NCAA Tournament 2012: Most Likely Upsets in Sweet 16

Can your bracket handle any more upsets?

I hope so. They're going to happen and they're not going to stop happening until the tournament is over. Slowly but surely, your bracket will die.

Unless you've correctly picked the overall winner. If you managed to do that, you're good.

Regardless who you picked, it's on to the Sweet 16 for all of us in the next couple days. We're bound to see some more upsets, ones that will destroy a great many brackets. 

Here's a hint: You're going to want to keep an eye on the four games listed below. They're the games most likely to end in upsets.

4. No. 13 Ohio over No. 1 North Carolina

It was reported by ESPN.com on Tuesday that the Tar Heels are preparing to play Ohio without star point guard Kendall Marshall.

Makes sense. Marshall suffered a fracture in his right wrist in the Round of 32, and he just had surgery on Monday morning. The odds of him playing are somewhere between slim and none.

The Tar Heels will still have the Bobcats beat in terms of overall talent out on the court, but the danger is that they'll fall apart without Marshall, who is a master at running Carolina's offense. Worse, he's also taken it on himself to be more of a scoring threat in recent games, which is just another thing North Carolina will (likely) be missing.

The pressure will be on Carolina's bigs to overwhelm Ohio's bigs (who aren't very big by comparison). To actually win the game, the Tar Heels will need somebody to step up big. Harrison Barnes is as good a candidate as any, but you just never know when he's going to lay an egg.

So I consider Carolina to be very much at risk against Ohio. The Tar Heels can win, but all bets are off if they are forced to play without Marshall.

No. 7 Florida over No. 3 Marquette

The Gators have had it pretty easy so far in the tournament, taking care of an outgunned Virginia squad and blowing out a Norfolk State squad that was in line for a reality check after its shocking upset of Missouri.

Marquette has had it slightly tougher, as the Golden Eagles got tested by Murray State in the Round of 32.

Between the two teams, Marquette is more dangerous on paper, as the Golden Eagles have a very dangerous offense headed by a dangerous combo in Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom. 

But the Gators are a good match for Marquette. The Gators won't be overwhelmed by Marquette's uptempo approach to the game, and they have the athletes to match them stride for stride. The truly scary part about Florida, however, is that the Gators haven't gotten hot from distance yet. If they do against Marquette, it will be the Gators overwhelming the the Golden Eagles and not the other way around.

And remember, this is not uncharted territory for Billy Donovan and the Gators.

No. 11 NC State over No. 2 Kansas

At the start of the tournament, the Wolfpack were a trendy sleeper pick.

Not anymore. The secret is out. NC State has looked very good so far in this tournament, easily dispatching San Diego State and outlasting a tough Georgetown squad. 

The Jayhawks are my pick to win the Midwest Region, but even I know they're far from a perfect team. Any team that can effectively limit Thomas Robinson will level the playing field, and that's when Kansas will be ripe for an upset.

NC State has the players to level said playing field, chief among them being C.J. Leslie. He's actually cooled down somewhat in the tournament, but he's still an outstanding player who will make life tough for Robinson and the Jayhawks.

It won't just be about stopping Leslie. The Wolfpack have had four players score in double figures in each of their first two tournament games. It's going to be very hard for Kansas to match that kind of scoring balance.

No. 4 Wisconsin over No. 1 Syracuse

The Orange have done well without Fab Melo. Better than most people thought they would do, I'll wager.

Nevertheless, Syracuse will be very ripe for an upset against Wisconsin. 

The key all along to beating Syracuse has been to get the Orange in the half court and make them create buckets, which is not their forte. They've done just fine against the likes of UNC-Asheville and Kansas State, but Wisconsin is an entirely different challenge.

The Badgers are the best defensive team in the country, leading the nation in scoring defense during the regular season and finishing high in several other key defensive categories. Against Syracuse, Wisconsin will deny the three-point shot and make the Orange funnel the ball inside. This is when Melo's absence will be felt the most. 

At the other end, Wisconsin's methodical offense will limit Syracuse's ability to get out in transition, effectively denying Syracuse the chance to dictate the tempo of the game.

It all adds up to a nightmare matchup for the top-seeded Orange.