Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy 2012: Alternative No. 1 Picks for Bold Players

Each and every year, there is a select group of players who are all fair game for the No. 1 overall pick in a fantasy baseball draft. If you have the first pick in your draft, there are some guys you're just supposed to pick.

To give you an example, last year it was guys like Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria. In fact, those five players all topped ESPN's 2011 fantasy baseball rankings.

Guess what happened?

Pujols had the worst season of his career, Ramirez had the worst season of his career, Crawford had one of the worst seasons of any hitter in recent memory and Longoria hit just .244. Only Cabrera managed to have an outstanding season.

Lesson learned? That there are no guarantees in fantasy baseball, even when it comes to the players who are supposed to be the best in the business.

So, why limit your sights to the players who are "supposed" to be the best in the business? Why not be bold with your No. 1 pick?

If I've gone and gotten you all riled up, here are five players you should consider.

5. Ryan Braun, OF (Milwaukee Brewers)

Ryan Braun ended up having a season worthy of a top pick in 2011, as he hit .332 with 33 home runs, 111 RBI, 109 runs and 33 stolen bases. He did it all.

Braun is not in the discussion for the No. 1 pick this year for a couple reasons. First, a lot of people are suspicious of him because of what happened over the offseason. Second, a lot of people have doubts about how productive he can be without Prince Fielder around to watch his back.

Let's give Braun a little credit. He's been a .318 hitter since the start of the 2009 season, with an average of 30 home runs and more than 100 RBI and 100 runs per season. Was Braun able to do this because of Fielder's protection and performance enhancers, or because he's truly a great player?

If you pick Braun No. 1 overall, you'll be gambling on the idea that he's truly a great player. If it turns out he is truly a great player, his numbers aren't going to decline at all. In that case, you will not have wasted the top pick.

4. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF (Boston Red Sox)

The loose consensus among fantasy pundits is that there's simply no way Jacoby Ellsbury can repeat what he did in 2011. He's just not going to be able to match a .321 average, 32 home runs, 105 RBI, 119 runs and 39 stolen bases.

To that, I say this: Why not?

It would be one thing if Ellsbury started hot and then cooled down as the season went along. That would indicate that he wore down and that pitchers figured him out.

The exact opposite happened. Ellsbury was very good in the first half of the season, and he exploded in the second half of the season. Amazingly, he was at his best in the season's final month, hitting .358 with eight home runs in September.

The power numbers need to be there again for Ellsbury to warrant a No. 1 overall pick. But if he hits anywhere between 25-30 home runs while maintaining all the other numbers he put up last year, he'll be totally worth a top selection.

Basically, all Ellsbury needs to do is prove that his breakout season in 2011 wasn't a fluke. If it wasn't, he's already a bona-fide fantasy superstar.

3. Justin Upton, OF (Arizona Diamondbacks)

Justin Upton is already being viewed as a potential Top Five pick. No matter what, he shouldn't leave the first round in a 12-team league.

Upton's appeal is based partially on what he did last season, but it's mostly based on how much better he might be. Upton hasn't peaked yet, so the fact that he just recorded a season with a .289 average, 31 home runs and 21 stolen bases is scary.

If that's not the peak of his ability, it stands to reason that he'll put up monster numbers when he does reach his peak.

There is risk when it comes to Upton, though. We were all excited about him after the 2009 season, but he proceeded to have a disappointing season in 2010. The potential regression shouldn't keep him from being a first-round pick, but it does keep him well outside the No. 1 pick discussion.

It's a good bet that he will be, though, and sooner rather than later. Jumping the gun would be bold, but it wouldn't be stupid either.

2. Ian Kinsler, 2B (Texas Rangers)

Surprised to see Ian Kinsler on this list?

You shouldn't be. He's the second-best fantasy second baseman behind Robinson Cano, and he's recorded 30-30 seasons in two of the last three years. His combination of power and speed is unparalleled amongst his fellow second basemen.

The only trouble with Kinsler is that he doesn't hit for average, which keeps all his other numbers in check. His first 30-30 season in 2009 came with a .253 average, and his second 30-30 season last year came with a .255 average.

Consider this: What happens if Kinsler hits .300 this year?

Then, we're talking about a second baseman with a .300 average, 30-plus home runs, 30-plus steals, well over 100 runs and likely well over 100 RBI.

We haven't seen a second baseman like that since Alfonso Soriano, and even he wasn't that good.

1. Hanley Ramirez, 3B (Miami Marlins)

Hanley Ramirez used to be in the No. 1 overall pick discussion. In fact, he was widely considered the best player in baseball following the 2009 season.

Ramirez is nowhere near the No. 1 pick discussion this year, and that's what happens when you play in just 92 games and manage just a .243 average with 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases.

I wouldn't be too worried about Ramirez, though. He's healthy, he's happy and, most importantly, he'll be batting in the middle of one of the most stacked lineups in the National League.

Consider who Ramirez is going to have hitting in front of him this season. Jose Reyes will be batting leadoff, and Emilio Bonifacio will be batting second. The two of them are going to create a ton of RBI opportunities for Ramirez, and he's going to make good on them as long as he stays healthy this season.

Better health will also bring a .300 average, 25-30 homers, more than 100 runs and probably 30 stolen bases as well. The pieces are in place for Ramirez to go back to being a fantasy monster.