Fantasy Baseball 2012: 5-Minute Guide for Faking Your Way Through a Draft

I'd like to present the "Five-Minute Guide to Faking Your Way Through a Fantasy Baseball Draft," a piece that was largely inspired by the fake book, Performing Heart Surgery For Dummies.

Now, I'm not saying that performing heart surgery and crafting a successful 25-round draft are similar occupations, requiring the same skill set.

However, if given the task of explaining "rudimentary heart surgery" or the "art of fantasy drafting" to my 90-something grandma (or 30-something wife), they'd probably have a better grasp of clearing blocked arteries than why Jose Bautista has 3B/OF eligibility—even though he only plays right field for the Blue Jays.

12 Simple Draft Rules to Live by

1. Select at least one corner infielder in the first three picks.

2. Avoid being at the tail end of a same-position draft run—after Round 2.

3. Avoid taking more than three starting pitchers in the first eight rounds of 12-team drafts.

4. Give major consideration to an outfielder every three picks.

5. When in doubt with starting pitchers, target strikeouts and WHIP.

6. When in doubt with closers, target saves and ERA.

7. If at all possible, avoid drafting catchers before Round 4 (especially in leagues with only one required spot). If it helps, the current average-draft-position values for the top six are: Carlos Santana (35th overall), Mike Napoli (48th overall), Brian McCann (51st overall), Buster Posey (59th overall--don't be scared off by his ankle rehab), Joe Mauer (79th overall) and Matt Wieters (97th overall).

8. Avoid closers in the first six rounds.

9. Do not become obsessed with other owners' rosters during a draft.

10. It's OK to reach for your favorite prospective star—after Round 16.

11. Don't be afraid to handcuff a closer with his No. 1 setup man.

12. If you wait for speed at the end of the draft, it may come with a good-to-very good batting average. On the flip side, if you wait for power at the end of the draft, it'll most likely come with a low batting average.

Semi-Obvious Tip of the Day

When live-drafting on the Web, it's comforting to know the mainstream sites have already done the legwork, in terms of aligning each talent with their prospective draft slot or value.

So when you're on the clock with seconds to spare, it's important to realize that Matthew Berry, Eric Karabell, Scott White or Jeff Erickson did not conceive their preseason rankings as some kind of Jedi mind trick.

If Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has a No. 16 pre-draft ranking, he's a comfortable lock for Round 2. If Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton has a No. 25 value, he'll be one of the first to disappear from Round 3.

The same thinking applies to subsequent rounds—just be leery of injured players who haven't been downgraded on the mainstream sites. This is the reason why no one should ever use "autopick" for a non-absentee draft.

For Those Who Require Stealth Production After the 180th Pick

Steals

• Coco Crisp, Athletics
• Ben Revere, Twins
• Zack Cozart, Reds
• Alcides Escobar, Royals
• Eduardo Nunez, Yankees
• Lorenzo Cain, Royals
• Angel Pagan, Giants
• Cliff Pennington, Athletics
• Tyler Pastornicky, Braves
• Jose Tabata, Pirates
• Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
• Juan Pierre, Phillies
• Will Venable, Padres
• Nyjer Morgan, Brewers
• Mike Trout, Angels (my No. 3 "sleeper" in all of baseball)

Home Runs

• Brandon Belt, Giants
• Ike Davis, Mets
• Justin Morneau, Twins
• Chris Davis, Orioles
• Kendrys Morales, Angels
• Justin Smoak, Mariners
• Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays
• Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
• Matt Joyce, Rays
• Vernon Wells, Angels
• Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics
• Kyle Blanks, Padres
• Matt LaPorta, Indians
• Chris Carter, Athletics
• Lucas Duda, Mets
• John Mayberry Jr., Phillies
• Garrett Jones, Pirates
• Brandon Allen, Athletics
• Adam Dunn, White Sox (there'll be no repeat of last year's debacle)

Runs

• Lorenzo Cain, Royals
• Jose Tabata, Pirates
• Eric Thames, Blue Jays
• Andres Torres, Giants
• J.D. Martinez, Astros
• Michael Brantley, Indians
• Denard Span, Twins
• Bobby Abreu, Angels
• Josh Reddick, Athletics
• Mitch Moreland, Rangers
• Ben Revere, Twins
• Mike Trout, Angels
• Brandon Belt, Giants

Minimum Expectations for Starting-Pitching Prospects

Mixed Leagues

WHIP: 1.27 (the 1.40-plus guys will absolutely kill you)
Strikeouts: 160
Ratios: K/BB (2.5-to-1), K/9 (8.7)
ERA: 4.03 (don't let 4.10-plus pitchers off the hook)
Wins: 13 (I'm the least militant about this one—pitchers have little control over wins)

AL or NL-Only Leagues

WHIP: 1.31
Strikeouts: 155
Ratios: K/BB (2.25-to-1), K/9 (8.4)
ERA: 4.12
Wins: 12

Choose Your Own Draft Adventure: Starting Pitchers

The golden rule: I don't care how you prioritize the values of starting pitching on draft day. Just make sure to grab at least four (preferably five) of these assets before the dust settles.

It bears repeating: You can't necessarily win a fantasy pennant on good-to-great pitching alone. However, you'll never win a championship with No. 4 and No. 5 starters masked as front-liners in the fantasy rotation.

• Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
• Justin Verlander, Tigers
• Roy Halladay, Phillies
• Cliff Lee, Phillies
• Jered Weaver, Angels
• Felix Hernandez, Mariners
• Tim Lincecum, Giants
• CC Sabathia, Yankees
• Cole Hamels, Phillies
• Zack Greinke, Brewers
• Dan Haren, Angels
• Matt Cain, Giants
• Jon Lester, Red Sox
• Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
• Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
• James Shields, Rays
• Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks
• Josh Johnson, Marlins
• Michael Pineda, Yankees
• Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
• Mat Latos, Reds
• Madison Bumgarner, Giants
• C.J. Wilson, Angels
• Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks
• Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
• Josh Beckett, Red Sox
• Matt Garza, Cubs
• Jeremy Hellickson, Rays
• Ricky Romero, Blue Jays
• Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
• Brandon Beachy, Braves
• Max Scherzer, Tigers
• Matt Moore, Rays
• Yu Darvish, Rangers
• Cory Luebke, Padres
• Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
• Tommy Hanson, Braves
• Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees
• Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays
• Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
• Ervin Santana, Angels

Choose Your Own Draft Adventure: Outfielders

The golden rule: In leagues that require five starting outfielders, it's imperative to have at least two (or preferably three) of these assets.

After that, owners can focus on getting value at every turn, while also targeting isolated categories of potential excellence.

• Matt Kemp, Dodgers
• Ryan Braun, Brewers
• Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
• Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
• Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
• Curtis Granderson, Yankees
• Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
• Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
• Josh Hamilton, Rangers
• Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
• Matt Holliday, Cardinals
• Nelson Cruz, Rangers
• Hunter Pence, Phillies
• Alex Gordon, Royals
• Michael Bourn, Braves
• Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
• Jay Bruce, Reds
• B.J. Upton, Rays
• Shane Victorino, Phillies
• Desmond Jennings, Rays
• Drew Stubbs, Reds
• Ben Zobrist, Rays
• Lance Berkman, Cardinals
• Carl Crawford, Red Sox
• Jason Heyward, Braves
• Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
• Brett Gardner, Yankees

Choose Your Own Draft Adventure: Third Basemen

The golden rule: Given the relative scarcity of dynamic third basemen, it's imperative to land at least one of the top-10 guys, setting up the luxury-item pick of Mike Moustakas sometime between Rounds 16-18.

• Jose Bautista, Blue Jays (one more year of 3B eligibility; a top-five overall pick)
• Evan Longoria, Rays
• Adrian Beltre, Rangers
• David Wright, Mets
• Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
• Michael Young, Rangers (he'll probably notch 200 hits again)
• Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays
• Pablo Sandoval, Giants
• Aramis Ramirez, Brewers
• Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
• Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks (speed-power option has 2B/3B eligibility)
• Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
• Mark Reynolds, Orioles (a safe bet for 34 HR, 85 RBI and 83 runs)
• Mike Moustakas, Royals (my No. 1 sleeper in baseball)

Choose Your Own Draft Adventure: First Basemen

The golden rule: In a perfect world, fantasy owners will finagle a way to draft three studs from this list.

From Miguel Cabrera to Paul Goldschmidt, that may require a commitment from Rounds 1-13. But that's OK. All fantasy owners need enduring corner-infield power to bring home a title.

• Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
• Albert Pujols, Angels
• Joey Votto, Reds (No. 1 option in NL-only leagues)
• Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox
• Prince Fielder, Tigers
• Mark Teixeira, Yankees
• Eric Hosmer, Royals
• Paul Konerko, White Sox
• Lance Berkman, Cardinals (has dual-eligibility this season)
• Carlos Santana, Indians (ditto for this C/1B marvel)
• Freddie Freeman, Braves
• Mike Napoli, Rangers
• Mark Trumbo, Angels
• Mike Morse, Nationals
• Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
• Ike Davis, Mets
• Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
• Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
• Carlos Lee, Astros
• Brandon Belt, Giants (a world of four-category hitting potential)

Strategy Session: Middle Infielders

Let's pretend your 12-team league has three spots for middle infielders (2B/SS/2B-SS). It's crucial to select at least one stud second baseman or shortstop in the first four picks.

In fact, I prefer to have the 2B and SS slots sewn up before Round 9, allowing flexibility to address the final slot whenever necessary.

There's really no excuse for letting Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes slide too far. And when targeting second basemen, shoot for Rickie Weeks in Round 7.

Baseline Projections For Middle Infielders

Second Base

• Robinson Cano: You can expect...104 runs, .302 BA and 28 homers
• Dan Uggla: You can expect...82 RBI
• Jemile Weeks: You can expect...22 steals
• Jason Kipnis: You can expect...above .507 slugging
• Rickie Weeks: You can expect...20 homers
• Ian Kinsler: You can expect...77 RBI and 30 steals
• Dustin Pedroia: You can expect...26 steals and a .307 average
• Brandon Phillips: You can expect...18 HR and 82 RBI
• Dustin Ackley: You can expect...marks of a .348 OBP and a .766 OPS
• Howard Kendrick: You can expect...14 steals
• Gordon Beckham: You can expect...five steals and 44 RBI
• Aaron Hill: You can expect...61 RBI

Shortstop

• Hanley Ramirez: You can expect...marks above .243 BA, .333 OBP and .712 OPS
• Alexei Ramirez: You can expect...15 homers and seven steals
• Troy Tulowitzki: You can expect...81 runs and a .302 batting average
• Asdrubal Cabrera: You can expect...87 runs
• Jose Reyes: You can expect...39 steals
• Dee Gordon: You can expect...24 steals and a .325 OBP
• Alcides Escobar: You can expect...26 steals
• Erick Aybar: You can expect...71 runs

Sleeper Cells

For those with computer or iPhone access, click on the Top 40 Sleepers in Fantasy. It should be the final piece of the puzzle in your quest to ace a 25-round draft without really preparing past Round 15.

In other words—congratulations on running a 26.2-mile marathon, even though you never jogged more than 13 miles before the big day.

One Last Piece of Advice

If you happen to get crushed on draft day by a phalanx of prepared owners, fear not—for you'll have the entire season to trade your way out of any March  debacles.

Just stick to the rules above, and you'll be fine.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.