2012 NFL Mock Draft: Practicing What I Preach About Rules for Accuracy
I try not to hold myself to the standard that I hold others to, so after getting on the soapbox about rules for creating a realistic first round, I'll craft a set of 32 picks that adhere to my rules:
1. Indianapolis - Stanford QB Andrew Luck - Projecting him at No. 2 would count as a slider, but he fits what the Colts have come to expect from a QB too well to be passed over for Robert Griffin III.
2. Washington (from St. Louis) - Baylor QB Robert Griffin III - We'll count this as one of our trades. After being around RG3 and watching him at his pro day yesterday, I'm that much more convinced that the Redskins faithful will be happy with this pick/move in the long run.
3. Minnesota - USC OT Matt Kalil - It is important to point out GM Rick Spielman has control in the war room for the first time, so we'll learn a lot about his philosophy through the draft. Left tackles are too hard to find to pass on Kalil, but Spielman should be open to a deal if a team will pay dearly for the pick.
4. Cleveland - LSU CB Morris Claiborne - Claiborne has the most positional value of the second tier of elite prospects, and Heckert/Holmgren hit on a corner in the top-10 two years ago with Joe Haden.
5. Tampa Bay - Alabama RB Trent Richardson - LeGarrette Blount's 2011 campaign didn't instill a lot of confidence in the Bucs organization and new head coach Greg Schiano wants a "back to basics" approach on offense. It doesn't get much more basic than a workhorse running back.
6. St. Louis - Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon - The Rams may field offers from a club looking to jump ahead of the Dolphins to get QB Ryan Tannehill, but the giant hole at wide receiver and Blackmon's ability to be go-to guy in key situations for Sam Bradford will be a fine use of the pick.
7. Jacksonville - South Carolina DE/OLB Melvin Ingram - Quinton Coples could be a consideration, but GM Gene Smith has shown an inclination to avoid players with effort questions. I'm appealing to obvious need here, as the defense seems set except for the defensive end position opposite Jeremy Mincey.
8. Miami - Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill - Owner Stephen Ross will feel the need to do something splashy at quarterback and Tannehill's connection to offensive coordinator Mike Sherman from their years together at College Station is too strong to ignore. Even if the Dolphins covet Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden, the Browns will get two shots at him before they choose again.
9. Carolina - Baylor WR Kendall Wright - A mild shocker and fast riser after his pro day, Wright told us he has already visited Carolina, and he can give the offense another vertical dimension for Cam Newton, not to mention a receiver who is used to playing with a QB who will extend plays and uncork a deep ball from any platform and on the move.
10. Buffalo - Stanford OT Jonathan Martin - This pick looks more and more like offensive tackle every day. The Bills signed another pass rusher yesterday, Mark Anderson, and they continue to let 2011 starting left tackle Demetrius Bell sit on the open market. Although Martin has been a standard pick in my recent mocks, it breaks a little from convention, as most have Iowa's Riley Reiff as the second OT off the board. I see Martin as a more ideal left tackle than Reiff, hence the mild surprise.
11. New York Jets (from Kansas City) - Iowa OT Riley Reiff - Mike Tannenbaum has traded up in the first round twice in the last five years, and the whole organization should have a sense of urgency about this season. Scott Pioli traded down in the first last year and probably won't have a clear top player on his board at this slot. The Jets are short-handed because just they gave up a fourth round pick for Tim Tebow, but no need is greater than right tackle, and Reiff would be an instant starter here. Arizona looms large at No. 13 as a team that would greatly need a right tackle.
12. Seattle - Stanford OL David DeCastro - The Seahawks have had such success with Stanford players (WR Doug Baldwin and CB Richard Sherman) that I have to think that will draw them to DeCastro. A pass rusher or Luke Kuechly makes sense here too, but DeCastro is one of the surest things in the draft and he'll help the team get even more out of Marshawn Lynch's big contract.
13. Arizona - Alabama DE/LB Courtney Upshaw - Upshaw was this high on a lot of boards, but has been falling of late, so this almost represents a rise. He could be a perfect bookend with Sam Acho or even play inside with Daryl Washington.
14. Dallas - LSU DT Michael Brockers - The Cowboys generally look to big programs early in the draft and they love athletic man-mountain types on defensive line like Brockers.
15. Philadelphia - Mississippi State DT Fletcher Cox - With middle linebacker taken care of via the DeMeco Ryans trade, the Eagles can get another strong player for their defensive line rotation.
16. Kansas City (from New York Jets) - Memphis DT Dontari Poe - Just like last year, Pioli correctly gauges that his first-round target will fall enough to make a small move down in the round and add some draft capital.
17. Cincinnati (from Oakland) - Boston College LB Luke Kuechly - Not an obvious fit, but Rey Maualuga can play the strong side just fine and Kuechly is a clear best player available here. Guard and corner are deep enough that the Bengals can ignore them for Kuechly and count on later picks to address the positions.
18. San Diego - Alabama CB Dre Kirkpatrick - Quentin Jammer will be 33 when the season opens, it's time to look for a physical replacement.
19. Chicago - Ohio State OT Mike Adams - I have a mental block about the Bears using this pick to do anything except more effectively protect Jay Cutler.
20. Tennessee - Wisconsin C Peter Konz - The Titans interior offensive line is in poor shape and the recent addition of Kamerion Wimbley slightly tilts the scales towards Konz over Illinois DE Whitney Mercilus.
21. Cincinnati - North Carolina DE Quinton Coples - Coples takes a tumble because of perceived effort issus, but the Bengals can't pass on the potential to dominate on passing downs that he would give their defensive line.
22. Cleveland (from Atlanta) - Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden - This pick would be a small surprise, but the Browns were out in full force at Oklahoma State's pro day and without Matt Flynn or Robert Griffin III in tow, they'll narrow their focus to Weeden to be the future hope at QB. They could wait until their second-round pick at No. 37 or hope to trade up/down into the late first for Weeden, but if they're sold on him, they can't afford to miss him.
23. Detroit - South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore - The Lions let the draft come to them and get an instant, talented starter at corner who fits their aggressive scheme.
24. Pittsburgh - Georgia OG/OT Cordy Glenn - The Steelers get a break when the Bengals don't use either of their first-round picks to take Glenn. His versatility and athleticism combined with enormous natural size will be welcomed by Pittsburgh faithful.
25. Denver - Michigan State DT Jerel Worthy - The smart move here is to maximize the value of edge rushers Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller by giving the offensive line a pass rusher to account for in the middle of the line.
26. Baltimore (from Houston) - Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd - Ozzie Newsome can't wait any longer and gives up a pick to Houston to snag the big and fast, but previously troubled receiver who may be falling after Kendall Wright's impressive pro day made the case for him to be the second receiver drafted.
27. New England (from New Orleans) - Penn State DT Devon Still - This pairing keeps coming up on my board as the Patriots could use some upside to go with the grinders they have next to Vince Wilfork on the defensive line.
28. Green Bay - USC DE/OLB Nick Perry - It just doesn't seem there's going to be any way to stop the Packers from getting a very good 3-4 OLB prospect at No. 28. The Packers take Perry over Whitney Mercilus, who surprisingly falls out of the first on one-year wonder concerns and so-so tape.
29. Houston (from Baltimore) - Georgia Tech WR Stephen Hill - The Texans are in the new position of being able to take a luxury pick. Hill's speed will open things up for Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels, and punish teams that load the box to stop Arian Foster, even if his shaky hands cost them some big plays.
30. San Francisco - Stanford TE Coby Fleener - I have to give a nod to Sidelineview.com's Lance Zierlein for planting this idea in my head in giving the Cardinals their third first-rounder taken this year, in addition to reuniting Fleener with his college coach Jim Harbaugh. Even with Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker, the 49ers can't pass on Fleener.
31. Carolina (from New England) - Clemson DT Brandon Thompson The last time Marty Hurney gave New England a future pick to move up, it backfired as Armanti Edwards was the return on the 33rd pick of the 2011 draft, but Thompson's status as possibly the best "immovable object" defensive tackle (and playing in the Panthers backyard) in the draft forces his hand to move up before Indianapolis and St. Louis would get three combined cracks at him in the early second.
32. New York Giants - Alabama SS Mark Barron - Kenny Phillips and Antrel Rolle are a quality safety duo, but Jerry Reese knows value when he sees it.
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