NCAA Upset Predictions 2012: Pinpointing Early Upsets for Top Seeds

It is important to know when and where top seeds will lose. Those are the games that cripple brackets and define tournaments. 

In this case, I'm considering a top seed as anything as a four or higher for the round of 64, and a two or one in the proceeding rounds. 

Here is where and why top seeds will fall. 

No. 4 Wisconsin in the Round of 64 to No. 13 Montana 

Montana is peaking at the right time. It enters the tournament having won 14 straight. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has won just six of its last 10. 

Of course, the Badgers are playing against a higher level of competition, but winning streaks build confidence no matter who they come against, just as losses take a toll on confidence. 

What is also going to help Montana in this game is that Wisconsin's slow style of play will not throw Montana off of its game. It likes things slow as well. 

Both teams like to run their offense to get good looks, but those good looks are going to be hard to find as both play excellent defense. 

This game is going to come down to which team can make the most contested shots, and that is where Montana's confidence will be the difference. 

No. 1 Syracuse in the Round of 32 to No. 8 Kansas State

It isn't going to take long for Fab Melo's absence from the Orange to doom them. Melo was the Orange's leading rebounder and the only real shot-blocking presence they had. 

He was the glue to their 2-3 zone—the piece that locked down the paint. 

Not having that piece is going to kill them in this game. Kansas State does a good job in the paint. It is a solid rebounding team at 41st in the nation. 

The Orange are going to lose the battle on the boards in this game without Melo. They also won't have Melo to dissuade the Wildcats guard Rodney McGruder from driving deep into the lane. 

This will lead to easy points for McGruder, and it will break down the Syracuse zone and create good looks for his teammates. 

No. 2 Duke in the Round of 32 to No. 7 Notre Dame

The Blue Devils are heavily reliant on their outside shot. They finished with the 82nd-highest percentage of their points coming from three-pointers, a number that would be even higher if the Blue Devils hadn't cruised to so many easy victories.

This plays right into the Irish's hands. They are 40th in allowed three-point shooting percentage. 

This will allow Notre Dame to slow down Duke from the outside. Combine this with the fact that Notre Dame likes to slow games down, and Duke is not going to be able to hit its rhythm. 

Offensively, the Irish like to move the ball around. They finished 56th in assists—a number that looks even more amazing considering they were 203rd in points. This will lead to them getting plenty of good looks against the poor Duke defense—it was 211th in points allowed. 

Notre Dame is going to be putting in easy buckets, while Duke struggles from the perimeter.