2012 NFL Mock Draft: Greg Cosell Adds Fuel to RG3 vs. Luck Debate

Just one day ago I wrote an article detailing the fact that some experts are beginning to question whether Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck should absolutely be the first pick in the 2012 NFL draft, and on Friday yet another pundit threw their hat in the ring, claiming among other things that Baylor signal-caller and Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin possesses "superior arm talent."

Greg Cosell of NFL Films penned an extensive piece on both quarterbacks after reviewing video of five of each player's games from the 2011 season, the type of film study that led ESPN's Merril Hoge to say that he would draft Griffin over Luck in "half a heartbeat."

Cosell doesn't go nearly that far, but the NFL Films guru's assessment of the two quarterbacks at the very least adds fuel to the growing clamor that the Indianapolis Colts should at least consider Griffin over Luck. The increasing number of arguments being made to that effect are beginning to cast some doubts over the one pick in this year's draft that just about everyone believed was a foregone conclusion.

It's not as if Cosell slams Luck, and as would be expected given Luck's extensive experience in a pro-style offense while at Stanford, Cosell gave Luck very high marks when it comes to reading opposing defenses and making quick decisions with the football.

"

He had a lot of freedom at the line of scrimmage to call plays and make adjustments based on defensive fronts and coverages. That’s an essential attribute as he transitions to the NFL, one that has dramatically increased in importance in the last number of years with the complexity and sophistication of defenses. There’s no question Luck is well ahead of the learning curve in that area.

"

However, Cosell was not nearly as glowing in his assessment of what he saw when Luck actually threw the football, especially on intermediate or deep routes.

"

Luck had a tendency to lift his back foot off the ground before releasing the ball. That prevented him from driving through his throws and at times negatively impacted his velocity and accuracy. He would lean over his front foot and push the ball. That can be corrected with coaching and repetition, but it’s a concern that must be addressed. Luck was not a special passer based on film study. He is not the same kind of arm talent as Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton.

"

Cosell then turned his attention to Griffin. Even though Cosell conceded that the shotgun spread offense ran by Griffin at Baylor doesn't exactly translate well to the NFL, Cosell's praise of the 6'2" Baylor standout was effusive from the start.

"

What immediately jumped out was arm strength. He had a very compact and easy delivery with natural velocity. There was a snap to his throws. Many disagree, but in more than 20 years of watching NFL game film, I am a firm believer that arm strength, or put another way, the ability to make tight throws into small windows down the field, is critical. Can you be a top level quarterback without it? Yes, but then you must be special in other areas.

"

At that point Cosell, who has worked for NFL Films since 1979 and is a very highly regarded analyst in football circles who helped create the iconic NFL Matchup television program, goes on to elaborate on two facets of Griffin's game that he found especially interesting. That included at least one area in which he feels Griffin's skills are superior to Andrew Luck's.

"

The first was his patience and composure in the pocket. He did not move when the bodies started closing it down. He threw effectively out of what we call a “muddied pocket”. He did not need much functional space to deliver the ball with velocity and distance.

Surprisingly, in my 5 game breakdown of Luck, he exhibited a tendency to move too quickly, to leave the pocket too early. The result was often a positive because of his athleticism and ability to throw on the run, but I am very anxious to chart this element of his game in the NFL.

The second characteristic of Griffin’s play that stood out, and projects very well to the NFL, was his ability to throw from different platforms, or more descriptively, arm angles, and remain accurate. It’s especially important given his 6’3” height, an inch or two shorter than would be considered ideal for an NFL quarterback.

I’m certainly not suggesting Griffin is the equal of Aaron Rodgers at this point, but that attribute has helped elevate Rodgers to elite status.

"

It's important to note that at no point does Cosell advocate the Colts selecting one player over the other, and even he admits that his conclusions are based solely on film study. However, Cosell's reputation is such that his opinions carry some weight even among NFL front offices.

His closing statement may be the heaviest of his entire, extremely well-written article: "The bottom line in my 5 game film evaluation: Griffin is a superior arm talent and natural passer than Luck. Will he be a better NFL quarterback? We’ll find out soon enough."

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Luck will almost certainly be the first overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft, and he would be a fine choice by the Indianapolis Colts, who would be getting one of the most cerebral and pro-ready quarterbacks to come down the line since quite possibly, well, the Colts' last quarterback.

However, the seemingly growing momentum of the "Griffin First" movement at the very least brings up an interesting question.

Is it possible that while Luck is exactly what we thought he was that Griffin could be even better than we think he is?

If so, then the Indianapolis Colts, a team that has spent much of the last month effectively blowing up their roster, may have one lulu of a question of their own to answer as they begin the rebuilding process.

Do you go with the sure(r) bet, or take the risk that Griffin's potential is as considerable as many seem to now believe?

Follow @IDPManor