Justin Blackmon: On Being Worth a Top 10 Pick vs. Actually Going Top 10

As the draft gets closer, lines between prediction and opinion will start to blur, and much time will be wasted arguing when the arguers may actually agree on the topic. After Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill, there might not be a more debated player than Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon.

A simple distinction can clear up a lot of debates before they ever take place: Are we talking about Blackmon being worth a top-0 pick, or Blackmon actually going in the top 10?

I made my case for Blackmon being overrated and not worth a top-10 pick, here. I won't rehash that stance, but I will say that I feel stronger about it the more I watch tape of Blackmon and other potential top-10 prospects.

Yet, Blackmon will still appear in the top 10 of some of the mocks I do between now and April 26, possibly even in my final mock before the real deal. How can those stances be reconciled?

Blackmon has been projected in the top six since January

It shouldn't affect NFL war rooms, but they do consume mock drafts to project scenarios, and the cumulative effect of seeing Blackmon that high almost routinely could affect the perception of his stock. I believe Blackmon's status as a top-six pick in almost every mock is a result of his production more than his tape, which leads to my second point...

Sometimes job security trumps better judgment in NFL war rooms

It is very easy for us to make bold predictions and build a big board true to our beliefs and talent evaluation, because our jobs aren't based on the decisions made with the help of our work. When your job rides on the outcome of your work, the work can be skewed by that consideration.

Blackmon's production is overwhelming. His tape—Reminiscent of a young Terrell Owens—is strong enough to defend as a high pick. The reality is that it is easier to defend Blackmon as a top-10 pick in hindsight than it is to defend a more talented but less productive collegiate prospect.

Justin Blackmon falling to No. 10 (or even later) would be one of the surprises of the first round, but it shouldn't be for those that have spent time reviewing his film. Still, Blackmon going in the top six or even as high as No. 4 shouldn't surprise draftniks, who are increasingly moving him out of their top 10 due to the psychology of NFL war rooms.