Fantasy Baseball 2012: 5-Minute Guide for Faking Your Way Through a Draft

Jay ClemonsJun 7, 2018

I'd like to present the "Five-Minute Guide to Faking Your Way Through a Fantasy Baseball Draft," a piece that was largely inspired by the fake book, Performing Heart Surgery For Dummies.

Now, I'm not saying that performing heart surgery and crafting a successful 25-round draft are similar occupations, requiring the same skill set.

However, if given the task of explaining "rudimentary heart surgery" or the "art of fantasy drafting" to my 90-something grandma (or 30-something wife), they'd probably have a better grasp of clearing blocked arteries than why Jose Bautista has 3B/OF eligibility—even though he only plays right field for the Blue Jays.

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12 Simple Draft Rules to Live by

1. Select at least one corner infielder in the first three picks.

2. Avoid being at the tail end of a same-position draft run—after Round 2.

3. Avoid taking more than three starting pitchers in the first eight rounds of 12-team drafts.

4. Give major consideration to an outfielder every three picks.

5. When in doubt with starting pitchers, target strikeouts and WHIP.

6. When in doubt with closers, target saves and ERA.

7. If at all possible, avoid drafting catchers before Round 4 (especially in leagues with only one required spot). If it helps, the current average-draft-position values for the top six are: Carlos Santana (35th overall), Mike Napoli (48th overall), Brian McCann (51st overall), Buster Posey (59th overall--don't be scared off by his ankle rehab), Joe Mauer (79th overall) and Matt Wieters (97th overall).

8. Avoid closers in the first six rounds.

9. Do not become obsessed with other owners' rosters during a draft.

10. It's OK to reach for your favorite prospective star—after Round 16.

11. Don't be afraid to handcuff a closer with his No. 1 setup man.

12. If you wait for speed at the end of the draft, it may come with a good-to-very good batting average. On the flip side, if you wait for power at the end of the draft, it'll most likely come with a low batting average.

Semi-Obvious Tip of the Day

When live-drafting on the Web, it's comforting to know the mainstream sites have already done the legwork, in terms of aligning each talent with their prospective draft slot or value.

So when you're on the clock with seconds to spare, it's important to realize that Matthew Berry, Eric Karabell, Scott White or Jeff Erickson did not conceive their preseason rankings as some kind of Jedi mind trick.

If Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has a No. 16 pre-draft ranking, he's a comfortable lock for Round 2. If Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton has a No. 25 value, he'll be one of the first to disappear from Round 3.

The same thinking applies to subsequent rounds—just be leery of injured players who haven't been downgraded on the mainstream sites. This is the reason why no one should ever use "autopick" for a non-absentee draft.

For Those Who Require Stealth Production After the 180th Pick

Steals

Coco Crisp, Athletics
Ben Revere, Twins
Zack Cozart, Reds
Alcides Escobar, Royals
Eduardo Nunez, Yankees
Lorenzo Cain, Royals
Angel Pagan, Giants
Cliff Pennington, Athletics
Tyler Pastornicky, Braves
Jose Tabata, Pirates
Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
Juan Pierre, Phillies
Will Venable, Padres
Nyjer Morgan, Brewers
Mike Trout, Angels (my No. 3 "sleeper" in all of baseball)

Home Runs

Brandon Belt, Giants
Ike Davis, Mets
Justin Morneau, Twins
Chris Davis, Orioles
Kendrys Morales, Angels
Justin Smoak, Mariners
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays
Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
Matt Joyce, Rays
Vernon Wells, Angels
Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics
Kyle Blanks, Padres
Matt LaPorta, Indians
Chris Carter, Athletics
Lucas Duda, Mets
John Mayberry Jr., Phillies
Garrett Jones, Pirates
Brandon Allen, Athletics
Adam Dunn, White Sox (there'll be no repeat of last year's debacle)

Runs

Lorenzo Cain, Royals
Jose Tabata, Pirates
Eric Thames, Blue Jays
Andres Torres, Giants
J.D. Martinez, Astros
Michael Brantley, Indians
Denard Span, Twins
Bobby Abreu, Angels
Josh Reddick, Athletics
Mitch Moreland, Rangers
Ben Revere, Twins
Mike Trout, Angels
Brandon Belt, Giants

Minimum Expectations for Starting-Pitching Prospects

Mixed Leagues

WHIP: 1.27 (the 1.40-plus guys will absolutely kill you)
Strikeouts: 160
Ratios: K/BB (2.5-to-1), K/9 (8.7)
ERA: 4.03 (don't let 4.10-plus pitchers off the hook)
Wins: 13 (I'm the least militant about this one—pitchers have little control over wins)

AL or NL-Only Leagues

WHIP: 1.31
Strikeouts: 155
Ratios: K/BB (2.25-to-1), K/9 (8.4)
ERA: 4.12
Wins: 12

Choose Your Own Draft Adventure: Starting Pitchers

The golden rule: I don't care how you prioritize the values of starting pitching on draft day. Just make sure to grab at least four (preferably five) of these assets before the dust settles.

It bears repeating: You can't necessarily win a fantasy pennant on good-to-great pitching alone. However, you'll never win a championship with No. 4 and No. 5 starters masked as front-liners in the fantasy rotation.

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Justin Verlander, Tigers
Roy Halladay, Phillies
Cliff Lee, Phillies
Jered Weaver, Angels
Felix Hernandez, Mariners
Tim Lincecum, Giants
CC Sabathia, Yankees
Cole Hamels, Phillies
Zack Greinke, Brewers
Dan Haren, Angels
Matt Cain, Giants
Jon Lester, Red Sox
Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
James Shields, Rays
Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks
Josh Johnson, Marlins
Michael Pineda, Yankees
Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
Mat Latos, Reds
Madison Bumgarner, Giants
C.J. Wilson, Angels
Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
Josh Beckett, Red Sox
Matt Garza, Cubs
Jeremy Hellickson, Rays
Ricky Romero, Blue Jays
Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
Brandon Beachy, Braves
Max Scherzer, Tigers
Matt Moore, Rays
Yu Darvish, Rangers
Cory Luebke, Padres
Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
Tommy Hanson, Braves
Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees
Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays
Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
Ervin Santana, Angels

Choose Your Own Draft Adventure: Outfielders

The golden rule: In leagues that require five starting outfielders, it's imperative to have at least two (or preferably three) of these assets.

After that, owners can focus on getting value at every turn, while also targeting isolated categories of potential excellence.

Matt Kemp, Dodgers
Ryan Braun, Brewers
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
Curtis Granderson, Yankees
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
Josh Hamilton, Rangers
Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
Matt Holliday, Cardinals
Nelson Cruz, Rangers
Hunter Pence, Phillies
Alex Gordon, Royals
Michael Bourn, Braves
Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
Jay Bruce, Reds
B.J. Upton, Rays
Shane Victorino, Phillies
Desmond Jennings, Rays
Drew Stubbs, Reds
Ben Zobrist, Rays
Lance Berkman, Cardinals
Carl Crawford, Red Sox
Jason Heyward, Braves
Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
Brett Gardner, Yankees

Choose Your Own Draft Adventure: Third Basemen

The golden rule: Given the relative scarcity of dynamic third basemen, it's imperative to land at least one of the top-10 guys, setting up the luxury-item pick of Mike Moustakas sometime between Rounds 16-18.

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays (one more year of 3B eligibility; a top-five overall pick)
Evan Longoria, Rays
Adrian Beltre, Rangers
David Wright, Mets
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
Michael Young, Rangers (he'll probably notch 200 hits again)
Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays
Pablo Sandoval, Giants
Aramis Ramirez, Brewers
Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks (speed-power option has 2B/3B eligibility)
Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
Mark Reynolds, Orioles (a safe bet for 34 HR, 85 RBI and 83 runs)
Mike Moustakas, Royals (my No. 1 sleeper in baseball)

Choose Your Own Draft Adventure: First Basemen

The golden rule: In a perfect world, fantasy owners will finagle a way to draft three studs from this list.

From Miguel Cabrera to Paul Goldschmidt, that may require a commitment from Rounds 1-13. But that's OK. All fantasy owners need enduring corner-infield power to bring home a title.

Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
Albert Pujols, Angels
Joey Votto, Reds (No. 1 option in NL-only leagues)
Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox
Prince Fielder, Tigers
Mark Teixeira, Yankees
Eric Hosmer, Royals
Paul Konerko, White Sox
Lance Berkman, Cardinals (has dual-eligibility this season)
Carlos Santana, Indians (ditto for this C/1B marvel)
Freddie Freeman, Braves
Mike Napoli, Rangers
Mark Trumbo, Angels
Mike Morse, Nationals
Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
Ike Davis, Mets
Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
Carlos Lee, Astros
Brandon Belt, Giants (a world of four-category hitting potential)

Strategy Session: Middle Infielders

Let's pretend your 12-team league has three spots for middle infielders (2B/SS/2B-SS). It's crucial to select at least one stud second baseman or shortstop in the first four picks.

In fact, I prefer to have the 2B and SS slots sewn up before Round 9, allowing flexibility to address the final slot whenever necessary.

There's really no excuse for letting Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes slide too far. And when targeting second basemen, shoot for Rickie Weeks in Round 7.

Baseline Projections For Middle Infielders

Second Base

Robinson Cano: You can expect...104 runs, .302 BA and 28 homers
Dan Uggla: You can expect...82 RBI
Jemile Weeks: You can expect...22 steals
Jason Kipnis: You can expect...above .507 slugging
Rickie Weeks: You can expect...20 homers
Ian Kinsler: You can expect...77 RBI and 30 steals
Dustin Pedroia: You can expect...26 steals and a .307 average
Brandon Phillips: You can expect...18 HR and 82 RBI
Dustin Ackley: You can expect...marks of a .348 OBP and a .766 OPS
Howard Kendrick: You can expect...14 steals
Gordon Beckham: You can expect...five steals and 44 RBI
Aaron Hill: You can expect...61 RBI

Shortstop

Hanley Ramirez: You can expect...marks above .243 BA, .333 OBP and .712 OPS
Alexei Ramirez: You can expect...15 homers and seven steals
Troy Tulowitzki: You can expect...81 runs and a .302 batting average
Asdrubal Cabrera: You can expect...87 runs
Jose Reyes: You can expect...39 steals
Dee Gordon: You can expect...24 steals and a .325 OBP
Alcides Escobar: You can expect...26 steals
Erick Aybar: You can expect...71 runs

Sleeper Cells

For those with computer or iPhone access, click on the Top 40 Sleepers in Fantasy. It should be the final piece of the puzzle in your quest to ace a 25-round draft without really preparing past Round 15.

In other words—congratulations on running a 26.2-mile marathon, even though you never jogged more than 13 miles before the big day.

One Last Piece of Advice

If you happen to get crushed on draft day by a phalanx of prepared owners, fear not—for you'll have the entire season to trade your way out of any March debacles.

Just stick to the rules above, and you'll be fine.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.