2012 MLB Predictions: Predicting AL and NL Division Winners and Wild Cards
With opening night upon us, it's time to make some predictions, baby!
Let's go through every division in both the National and American leagues, selecting each division winner, along with the Wild Cards.
Man, I'm glad baseball is back.
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American League
East Winner: Boston Red Sox
After blowing an 8.5-game lead in the Wild Card race and seeing major changes, including departures by Theo Epstein, Terry Francona and closer Jonathan Papelbon, it might come as a bit of surprise to some that I would pick the Red Sox here.
Yes, pitching will be a concern, especially after losing closer Andrew Bailey for four to five months after thumb surgery.
But this team will hit; you better believe that. With a lineup comprised of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkillis and a player I think will have a huge comeback year, Carl Crawford, this team will hit its way into the playoffs.
Central Winner: Detroit Tigers
Detroit isn't a perfect team—they don't have a top-notch rotation after Justin Verlander, for one thing.
But boy oh boy, this team should hit this year, namely in the middle of the lineup with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder raking all season long. And with Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde locking down the eighth and ninth innings, they won't give away many leads.
The offense could actually regress slightly this year—I'm not sure that Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila will match the very solid numbers they posted last year, for one—but the Tigers are still far and away the class of this division.
West Winner: Texas Rangers
For my money, this is the scariest lineup in baseball.
They were third in runs scored, second in home runs and first in batting average—in fact, they were top three, along with the Red Sox and New York Yankees in just about every offensive category—and they return essentially the same lineup from last year.
If Yu Darvish can replace C.J. Wilson, the pitching should be just fine, and the team that has represented the American League in the World Series the past two seasons should have another long postseason run in the cards.
Wild Cards: New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Yankees can flat rake, and though I have concerns with the team's pitching staff still—I think Michael Pineda is due for a regression once he returns from injury—this is a team that just finds its way into the playoffs at this point.
As for the Angels, for all the talk of Albert Pujols, this team will reach the postseason because of three men: Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and C.J. Wilson. Pujols alone won't make this lineup particularly scary, but the pitching staff sure does.
National League
East Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Yes, the rest of the division will be better. Yes, the lineup isn't very good without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, out early due to injury. Yes, they did get old fast.
No, it won't matter.
The Phillies still have Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. They added Jonathan Papelbon to close and have a pretty solid bullpen. And they have enough playoff-seasoned veterans that know what it takes to make it to and succeed in the playoffs.
If they can play small-ball and keep things close in the division in the absence of Utley and Howard, they'll do what they did last year—pull away from the pack in August and September. The window is closing, but it isn't closed yet.
Central Winner: Cincinnati Reds
The surprises begin. If the Reds get big seasons by the many young players they have, they could be deadly. If Joey Votta, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Drew Stubbs all have big years, this team could be scary.
The rotation is a question mark as well, though like the lineup is full of potential. Mat Latos, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey and Bronson Arroyo are the makings of a solid staff, and though the season-ending injury to Ryan Madson hurts, the bullpen shouldn't be a huge liability.
The Reds are my sleeper pick in a Central ripe for the taking after Albert Pujols departed the St. Louis Cardinals and Prince Fielder left the Milwaukee Brewers.
West Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks
I've debated this one because the Diamondbacks seem they could regress this year, opening the door for a team like the Colorado Rockies (who I think will be in the playoff race until the very end).
But with Justin Upton and a young, solid pitching staff, Arizona looks like a team that could duplicate the surprising success they found in 2011.
They could also finish third in this division. The West is a tough call.
Wild Cards: Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves
The loss of Prince Fielder will hurt, but Aramis Ramirez should pick up at least some of the slack. Plus, the Brewers have a nasty and underrated pair of pitchers headlining the rotation in Yovani Gallardo and Zach Greinke.
This second slot was a tough one, though I love the Braves starting rotation and bullpen, and that was the deciding factor. But teams like the St. Louis Cardinals, Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals, and yes, even the Colorado Rockies could make a play for the last Wild Card spot.
The American League has far more elite teams. But top to bottom, the National League is deeper.
World Series Prediction: Texas Rangers over Philadelphia Phillies
I love the Rangers, and I think they'll finally win that championship. As for the Phillies, enough people have left them for dead, the type of motivation a team that has spent the last several years as front-runners will use.
Oh, and did I mention they have Halladay, Lee and Hamels?
In a classic battle of hitting versus pitching, it will be the Rangers' pitching shutting down the Phillies offense that will give the Rangers the World Series in six games.
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