Fantasy Football: How the Top 8 Free Agents Will Perform on Their New Teams

A flurry of activity in the free-agent market was a major factor in making this offseason one of the most exciting in recent memory.

Big names like Peyton Manning and Vincent Jackson have found new homes and will enter new markets with heavy expectations.

Surprise moves also dominated free agency, with Michael Bush joining the Chicago Bears and Peyton Hillis joining the Kansas City Chiefs.

Focusing only on players who changed teams this offseason, here’s a look at how Manning, Jackson and the rest of the top free agents will perform in 2012.

Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay

Jackson is the big-play receiver that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were in dire need of and should be a major factor in turning around a team that finished 21st in total offense.

As Jackson owns a career average of 17.5 yards per catch, he brings a new element to the Bucs’ attack.

Last year’s No. 1 target for the Bucs, Mike Williams, has a 13.3 YPC average in two seasons. Williams will now line up across the field from Jackson.

Jackson had at least 1,000 yards and seven TDs in three of the last four seasons (a 2010 injury shortened his season to five games).

He was the No. 9 scoring fantasy receiver in 2011.

Jackson should remain a top 10 receiver in 2012, and he may help rejuvenate the career of QB Josh Freeman in the process.

Michael Bush, Chicago Bears

Bush was one of the top handcuff backs over the past few years with Oakland, filling in for the oft-injured Darren McFadden.

He ran for 977 yards with seven TDs for Oakland in 2011.

He also had 655 yards and eight TDs in 2010.

However, Bush’s value in Oakland over the past two years was high because of lingering injuries to McFadden.

Chicago’s incumbent (and disgruntled) starter Matt Forte did sit out the last four games of 2011, but he is less of an injury risk than McFadden. For that reason, unless Forte holds out, Bush’s statistical performance will fall off a bit.

He will, however, be relevant in fantasy if he takes over goal-line duties for the Bears. Marion Barber (now retired) was that guy for the Bears last season and he had six rushing TDs to Forte’s three.

Brandon Lloyd, New England Patriots

Lloyd will be joining the Patriots passing offense that was ranked second in 2011.

It’s an interesting situation for Lloyd, who will not be the team’s go-to receiver and may not even be the second option. Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski filled those spots last year and will likely do the same in 2012.

However, Lloyd does provide a new element to the Pats' offense as a deep threat on the outside.

Lloyd played four games with the Broncos in 2011 before being traded to the Rams. He ended the season with a total of 70 receptions for 966 yards and five TDs.

He had a huge season in 2010 with the Broncos as he caught 11 TDs and gained 1,448 receiving yards (which led all WRs).

No doubt, Lloyd will be a big asset to the Pats, but his fantasy stock will drop as there are just too many other weapons for Lloyd to get consistent production in fantasy. I’d pencil him in for 800 yards and six TDs.

Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins

Pierre Garcon joins a Redskins team that will have a completely different offensive outlook in 2012.

The ‘Skins have started a total revamp of their skill positions on offense that will likely end with the drafting of former Baylor QB Robert Griffin III with the second pick in the 2012 draft. The Redskins have also added free agent WR Josh Morgan from the 49ers.

It was Garcon, however, that was paid No. 1 WR money (five years, $42.5 million), and he will be expected to produce No. 1 WR numbers.

Garcon had his best year yet in 2011 despite the Colts' 2-14 record and lack of a consistent passing offense (ranked 27th in the league). The 25-year-old caught 70 balls for 947 yards and six TDs.

With Garcon coming in as the team’s No. 1 receiver, he should continue his statistical ascent, leading to his first 1,000-yard season.

Matt Flynn, Seattle Seahawks

Flynn parlayed two successful fill-in starts for Aaron Rodgers into a a three-year deal with the Seahawks worth $26.5 million.

In Week 17 against the Lions, Flynn threw for 480 yards and six TDs, both franchise records for the Packers. He also fumbled and threw a pick.

In 2010, Matt Flynn had a start against New England and went for 251 yards with three TDs in a loss. Flynn also threw a pick-six in the game and lost a fumble.

Despite the big deal and impressive (yet limited) early successes, Flynn does not go into Seattle as the unquestioned starter; he’ll have to beat out the incumbent Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson had a ho-hum season with 3,091 yards, 14 TDs, 13 INTs and a 79.2 rating.

If Flynn can show that his early success is sustainable, he should win the job easily and has potential to put up top-15 QB numbers.

Martellus Bennett, New York Giants

Maybe a change of scenery and his best shot yet as a No. 1 TE will be the motivation that the 25-year-old Bennett needs.

At least, that’s what the New York Giants are hoping.

Bennett signed just a one-year deal, so he’ll have to prove he’s a quality starting TE right out of the gate.

Bennett does not have an impressive statistical history. In fact, his four career touchdown catches came in his rookie year, 2008. But he's still young enough (25) to turn his potential into production.

If Bennett puts in the effort with New York and Eli Manning, he could be a stud fantasy TE. He has great size (6’6”, 270 lbs) and is a matchup problem for any defense.

Defenses will also be focused on outside threats Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, which should help open up the middle for Bennett.

Sixty catches and six TDs doesn’t seem out of the question.

Peyton Hillis, Kansas City Chiefs

Hillis enters a great situation in Kansas City, at least for the Chiefs.

The Chiefs will now have the luxury of both Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis in their backfield, each of them is looking to rebound after missing time in 2011.

However, it is not a great situation for Hillis' fantasy production.

In a situation that could mirror Carolina’s in 2011, the Chiefs could very well have production split between their two main backs. Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams were the No. 25 and No. 26 scoring RBs in 2011.

A similar situation could happen in Kansas City this year, with Hillis not being able to return to the type of production he had with the Browns in 2010. He gained 1,654 total yards and 13 total TDs in that season.

Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Manning enters a pressure-filled situation in Denver. He replaces (arguably) the most popular public figure in Denver since John Elway and is expected to lead the Broncos to a Super Bowl. Current odds have the Broncos at 12:1 to win the Super Bowl, behind only Green Bay (13:2) and New England (15:2).

If Denver’s defense plays like it did last year and Manning’s body holds up, a Super Bowl is definitely a possibility.

However, there’s no doubting that Manning is in the twilight of his career. Even before his latest surgery, his numbers were trending down.

In 2010, Manning had his lowest QB rating (91.9) since 2002. He also had his lowest yards-per-completion (6.92) since his rookie season in 1998.

Those are still great numbers, but Manning’s best statistical seasons are behind him. But less will be asked of Manning, as this could be the best defense he’s ever played with.

By no means will Manning be a game manager, but Denver will continue to establish the run and control the clock. Manning will be a top 10 (but not top 5) fantasy QB if the neck injury is not a major issue and he plays 14-16 games.

I would expect about 3,800 yards, 28 TDs and 14 INTs.