San Francisco 49ers Shouldn't Ditch Their "QB Next Door" for Peyton Manning

Alex Smith hasn't always been the prettiest quarterback on the NFL block, but he's been there for the San Francisco 49ers, and the Niners shouldn't give that up for the latest hot name to come available.

UPDATE (3/19): Peyton Manning has signed with the Denver Broncos leaving Alex Smith to either re-sign with the 49ers or leave for Miami.

Anyone who was a teenager in the late 90's knows this immutable truth: the "girl next door" is always a better option than the hot damaged girl that just moved to town.

How do we know this? 1000's of books and movies crammed it down our throats, most notably with Dawson's Creek—otherwise known as, the only reason anyone knew where "The WB" was on their cable listings.

It may sound like a stretch, but this San Francisco 49ers/Alex Smith/Peyton Manning love triangle is patterning itself a lot after the angst-filled drama of a 90's era teen drama and Dawson's Creek is actually a pretty solid comparison.

Not a Dawson's Creek fan? That's fine, I'll walk you through.

The San Francisco 49ers Are Dawson Leery

At the center of this QB triangle is the San Francisco 49ers, who are falling for the biggest trap in the book. Just like Dawson, who fell head over heels for Jen Lindley when she moved to Capeside, the 49ers are too busy checking out the latest and greatest prospects to notice the quarterback right in front of their proverbial nose.

By chasing after Jen in season one, Dawson set events in motion to lose his girl next door for good. While the series would last six whole seasons, almost everything was predicated on the insanely tangled web of hormone-charged emotion that was contrived in season one.

Seriously, I kid you not, six seasons later, the only thing that is reconciled in the Dawson's Creek universe is that Dawson and Joey are really just friends. Meanwhile, the series ends and Dawson is still pensive and alone while Joey is still with Dawson's best friend Pacey.

Back to football.

The 49ers need to be careful with this franchise defining decision. This isn't just about what will happen in 2012. The choice between Alex Smith and Peyton Manning will affect the franchise far into the future. The Niners have been successful and, likely, could be successful traveling down a number of different roads.

Yet, choosing Manning over Smith could be one road that leads to a whole lot of angst.

Alex Smith is Joey Potter

Alex Smith isn't a world-beater under center. No one is saying that. 

Last year, Pro Football Focus ranked Smith as the eighth best quarterback in the game. Our own Matt Miller was a little less bullish, ranking Smith as 14th best overall.

Still, whether it's eighth or 14th, Alex Smith wasn't a terrible quarterback in 2011. 

In fact, Smith has never really been a terrible quarterback. Yes, he's had some bumps along the way, but the biggest issue has always been that he hasn't lived up to his lofty draft status as a number one overall pick. It's important to remember that, pre-Harbaugh, when Smith wasn't as good as in 2011, he was dealing with constant scheme changes and subpar personnel.

If Smith had done everything he's done in the NFL as a seventh round pick, he'd be lauded as an all-time steal. Simply put, Smith being a "bust" doesn't have anything to do with also being a slightly-above average quarterback. It just changes people's perception of him.

Joey Potter was played by Katie Holmes. Any red blooded American man knows that there's plenty to like about Katie Holmes, but the situation in which Dawson and Joey were put together changed Dawson's perception of what he had.

Plenty of old adages communicate the same concept. Whether you think the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence or you echo 80's glam band, Cinderella (and Joni Mitchell) in saying, "You don't know what you've got til' it's gone," it's clear that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Peyton Manning is Jen Lindley

Jen was damaged.

While she attracted Dawson and a number of other suitors, Jen always had issues and never seemed to stop causing drama no matter who her love interest was. She began the series leaving New York City when her parents couldn't stand her anymore and ended the series dying of congestive heart failure.

What a life.

Manning has a lot going for him as well, but he's got a lot of issues as an NFL quarterback. The Indianapolis Colts gave up on Manning whether than bet that his amazing talent could overcome both his age and his health issues.

Regardless of where Manning ends up, many fear that neck surgeries have left him a different quarterback from the one-time NFL MVP we all know and (most of us) love. So, while Manning wasn't a "Jen" two years ago, he certainly fits the comparison these days.

It's no coincidence then, that Manning is creating drama around the entire NFL. First, people questioned if he would supplant Mark Sanchez in New York. Then, the media wanted him to create a domino effect in Denver shipping Tim Tebow back to his home state of Florida. Now he's got Alex Smith and Jake Locker looking over their shoulders.

But, is Peyton Manning really worth all this drama?

For the San Francisco 49ers, he simply isn't. Just like Michelle Williams/Jen Lindley isn't necessarily any better of an option than Katie Holmes/Joey Potter (and, for Dawson, ended up much worse), Smith has everything the Niners need in a quarterback and shouldn't be cast aside.

So, Who's Pacey Witter?

We've been calling it a love triangle, but remember that Dawson's Creek was actually a four-sided web of intrigue (is that a love rhombus?). When Dawson and Joey initially went their separate ways, Pacey (Dawson's best friend) jumped in and caused trouble—first with Joey and later with Jen.

Alex Smith has a scheduled visit with the Miami Dolphins and was going to meet with the Seattle Seahawks before they signed Matt Flynn. In short, Smith isn't waiting around for the Niners to finish their courtship of Manning. More visits could be on the way.

Just like how Dawson never ever considered the possibility of Joey leaving and being happy with someone else, the Niners expected Smith to always be there for them to fall back on. After 2011, the Niners low-balled Smith and expected him to give them a hometown discount.

In the end, it was just another example of the Niners lack of commitment that could send Smith rushing into the arms of another franchise.

The beauty of Dawson's Creek is that, in the end, Dawson doesn't get the girl. Pacey does. Pacey ends up living happily ever after with Joey and, because Jen is just a little too damaged, Dawson ends up alone.

With the Niners chasing after Manning, Miami (or another lucky franchise) could easily be the Pacey to San Francisco's Dawson and reap the benefits of a quality quarterback coming available.

Follow @Schottey

Special Thanks to David Hedeen for the custom graphic.

Michael Schottey is an NFL Associate Editor for Bleacher Report and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America. He has professionally covered both the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions, as well as NFL events like the scouting combine and the Senior Bowl.