2012 NFL Mock Draft: Justin Blackmon Falls to the Jets and a 4th QB in the First

1. Indianapolis - Stanford QB Andrew Luck - Don't believe reports that the Colts haven't decided who they're taking yet. Expect contract negotiations with Luck to begin before the draft.

2. Washington (from St. Louis) -  Baylor QB Robert Griffin III - Washington has seen enough to know they want him.

3. Minnesota - USC OT Matt Kalil - No one will take the bait to trade up ahead of Cleveland for Ryan Tannehill, so the best left tackle in the draft is the Vikings "consolation."

4. Cleveland - Alabama RB Trent Richardson - He wouldn't be the pick if it was up to me, but the Browns have shown a tendency to make the safe, conservative play in the draft under Heckert/Holmgren, and Richardson fits that strategy.

5. Tampa Bay - LSU CB Morris Claiborne - Forget the wonderlic score. Claiborne is too good to pass up, and the Bucs still have a long-term need at corner after the Eric Wright signing. The Bucs are fortunate to be guaranteed one of the top five players in the draft, because there's a drop in value at number six.

6. St. Louis (from Washington) - Mississippi State DT Fletcher Cox - Cox looks more like one of the truly elite talents in this draft at his position the more I watch him. He also feels more like a Jeff Fisher cornerstone player than Justin Blackmon does.

7. Jacksonville -- South Carolina DE/OLB Melvin Ingram - Wide receiver is deep enough to address later in the draft, but there's only one guy who can make a defensive impact doing everything from being a pass rushing DT to dropping in coverage. If Gene Smith doesn't find a suitable trade-down partner, he's the pick.

8. Miami - Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill  - The only real question about Tannehill at this point seems to be whether anyone will try to leapfrog the Dolphins pick to snipe him. The Dolphins might have to trade up to with Jacksonville or St. Louis as an assurance that it won't happen.

9. Carolina - UNC DE Quinton Coples - After Fletcher Cox is gone, Carolina shifts their focus from defensive tackle to defensive end. Building a great pass rush is crucial to overtaking New Orleans and Atlanta.

10. Buffalo - South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore - The Bills would be tempted by Michael Floyd in this scenario, but Gilmore's athletic gifts and aggressive style are an excellent match for their defense.

11. Kansas City - Boston College LB Luke Kuechly - The Chiefs could go with a boom/bust defensive tackle, but the ability to pair Kuechly with Derrick Johnson is too enticing to pass up.

12. Seattle - Stanford OG David DeCastro - The Seahawks could opt for a pass rusher here, but DeCastro's high floor and boost to the offense makes it hard to go in another direction.

13. Arizona - Iowa OT Riley Reiff - Reiff can start at right tackle from day one and possibly project to left tackle long-term. The Cardinals have to make a big commitment to improving the offensive line.

14. Dallas - LSU DT Michael Brockers - It's getting hard to breathe as the Cowboys have seemingly been linked to half of the players in the first round over the last few days. A trade down is likely, but if they stay home, one of the athletic men mountain DTs should be the pick.

15. Philadelphia - Memphis DT Dontari Poe - Philadelphia Inquirer reporter Jeff McLane passed on that Poe was at Eagles HQ today, and introduced by DL coach Jim Washburn as "Fletcher Cox." McLane also said Washburn tried to go the other way when he saw the reporters. Hmm, what could that mean? 

16. New York Jets - Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon - Shocking, I know, but Blackmon falling well out of the top 10 is far from impossible. None of the teams between 11 and 14 will be looking WR, and prospects at other positions could be more attractive to the teams picking between six and 10.

17. Cincinnati (from Oakland) - Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd - Floyd could go as early as number seven, but the depth of wide receiver in this draft will have teams asking if it's smarter to take a player at a position with a steeper drop in quality from the first round to the second. 

18. San Diego - Illinois DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus - Mercilus is almost surely going to go between 17-20 - if he lasts that long.

19. Chicago - Baylor WR Kendall Wright - The Bears can't count on Johnny Knox's return, and a speedy wide receiver to open things up for Brandon Marshall to operate is a must.

20. Tennessee - Alabama CB Dre Kirkpatrick- Denied the shot at Mercilus, the Titans add a corner who can push to start right away. With the team looking at free-agent center Dan Koppen, they may be considering passing on Peter Konz.

21. Cincinnati - Georgia OG/OT Cordy Glenn - Glenn's versatility, size, and athleticism keep him on the short list of players the Bengals will consider at their two first-round selections.

22. Cleveland (from Atlanta) - Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden - Perhaps a more accurate projection would be for the Browns to trade back up into the late first from their No. 37 pick to snag Weeden, but if they're willing to do that, they should be willing to take him at No. 22.

23. Detroit - Stanford OT Jonathan Martin - The Lions have gotten a strong signal to avoid character risk players in the last week. Martin can push Gosder Cherilus at right tackle and potentially take over for Jeff Backus at left tackle in a few years.

24. Pittsburgh - Alabama LB Dont'a Hightower - It really feels like Hightower has been the target from day one, and no one is going to stop the Steelers from taking him.

25. Denver - Alabama SS Mark Barron - The Broncos have thrown a ton of picks at this position in recent years, but the choice of Barron should end that trend.

26. Houston - Alabama LB Courtney Upshaw - I can see Upshaw going as high as No. 12, but he could also fall to the end of the first because he isn't a flashy prospect. The Texans have the luxury of going BPA this year.

27. New England - USC DE/OLB Nick Perry - Perry's outstanding athletic ability could get him off the board earlier than this, but his deficiencies in run defense and coverage could drop him to the Patriots, who need his speed rushing from the edge.

28. Green Bay - Boise State OLB Shea McClellin - Like the Steelers, the Packers have focused on a prospect at a position of need that has a very a high chance of being there when they pick in the first. McClellin's energy is a mirror of Clay Matthews intensity.

29. Baltimore - Wisconsin C Peter Konz - The Ravens luck out as their ideal first-round pick falls to them in this scenario.

30. San Francisco - Stanford TE Coby Fleener - Try as I might, I can't break this combination up unless I mock Fleener at an earlier pick. Fit, need, connection to head coach Jim Harbaugh and overall stock all point to Fleener staying in the bay area.

31. New England  - Penn State DE Devon Still - Still has never played up to his potential, but the Patriots can afford to take on the risk that the light doesn't go on in the pros because they have so many picks and need talent on the defensive line.

32. New York Giants - Midwestern State OL Amini Silatolu - Silatolu has been creeping up boards for the last two months, which makes sense for a small school player that teams have just been getting acquainted with.