Fantasy Baseball 2012: 10 Hitters Destined for Terrible Starts

Sorry, fantasy baseball managers: A few of the players that you are counting on this season will have a horrible April, and their struggles may even last longer than that.

Some players are simply slow starters, and you should stay patient with them. Other times, a player's skills are declining, and you are better off cutting bait. 

Identifying which one of those categories a player falls into is crucial in fantasy. It's also important to understand—even if you are not a current owner of one of these players—as a slow start often leads to an owner putting a player on the trading block or dropping him.

Here are ten hitters who will disappoint early, and advice on how owners and non-owners should handle them.

Mark Teixeira: 1B, New York

Two things that do not mix: Mark Teixeira and April.

For his career, in almost every major offensive statistic, Big Tex posts worse numbers in April than in any other month. He bats a lowly .237, the next lowest average in a month being .266 in June. He has hit 29 home runs in April. The next-lowest total for a month: 53 home runs in July.

Teixeira is the definition of a slow starter. But now that his performance has declined overall during the past two years—.256 in 2010 and .248 in 2011—his early-season woes are becoming more frustrating for owners. In his last three Aprils, his bating average is a putrid .196. 

Expect more of the same this year.

Teixeira is obviously a useful player, but given his steep, recent decline in batting average, I do not think he lives up to his second-round value. So, non-owners, hold back on the trade offers at the end of April.

Dan Uggla: 2B, Braves

Dan Uggla is a player who doesn't just under-perform in April, but does so in the next few months of the season as well.

In the last three years, during the span of April through June, Uggla has hit 42 home runs with 119 RBI. In the last three months of those seasons, he has hit 57 home runs with 151 RBI. He also batted .232 pre-All-Star break, while batting .283 after. 

Getting that type of power with a .283 average from a second baseman is absurd.

Uggla is your traditional second-half player, and represents a great trade target for current non-owners in July. 

David Ortiz: DH, Red Sox

David Ortiz has endured some pretty rough Aprils recently. Over the past three seasons, he has posted month-low totals in every main offensive category.

Notably, in that span, Ortiz has hit three home runs. For comparison, he hit 21 home runs in May.

I really like Ortiz as a fantasy option this season, considering what he consistently does from May to the end of September. So, owners, when he gets off to a slow start, do not panic. And non-owners, hope your league's owner thinks it is the end of Big Papi, and get ready to send trade offers to them.

Brett Gardner: OF, Yankees

Brett Gardner had a brutal April last season. He batted .194, struck out 20 times in 67 at-bats, and he did not even produce in steals as he only swiped four bags.

While Gardner had a very good April in 2010, it seems like an outlier given that his 2009 April was similar to his in 2011.

Gardner represents a strange fantasy player. Even with his April struggles, for his career, his average dips .38 points lower post-All-Star break. 

So if you are an owner, wait the month or two for him to get hot, and then deal him.

Michael Cuddyer: OF, Rockies

Michael Cuddyer is a useful player in fantasy. But in April, when fantasy owners are at their most reactionary, Cuddyer fails to deliver.

In his career, Cuddyer posts lows in April in the following categories: batting average, runs, doubles, home runs (tied with June), RBI, OBP and slugging percentage. Ouch. 

But at the end of the year, he usually has given you around a .280 batting average, 15-20 home runs, and 70-80 RBI and runs.

It's tough to do, but resist the temptation to trade Cuddyer after another inevitably poor April.

Adam Dunn: 1B, White Sox

While some of the players I have mentioned are simply second-half players, Dunn doesn't fit into that category. He will likely just have another poor full season.

Everyone knows Dunn was terrible last year, but his numbers are even worse than some think. He batted .159, hit 11 home runs, and posted 36 runs in 415 at-bats. That is horrendous for a player who was being drafted in the fourth or fifth round on average last season. 

I understand why drafters wanted to take a flyer on Dunn this season, as they are hoping last year was simply a fluke. But considering the low totals he posted last season in so many at-bats, I just think Dunn has lost it.

He batted .160 in April last season, and even though that number may improve this year, I do not think it will be by much. I expect to see Dunn on many waiver-wires soon. And if/when that occurs, do not bother picking him up.

Carlos Lee: OF, Astros

Understanding Carlos Lee's splits will be crucial for fantasy owners this season. 

Lee is one of those players who, when his performance is less than expected, owners will want to drop him. He is 35, on a weak Astros offense, and, simply put, no longer the player he once was.

With that said, when he struggles in April, if you own him, you should hold on. 

In the first month of 2009-2011, Lee has batted .208, averaged an on-base percentage of .251, and a slugging percentage of .349. In May of those three seasons, those numbers are bumped up to .295, .331 and .458. And the lowest batting average he has in any particular month is .262 in September. 

If you do not own Lee and see him on the waiver wire come the end of April, grab him.

Alex Rios: OF, White Sox

Rios had an awful 2011, batting .227 while posting his lowest home run total since 2005, as well as a career worst in steals. Given his excellent 2010, many see him as a bounce-back candidate. He may be, but that likely will not be evident in April.

In his last three Aprils, he has batted .227, hit just five home runs and picked up 27 RBI. The first month of last season was the worst of them, as he batted .163, hit one home run, and only knocked in six.

Some owners will probably not be patient be with Rios, given his "late-pick flyer" status, and they should not. I think Rios' 2011 is more indicative of the player he is now, so, if he hits the wire at the end of April, let him be.

Mark Reynolds: 3B, Orioles

In his career, Reynolds has hit 21 home runs and slugged .467 in the month of April. Now, those aren't terrible numbers by themselves, but when you consider Reynolds' profile, they need to be higher.

Reynolds has little value unless he is hitting a lot of home runs. He doesn't steal bases anymore and his low average and high strikeout rate will kill you. 

There is not much you can do as a Reynolds owner, except wait for the weather to heat up as he really turns the power on in the summer months, hitting 94 out of the park in June, July and August throughout his career.

Adam LaRoche: 1B, Nationals

LaRoche has long been known for his slow starts, and for good reason.

For his career, LaRoche bats .247 pre-All-Star break and .295 after. He also has five more home runs in the second half of the season, despite having almost 500 less at-bats than the first.

Many view him as someone to target in trades come July, but do not bother. His performance is declining (batted just .172 in 2011) and he is unlikely to stay healthy.

I see him posting the same old poor numbers in April, and matching those numbers throughout the season.