5 MLB Teams That Will Get Off to Terrible Starts in the 2012 Season

Only two more days until Opening Day, and as always, there is speculation surrounding which MLB teams will get off to a great start and make a run for the playoffs in April. On the other hand, of course, there are also questions looming on which teams will struggle out of the gate.

Pitching is obviously the most important aspect of winning. Without strong pitching, it’s hard to stay in the game and be in control, so I’m focusing mainly on pitching to determine the teams that will struggle the most at the beginning of the 2012 season.

The Mariners, who really hit the wall last season, are my No. 1 team that will have a hard time getting into the swing of things this month. The Mets, Astros and Pirates are my National League teams with tough luck opening the season.

The unlikely Indians round out my top five MLB teams sure to have terrible starts in 2012.

1. Seattle Mariners

I think the Mariners are going to struggle very much this season and most likely finish last in the American League West for a second straight season. Although they feature ace right-handed, flame-throwing Felix Hernandez, they are going to need to get production from the rest of their starting five.

Veterans Jason Vargas and Kevin Millwood will be the second and third starters, and although they’ve established themselves in the major leagues, I don’t see them being dominant and overpowering.

Millwood lost 16 games for the Orioles in 2010 and has really not been himself since his early days with the Rangers. Although Vargas has experience at the MLB level, he’s never enjoyed much success, as he sits with a 28-39 record with a 4.50 career ERA.

No. 4 starter Blake Beavan has only pitched in 15 MLB games and is 23 years old. Hector Noesi holds the fifth and final spot in the rotation, and he’s only appeared in 30 MLB games and is 25 years old.

Overall, their starting staff is weak, and I think this will be the major challenge the Mariners have to face this month. As for their offense, Chone Figgins and Ichiro are the lone standout names in the starting lineup. Four of the nine starters have two years' experience or less at the MLB level.

The Mariners are going to need young players to have breakout seasons; I just don’t see that happening.

2. New York Mets

The Mets are in the second-toughest division in MLB, behind the American League East, of course. This is going to be a trying year for the team from Queens.

Losing superstar shortstop Jose Reyes to the Marlins is a huge blow, as they’ve lost their spark plug at the top of the order. Based solely on this loss, I feel like the Mets are going to really struggle.

As for their starting rotation, Johan Santana, who has not pitched since 2010 after missing the entire 2011 season due to a shoulder injury, will be the Opening Day starter. Santana was one of the best pitchers in the league before he was dealt that awful blow, but the question will be whether he can return to form, and he’ll probably struggle at first.

Other than that, behind Santana, the rotation only features average starting pitching. Jonathon Niese, R.A. Dickey and Mike Pelfrey have filled the second, third and fourth spots in the rotation, respectively. Dillon Gee, who had a breakout season in 2011, might fall victim to the “sophomore” slump, which has plagued many pitchers in the past—most notably, Brian Matusz of the Orioles last year.

Offensively, third baseman David Wright is a question mark because he was injured last season, only playing in 102 games. Also, he got off to a slow start out of the gates by only hitting at a .240 clip last April. Outfielder Jason Bay, who has struggled since leaving the Red Sox, is another question mark.

There are lots of questions looming for the Mets, and I think the Reyes deal really hurt them. Santana returning is a great sign for them, but we’ll see how fast he can return to form.

3. Houston Astros

The Astros, who struggled mightily last season—they finished last in the National League Central—really have their work cut out for them again this year. Their starting pitchers are the main reasons why I feel like the Astros will be at the bottom of the barrel.

Three of the starters have two years' experience or less pitching at the MLB level. There is no way a team can expect to win and be consistent with young, developing hurlers. Bud Norris, Jordan Lyles and Kyle Weiland have a combined eight wins at the major league level, paired with 22 losses.

Wandy Rodriguez, who stepped in the last couple of seasons as their ace, is just an average pitcher and really shouldn’t even be considered an ace. There just isn’t anyone else who can fill that role right now. Former Phillie J.A. Happ underperformed last season, as he went 6-15 and sported a 5.35 ERA.

As for their offense, the only established name that stands out to me is Carlos Lee, and he’s not getting any younger. I think it’s quite obvious he’s passed his prime and is rounding out his career with Houston.

After the loss of Hunter Pence last season, I really don’t see the Astros offense being a threat at all.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates

After a surprising run last season at the .500 mark, the Pirates, as has been the case for the last 17 years or so, look to have a tough season ahead of them.

They brought in former Orioles ace Erik Bedard from the Mariners to lead their pitching staff. Bedard has struggled with injuries since Seattle acquired him from Baltimore. Last season, he sported a 5-9 record with a 3.62 ERA. He hasn’t been himself since he won 13 games in his last season with the Birds in ’07.

Charlie Morton, who broke out last season and won 10 games, although he lost 10 as well, pitched in tough-luck games and deserved a better fate. The question will be if he can repeat this season.

Other than that, their rotation is just average at best. James McDonald, Jeff Karstens and Kevin Correia round out the rest of the rotation. McDonald and Karstens are still young and really haven’t established themselves at the major league level. Correia, who led the Pirates in wins for most of the season, also struggled with his control and ERA (4.79).

As for their offense, outfielder Andrew McCutchen is the only name that really jumps out at me in the lineup. He’s still young and has a lot to prove at the major league level, though. He’s the leader on the team, and if they’re going to have any shot at playing .500, he needs to step it up.

5. Cleveland Indians

We all remember how the Indians jumped out to their great start last season, and it looked as if they were going to win the Central division hands down. We’ll see what this season has in store for the Indians.

Justin Masterson will head the rotation, and he really performed well last year. He was the rock in their rotation, so there isn’t really a question mark around him. But after that, it gets a little fuzzy.

Former Rockie Ubaldo Jimenez struggled mightily last season after breaking out in 2010 and showing the world what he could do (10-13, 4.68 ERA in ‘11). Former Atlanta Brave Derek Lowe will man the third spot in the rotation. After a tough final year with the Braves (9-17, 5.05 ERA), it will be interesting to see if he can bounce back.

Josh Tomlin and Jeanmar Gomez round out the Indians rotation. Although Tomlin won 12 games last season, his 4.25 ERA is a bit high and might be something to watch. Gomez only has 22 major league games under his belt and hasn’t established himself as a starter at the major league level yet.

As for their offense, more questions loom. Designated hitter Travis Hafner, who hasn’t been himself the last couple of seasons, will look to get back on track. Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana have all established themselves as good position players in the past, but their offensive power numbers need to improve.

The Indians have the cards in order to perform very well this year and possibly even contend. There are just too many question marks at this point on who is going to perform well and who is going to have a breakout season.