The Early Bird Doesn't Always Get the Worm

To the surprise of some, Sam Bradford decided to return to college. To the surprise of most, ESPN broke, just hours after Bradford's announcement, that Mark Sanchez will declare for the NFL Draft Thursday.

Here at USC, the news that Sanchez plans to go pro is a shock, but at the same time not inexplicable.

Sanchez rarely made a dumb decision on the field this year and only time will tell if he's making his biggest blunder off the field.

In this case, the choice to go pro is similar to a calling for play action on 4th-and-short; it's not the safest move, but it definitely could result in a big gain.

With the news breaking shortly after Bradford's decision, the thought process is clear. With Heisman finalists Bradford, Tim Tebow, and Colt McCoy all returning to school, the quarterback pool in the draft will be a shallow one, much shallower than next year, when Tebow, McCoy, and Sanchez will all run out of NCAA eligibility and Bradford is likely to forego his senior season.

Sanchez isn't dumb, he knows his best chance to guarantee the big bucks is the 2009 Draft.

But, that certainly is not the best guarantee for success. Sanchez is said by many experts as the most talented quarterback of the whole lot and some have gone as far to say that he's the best quarterback to play for Pete Carroll at USC (which includes Heisman Trophy winners Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart), but he's not regarded that way...yet.

While Sanchez might have all the talent in the world, with only one season at starting quarterback, much of it still lies in his potential. He quietly put together a very impressive season with 34 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, but he was never seriously considered for the Heisman and fell just short of the chance to win a National Championship.

If Sanchez goes pro, he leaves behind a lot of accolades that he could conceivably have won in the 2009 NCAA season, guaranteeing himself as a top draft choice, and an immediate impact (think Matt Ryan) in the NFL.

In this instance, Sanchez passes on the opportunity to develop his full potential at the college level and come into the NFL ready to lead a team right away.

Only one year as a starting quarterback raises a lot of questions about just how good Sanchez could be and makes him ill suited to jump into a starting situation in the NFL next year, which means that he probably wouldn't get selected near the top of the draft by teams looking for a player to start from Day One. (He could be this year's Aaron Rodgers, who didn't start until his fourth season.)

Sure, Sanchez started 16 games in college, which is 16 more than, say, Matt Cassel started for USC. But Cassel was a last-round pick and, like Rodgers, it took him four seasons until he finally earned his due in the NFL.

Sanchez shouldn't wait that long; if he does, he should have waited the extra year in college to come out as a quarterback who could have started immediately. He's better than Cassel, he's better than Rodgers, but without another year to develop his game in college, people might not find that out for another four years.

I'll never fault a player for staying in college, but, if he falters at the professional level, I will fault him for leaving too early. Sanchez has plenty of incentive to return to USC and his family certainly isn't strapped for the cash.

If Thursday's announcement is to go pro, it will be based around perceived draft spot and according monetary bonuses, because no matter what Mark Sanchez announces, he probably won't reach his potential to start in the NFL until at least 2010.