Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2012: Shaky Pitchers Worth Gambling on

The fact of the matter is that you can't fill your fantasy rotation with Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander. Actually, maybe you could, but I would hate to see your offense. 

Thankfully, you don't need to forsake your offense. You can grab these guys late in the draft or even on the waiver wire in some leagues, and have a nice rotation. 

Jonathan Sanchez, Kansas City Royals

Why He's a Gamble

With Sanchez, it comes down to control. He is extremely hard to hit, but gets himself into jams too often by walking hitters and falling behind. That forces him to challenge hitters over the plate, which leads to loud contact. In addition to that, he's now entering the American League for the first year. 

Why He's Worth Pitching

The stuff is absolutely electric. He has thrown a no-hitter and is a genuine threat to do that every time he takes the hill, no exceptions. 

Even in many of Sanchez's bad starts with the Giants, he found a way to get into the sixth inning (or beyond) with only one or two earned runs allowed. He is a strikeout machine and doesn't allow a lot of big innings when things are going right, or even not so great. 

Yes, every now and again a challenge fastball gets rocked, but he often works his way out of the jams with little to no damage done. The pitch counts go up, but the ERA remains quite respectable, and the strikeout totals are money in the bank. 

Dixon's Projections

IP	H	BB	ER	W	K	ERA	WHIP
174	133	101	77	12	183	3.98	1.34

Bud Norris, Houston Astros

Why He's a Gamble

It's pretty cut and dry here. A pitcher on the Astros is not going to get you a lot of wins. The other numbers are a concern, as the National League Central is a division that really benefits hitters. 

Why He's Worth Pitching

Norris is trending in the right direction. Take a look at the WHIP totals for his first three years in the league.

Season	WHIP	Innings
2009	1.509	55.2
2010	1.484	153.2
2011	1.328	186

The more experiences he gets, his innings go up and the WHIP goes down. That is a trend in the right direction. For a pitcher who's just turning 27, that's what you want to see. 

Don't worry about the hitters he'll be facing, or where those at bats will come. Norris is right around a strikeout an inning, and doesn't walk players at a high rate. The ERA and WHIP are solid, and the rest of the categories will be strong, making up for the fact that he won't many games in Houston. 

Dixon's Projections

IP	H	BB	ER	W	K	ERA	WHIP
183	168	64	68	11	180	3.34	1.27

Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants

Why He's a Gamble

There are a few reasons. One comes from Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area, who is reporting that Vogelsong won't be starting the season in San Francisco. 

"

I'm told that Ryan Vogelsong is expected to start the season opener for Triple-A Fresno on April 5 (at Tucson). Then one more rehab start.

— Andrew Baggarly (@CSNBaggs) March 27, 2012"

The other is that he's a 34-year-old who hadn't enjoyed a great deal of success before last season, which isn't exactly a sign of a Cy Young contender. 

Why He's Worth Pitching

Largely, it's the ballpark and the division. No, he doesn't strike hitters out at a high rate like the previous two arms, but he doesn't need to. Vogelsong takes half of his starts in San Francisco's AT&T Park, and then another few in PETCO Park and Dodger Stadium. These are all pitcher's parks. 

The National League West is not exactly full of great hitters either. The ERA and WHIP will be low.

Also, even in a terrible offensive season last year, the Giants did win 86 games. Their pitchers are in position to get wins in nearly all of the starts they make.

Dixon's Projections

IP	H	BB	ER	W	K	ERA	WHIP
173	158	61	65	13	133	3.38	1.26

Dixon's 2012 Preseason Rankings and Projections

Pick	Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG.	W	K	ERA	WHIP
1.	Matt Kemp, OF	98	34	103	41	.304
2.	Miguel Cabrera, 1B	108	34	114	2	.328
3.	Albert Pujols, 1B	102	41	111	7	.317
4.	Robinson Cano, 2B	107	29	108	6	.324
5.	Jacoby Ellsbury, OF	118	26	91	39	.319
6.	Jose Bautista, 3B/OF	107	42	103	6	.292
7.	Troy Tulowitzki, SS	93	31	98	9	.303
8.	Adrian Gonzalez, 1B	107	36	115	1	.309
9.	Joey Votto, 1B	109	35	107	6	.312
10.	Ryan Braun, OF	98	29	107	37	.317
11.	Prince Fielder, 1B	110	41	121	2	.289
12.	Roy Halladay, SP						22	212	2.13	1.08
13.	Dustin Pedroia, 2B	112	23	82	23	.316
14.	Justin Verlander, SP						21	226	2.21	1.04
15.	Evan Longoria, 3B	95	33	97	8	.280
16.	Justin Upton, OF	103	36	105	38	.278
17.	Ryan Zimmerman, 3B	89	25	89	4	.312
18.	Clayton Kershaw, SP						15	216	2.33	1.10
19.	Jose Reyes, SS	101	13	61	37	.309
20.	Andrew McCutchen, OF	91	27	92	37	.293
21.	Ian Kinsler, 2B	101	28	74	31	.281
22.	Felix Hernandez, SP						14	223	2.12	1.01
21.	Hanley Ramirez, SS	91	25	92	29	.295
22.	David Wright, 3B	82	24	86	14	.294
23.	Mark Teixeira, 1B	101	39	104	5	.261
24.	Matt Holliday, OF	93	26	92	13	.320
25.	Cliff Lee, SP						18	202	2.37	1.12
26.	Mike Stanton, OF	87	44	106	6	.261
27.	Alex Rodriguez, 3B	94	28	92	5	.287
28.	Jered Weaver, SP						19	211	2.46	1.18
29.	Adrian Beltre, 3B	84	27	91	7	.283
30.	Jay Bruce, OF	93	34	101	14	.278

Note: Saves are also a category in standard fantasy leagues, but no closer is included in the top 30, so they are omitted from the projections. 

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