Mel Kiper Jr. 2012 NFL Mock Draft: Breaking Down ESPN Guru's Latest Edition

Well, well, well, Mr. Mel Kiper Jr. is at it again.

The esteemed ESPN NFL draft guru has released his latest Mock Draft--Version 4.0--with two full rounds of analysis.

The big night is 22 days away and soon enough we can stop speculating, start grading and get ready for another season of NFL football.

But we cannot stop speculating yet, and Mel is the one of the best, and sometimes most controversial, in the business.

Let's take a look at his latest projections and see just what type of excitement he has in store for us this time.

Picks 1-13: The "There Isn't Much Worth Arguing Here" Group

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

2. *Washington Redskins (5-11): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Matt Kalil, OT, USC

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

6. *St. Louis Rams (2-14): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

8. Miami Dolphins (6-10): Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

9. Carolina Panthers (6-10): Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

11. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): Luke Kuechly, LB Boston College

12. Seattle Seahawks (7-9): Quinton Coples, DE, UNC

13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Every pick in this group comes with valid reasoning. The quarterbacks at the top are far and away the most important, while Kalil, Richardson, Claiborne and Blackmon are all the top players at the positions (and top 10 talents) and fit needs for each respective team.

Jacksonville had an option between Ingram and Coples and there is no reason to argue with their choice, considering Coples has as much bust potential as he does boom. At least they know what they'll get with Ingram.

Tannehill is a must-have for the Dolphins since they terribly ruined the free-agent process and Poe, Reiff and Kuechly all fill needs for their teams and will make immediate impacts. No. 9 overall might be a bit high for Poe, but his combine performance has earned him some serious buzz.

Coples could fall, but he does have a ton of upside and fits into what the Seahawks are doing. Floyd, meanwhile, will give Kevin Kolb another weapon and will immediately see targets with Larry Fitzgerald opposite him.

*Rams trade No. 2 overall pick to Redskins for 2012, 2013, 2014 first-round picks and 2012 second-round pick.

Picks 14-21: The "Value vs. Need" Group

14. Dallas Cowboys (8-7): Mark Barron, S, Alabama

15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Fletcher Cox, DE, Mississippi State

16. New York Jets (8-8): Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama

17. Cincinnati Bengals (via OAK 8-8): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Chandler Jones, DE/OLB, Syracuse

19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois

20. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

Mark Barron is easily the best safety in this class, but he's not an elite prospect. He'll be very good (never great) and at No. 14 overall, Kiper has opted to go with need over value.

Fletcher Cox, meanwhile, is that versatile D-lineman that Andy Reid loves to draft despite there not being an immediate need at the position. Kiper opts for value here, and there is nothing wrong with that.

The Jets catch a bit of value on a prospect who fills a need, and Upshaw can help immediately. He doesn't have a very high ceiling, though, potentially leaving Gang Green hoping for more with a No. 16 overall pick.

DeCastro is a jackpot pick for the Bengals, as he fills need and provides great value.

Kiper, however, has both the Chargers and Bears reaching for pass rushers who are fringe first-round talents.

San Diego has been on the lookout for a pass-rushing threat for some time and has even missed on a few draft picks. Kiper has them in dangerous territory with Jones.

The Bears would love to put a dominant threat opposite Julius Peppers, but Mercilus is a one-year wonder who could just as easily wind up buried on the depth chart as he could in the starting lineup.

Dre Kirkpatrick has elite, top 10 potential, and he brings great value to a Titans team that just lost a physical secondary presence in Cortland Finnegan.

Kiper's use of the Bengals' second pick is a reach for need. Gilmore is a rising prospect, but this team would have preferred to see Kirkpatrick still on the board.

 

Picks 22-26: The "Lucky Us" Group

22. Cleveland Browns (via ATL 10-6): Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

23. Detroit Lions (10-6): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama

25. Denver Broncos (8-8): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

26. Houston Texans (10-6): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Cleveland and Detroit not only fill positions of need, but they find great value in it as well. Glenn is a versatile big man who can immediately help the Browns while Martin, once considered a potential top 10 pick, could be the offensive tackle the Lions have been looking for.

Martin needs to get stronger, but he does do a great job in the run game and will help this team.

The Steelers don't necessarily find a lot of value with Hightower, but he's a perfect fit for what they do defensively. He comes from a 3-4 defense orchestrated by an NFL-caliber coach at the collegiate level.

As for Brockers, he's an elite prospect whose sky is the limit. The Broncos need help shutting down the run, and the young redshirt sophomore will do it, but he could become a dominant force on the inside.

And Houston, who's desperately been looking for a top-flight wide receiver opposite Andre Johnson, gets a potential superstar in Kendall Wright. He'll benefit greatly learning from arguably the league's best receiver.

 

Picks 27-30: The "I Know What I Want, But Don't Know What I'm Getting" Group

27. New England Patriots (via NO 13-3): Shea McClellin, DE/OLB, Boise State

28. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC

29. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

The Patriots want youth and help down in the defensive front seven and McClellin, a guy who continues to rise up boards, brings a lot of grit, toughness and versatility. He'll work his butt off, but can he really succeed at the next level?

Green Bay's search for a pass rushing threat opposite Clay Matthews Jr. could end with Nick Perry, or they could just chalk him up as another potential-laden player with good size and athleticism who didn't want it enough. Their defensive scheme could help him, but it is on him to make the most of it.

Konz is a massive line prospect who should help the Ravens somewhere on the interior until he's ready to take over for Matt Birk at center. Until that time comes, they're passing up on defensive players who could help them now.

Hill is a rising combine freak with the field-stretching ability the 49ers lack (not sure what Randy Moss will do yet). He still has a ton to learn about playing wide receiver, though, and he is a true boom-or-bust prospect. Playing with Moss would be a great opportunity for him, though.

 

Picks 31 and 32: The "We Played in the Super Bowl and We'll Do What We Want" Picks

31. New England Patriots (13-3): Derek Wolfe, DL, Cincinnati

32. New York Giants (9-7): Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

It would be surprising to see Belichick make both his first-round picks, but the Pats do have that many needs on defense. Kiper plays to the coach's tendency to take players who don't typically stand out on other radars, and it is hard to argue with that.

The Giants did sign Martellus Bennett, but that was only a one-year contract and we saw two of their top tight ends go down with ACL injuries in the Super Bowl.

Fleener is the top player at the position, and the Giants love to draft for value; they just happen to land need with it, too.

 

Round 2

 

Picks 33-42

33. St. Louis: Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State

34. Indianapolis: Kendall Reyes, DT, UConn

35. Minnesota: Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame

36. Tampa Bay: Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska

37. Cleveland: Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State

38. Jacksonville: A.J. Jenkins, WR, Illinois

39. St. Louis (via Wash): Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

40. Carolina: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

41. Buffalo: Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State

42. Miami: Andre Branch, DE/OLB, Clemson

Kiper has a lot of fringe first-round talents up in this group (Worthy, Reyes, Adams and Janoris Jenkins chief among them) and finds good fits for most of the teams.

Worthy and Reyes are arguably the best players available and fit needs for St. Louis and Indianapolis.

Weeden is an interesting pick for the Browns. With Colt McCoy returning, Cleveland would likely open with a quarterback battle between the two. The Browns aren't ready to compete, so if they were to take the 28-year-old rookie in the second round they'd be sacrificing a chance to add a potential developing star.

The Oklahoma State quarterback is capable of starting immediately, but how much good that does the Browns right now is up for debate.

Adams is a more solid value for the Rams and he could be a right tackle starter for some time.

Kiper gives the Panthers arguably the most value in the draft with Janoris Jenkins, but they'll have to hope he keeps his head clear and stays on the field. He'd be a huge help to them if he matures, though.

Quick is a bit of reach, and Kiper could've gone with more proven receivers at this spot for Buffalo.

Miami, after landing their quarterback in the first round, would be wise grab a pass rusher such as Branch at this spot. This is a really solid pick by Kiper for the Dolphins.

Picks 43-52

43. Seattle: Ronnell Lewis, LB, Oklahoma

44. Kansas City: Devon Still, DT, Penn State

45. Dallas: Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin

46. Philadelphia: Zach Brown, OLB, UNC

47. New York Jets: Bobby Massie, OT, Mississippi

48. New England (via Oak): Josh Robinson, CB, Central Florida

49. San Diego: Doug Martin, RB, Boise State

50. Chicago: Rueben Randle, WR, LSU

51. Philadelphia (via Ariz): Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson

52. Tennessee: Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall

The Seahawks and Chiefs both find potential starters here in the second while the Cowboys, who Kiper had reach for a safety in the first, can only hope that Zeitler helps them boost the run game in 2012.

If the Eagles can teach Brown how to tackle, they might be on to something with the physically gifted Tar Heel, but there are no guarantees.

Massie, meanwhile, is more insurance for a Jets line that struggled last season.

Kiper then makes his most mysterious pick of the draft having the Patriots steal a page out of the Raiders' book (they essentially stole this pick from them too) by drafting combine sensation Josh Robinson. Can Belichick work wonders with a kid who's primarily known only for his speed?

The ESPN guru then gives the Chargers a steal-and-a-half with Doug Martin. The Boise State back will be expected to take over Mike Tolbert's role from last year.

Reviews on Randle are mixed, but at this stage in the draft, the Bears don't have much to lose on him while the Eagles wind up with a great value pick at No. 51, courtesy of Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals. Whether or not Andy Reid finds a way to use a tight end remains to be seen.

Curry is a high-motor pass rusher who will get a chance to jump into the rotation in Tennessee.

Picks 53-63

53. Cincinnati: Brandon Taylor, S, LSU

54. Detroit: Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana

55. Atlanta: Jeff Allen, OT, Illinois

56. Pittsburgh: Kelechi Osemele, OL, Iowa State

57. Denver: LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

58. Houston: Bill Bentley, CB, Louisiana-Lafayette

--New Orleans forfeits pick--

59. Green Bay: Jared Crick, DL, Nebraska

60. Baltimore: Terrell Manning, LB, N.C. State

61. San Francisco: Brandon Brooks, OG, Miami (Ohio)

62. New England: Amini Silatolu, OG, Midwestern State

63. New York Giants: David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech

Kiper gives both the Bengals and Lions solid additions to their secondaries and both Taylor and Johnson could one day be starters. 

The Broncos, at No. 57, add the speedy James for Oregon and Kiper may actually be on to something with the move. There is no telling if Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno can stay healthy, and James gives them a complementary option regardless.

Crick was once a former first-round talent and holds decent value, while Brooks to San Francisco fills a depth need at guard.

And finally, Kiper gives the Giants arguably the best pick of the last 11 in David Wilson. The Virginia Tech back has very good explosion and toughness and will be a solid complement to Ahmad Bradshaw now that Brandon Jacobs is gone.

It must also be mentioned that Tom Coughlin is the best option possible to help Wilson quell his case of fumble-itis.