NCAA Bracket 2012: Sweet 16 Spread Picks and Predictions

The field of 68 has dwindled to the Sweet 16, and these are my predictions against the spread for every game in the best round of the NCAA tournament.

A rematch between Kentucky and Indiana headlines the Sweet 16, but there are also three games featuring teams seeded in double digits, including No. 10 Xavier, No. 11 North Carolina State and No. 13 Ohio.

The state of Ohio has been doing well in the Big Dance, with four teams in the Sweet 16, and at least one moving on to the Elite Eight.

The Sweet 16 in this year's tournament is going to be a great round to watch.

Here are my predictions against the spread.

*Note: All point spreads courtesy of ESPN Insider Simulation

No. 1 Syracuse vs. No. 4 Wisconsin

Time: 7:15pm ET (Thursday)

Region: East

Point Spread: Syracuse by 4.5

Despite losing seven-footer Fab Melo due to eligibility issues, Syracuse is still a great team.

Syracuse has excellent guards, plays tight defense with Jim Boeheim's 2-3 zone and is one of the deepest teams in the country.

The Orange will play Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. The Badgers have arguably the best defense in the country, as coach Bo Ryan has his guys playing disruptive defense and forcing turnovers.

Led by point guard Jordan Taylor, the team can knock down big shots and beat some good teams.

This game is bound to be a defensive struggle, as both teams play excellent defense. Wisconsin will not be able to take advantage of Syracuse's lack of a true big man inside, while the Orange can get out in transition to negate Wisconsin's excellent half-court defense.

Syracuse is hot right now, blowing Kansas State out in the Round of 32. I see them beating Wisconsin in the Sweet 16 and covering the spread.

Prediction: Syracuse (-4.5)

No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 4 Louisville

Time: 7:47pm ET (Thursday)

Region: West

Point Spread: Michigan State by 5

Tom Izzo's Michigan State team could be the seventh he takes to the Final Four, but they will have to beat No. 4 Louisville if they are going to do so.

Led by senior forward Draymond Green, this team has a lot of potential.

Keith Appling is a great guard, while Derrick Nix gives the team a true big man inside.

Green is versatile enough to be considered a 230-pound small forward, and he recorded a triple-double in the team's first game of the 2012 NCAA tournament with 24 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists. With Tom Izzo at the helm, this is a truly dangerous team with Final Four potential.

The Spartans will take on Rick Pitino's Louisville Cardinals in a coaching battle between two of the game's finest.

However, there is a glaring flaw which becomes apparent when looking at the Cardinals—they can't stop big men.

Pitino's bunch have been burned by bigs in both tournament games that they have played so far. While the team managed to control big men during the Big East tournament, they will not be able to stop the deadly combination of Nix and Green.

I see Sparty covering the spread with ease in this game.

Prediction: Michigan State (-5)

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 6 Cincinnati

Time: 9:45pm ET (Thursday)

Region: East

Point Spread: Ohio State by 7

In my mind, Ohio State looks like one of two teams playing championship basketball right now—the other being Kentucky.

Thad Matta's crew, led by big man Jared Sullinger, are hot.

With Aaron Craft coming off of one of the best performances of his career, DeShaun Thomas averaging 24.5 points per game in the tournament and Sullinger dominating as always, this team is lethal.

The Buckeyes play Cincinnati next. After making a deep run in the Big East tournament and eventually losing to Louisville in the finals, this team came into the Big Dance hot and have continued that streak, knocking off ACC tournament champion Florida State.

Led by big man Yancy Gates and guards Dion Dixon, Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright, this team has the inside-out threats to hang with Ohio State. 

Cincinnati is a dangerous team that could possibly pose a problem for Ohio State, and I see them doing so. I don't expect them to beat the best team in the East region, but they will certainly keep it closer than the spread would lead you to expect.

Prediction: Cincinnati (+7)

No. 3 Marquette vs. No. 7 Florida

Time: 10:17pm ET (Thursday)

Region: West

Point Spread: Marquette by 1.5

Marquette's two-headed monster of Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom has led them through the NCAA tournament so far, combining for 39.8 points per game in the Big Dance.

Marquette is highly dependent on these two to lead them through games.

Florida has arguably the best backcourt in the country with Bradley Beal, Mike Rosario, Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton. They also have big man Patric Young inside, but they cannot stop elite big men.

I see Marquette winning this game because of the play of Jae Crowder. I see Crowder as a mismatch for the Gators inside, and he will end up being their downfall.

Prediction: Marquette (-1.5)

No. 3 Baylor vs No. 10 Xavier

Time: 7:15pm ET (Friday)

Region: South

Point Spread: Baylor by 6

Baylor relied on their big men to get them to the NCAA tournament, but they have not been carrying the load in the Big Dance so far.

Guards Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip have been combining for 39.5 points per game.

Baylor is going to need their frontcourt of Perry Jones III, Quincy Miller and Quincy Acy to step up if they are going to go advance in the NCAA tournament, but only one will have to step up to beat Xavier.

The Musketeers have a great backcourt with Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons, but what completes their team is seven-footer Kenny Frease.

Frease is the reason one of Baylor's big men will need to step up, because if no one plays well against him inside, Xavier will win.

I see Scott Drew getting his Bears ready for this game, and I think Jackson and Heslip will continue to shine, while at least one big man will step up.

However, Xavier is a scrappy, pesky team that won't go away, and this game will come down to the wire, being much closer than the spread with Baylor still winning.

Prediction: Xavier (+6)

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 13 Ohio

Time: 7:47pm ET (Friday)

Region: Midwest

Point Spread: North Carolina by 10.5

Point guard Kendall Marshall's status is still uncertain for North Carolina's game against Ohio, but I am confident that he will not play. Marshall had surgery on his broken wrist, and the rehab for this type of injury can take up to six months. 

Marshall is the team's best point guard by far, and with him hurt, North Carolina will need someone else to step up.

The team's leading assister right now is 6'11" forward John Henson, who averages only 1.3 per game.

Ohio has the better guards in this game, as D.J. Cooper and Walter Offutt are combining for 36.0 points per game.

The Bobcats are sure to keep this game close. While North Carolina should definitely win this game, it won't be by double-digits like the spread would indicate.

Prediction: Ohio (+10.5)

No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 11 North Carolina State

Time: 10:17pm ET (Friday)

Region: Midwest

Point Spread: Kansas by 7.5

Kansas survived a scare from No. 10 Purdue to make it to the Sweet 16, as the Boilermakers were playing inspired basketball led by an unstoppable Robbie Hummel.

The Jayhawks are still a great team led by National Player of the Year finalist Thomas Robinson along with point guard Tyshawn Taylor. 

With a great inside-outside combination of Robinson and Taylor, this team can hang with anyone in the country.

The Jayhawks now run into one of the hottest teams in the NCAA tournament: North Carolina State. The Wolfpack cannot be stopped right now, but they have four days to cool off before they play Kansas.

Led by sophomore C.J. Leslie and a cast of players who are playing some of the best basketball of their careers, this team won't go down without a fight.

However, I do think that this team will go down, but it won't be by more than five points, as Kansas has had some difficulties against hot teams.

Prediction: North Carolina State (+7.5)

No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 4 Indiana

Time: 9:45pm ET (Friday)

Region: South

Point Spread: Kentucky by 8.5

Kentucky has one of the most talented teams in history.

With no less than seven future NBA players, up to four lottery picks and possibly the first two picks in the 2012 NBA draft, this team has enough talent to win it all.

The question with the Wildcats is not their skill, their big men or even their guards. The biggest question is whether or not the team's youth and inexperience will hurt them.

By combining three starters from last year's Final Four team and four of the best recruits in the 2011 class, including three of the top eight, this team is stacked. If point guard Marquis Teague keeps playing like he did against Iowa State, the rest of the teams in the Sweet 16 had better watch out.

One of the two teams to beat this incredible Kentucky team was Indiana. The Hoosiers pulled off a miraculous win against Kentucky on Christian Watford's buzzer-beating three to win 73-72.

In that game Anthony Davis also got into foul trouble early on and missed big portions of the game, which is one of the ways to make this team vulnerable. I can't see him making the same mistake twice.

Indiana still has the potential to beat Kentucky, but since this game is at a neutral site (one closer to Kentucky), and the Wildcats will be seeking revenge, I don't think Indiana will be able to avoid a blowout.

Prediction: Kentucky (-8.5)

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