock 283 times in 2011.

You know what you're getting with Richardson, and that's a fine running back with all the talent, work ethic and collegiate experience you'd ever want. 

Justin Blackmon

Profile

Blackmon is a physically imposing 6'1'', nearly 210-pound possession receiver that has fantastic yards-after-the-catch ability. 

He was wildly productive in college, but a lot of that had to do with the spread system he operated in at Oklahoma State and the collection of relatively porous secondaries in the Big 12. 

Blackmon is a decent route runner, possesses good hands and is certainly capable of snatching balls in traffic—that's his greatest strength as a receiver.

The 2011 All-American doesn't have breakaway speed a la Mike Wallace, but he is a technician on short to intermediate routes and isn't totally unable to create separation.

His bigger frame and aggressive style of play will help him with one of the toughest aspects of transitioning to the NFL for wide receivers: beating press coverage.

Upside

Like Richardson, Blackmon is established at his respective position and doesn't have loads of upside. 

That doesn't mean he can't become a quality pass-catcher at the next level and most closely projects to Anquan Boldin.

NFL Trend

Guys like Andre Johnson, (No. 3 overall, 2003) Larry Fitzgerald, (No. 3 overall, 2004) and Calvin Johnson (No. 2 overall, 2007) have set quite the precedent for wideouts recently being taken in the top five. 

They've become the game's elite, and I don't believe Boldin is at their caliber in terms of being a game-changer. 

Over the last four seasons, 11 running backs have been selected in the first round, yet Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Mathews and Darren McFadden were the only runners to crack the top 20 in seasonal ground yardage over the last two years. 

Mark Ingram, Jahvid Best, C.J. Spiller, Beanie Wells, Donald Brown, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Jonathan Stewart and Darren McFadden have either been relatively disappointing or dealt with a multitude of injuries early in their careers. 

With running backs having the shortest shelf life of any position in the NFL, early career hiccups are magnified. 

Sure, none of those guys—maybe outside of McFadden—were as polished or supremely gifted and productive as Richardson, but the trend is worth noting especially with his punishing style of running that welcomes contact. 

Also, during that period, we've seen a dramatic increase in the emphasis on the passing game across the entire NFL. 

In 2008, Drew Brees led the NFL with 5,069 passing yards and 635 attempts. He and five other signal-callers broke the 4,000-yard plateau through the air. A total of 10 QBs threw the ball more than 500 times. 

Last season, 10 quarterbacks threw for over 4,000 yards and three broke the otherworldly 5,000-yard mark. There were 16 guys that let the ball go over 500 times. 

Quarterbacks are simply throwing the football more and have been successful in doing so. 

Running backs are undoubtedly still vital aspects of teams' offenses, but their roles have diminished in that span, too. More teams are using two- and even three-back systems. 

There were 24 backs who carried the ball more than 200 times in 2008. Last year, that number was only 19. 

Not a significant difference, but something that can't be ignored. 

Conclusion

Richardson's the safer prospect with a far greater chance to become an All-Pro player. However, short shelf life, higher prevalence of injuries and the league's recent trend of increased passing make me firmly believe Blackmon's more worthy of a top-five selection.

No, he probably won't become an elite, Fitzgerald-like receiver that makes a profound impact on every game. But, based on history, he'll play longer and plays a position that's become more crucial to a team's offense. 

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