Joe Lunardi NCAA Tournament Bracket: Teams He Is Vastly Underestimating

Joe Lunardi knows more about the NCAA tournament selection process than we will ever know, but that doesn't mean his scientific formula won't leave himself open to criticism. 

Science and sports often don't mix, because fans want to see these players and teams before making any decisions. When you try to add complex formulas and algorithms to the mix, you just want to tune it all out. 

Still, we wanted to present you with a look at Lunardi's odds-on-favorites to advance through the tournament, and tell you where is formula is missing the mark. 

Florida State (Odds to make Final Four: 4.0%)

While the Seminoles were the No. 3 team in the ACC all season, their march through the conference tournament has improved their stock dramatically. 

Yet they are still being given a small sliver of hope to reach the Final Four based on Lunardi's formula, so why the lack of respect?

They would seem to be a good tournament team. They play strong defense and have long, athletic scorers that can get hot for a six-game stretch.

The Seminoles are playing as well as anyone in the East Region. They deserve a lot more respect than they are given. 

Michigan (Odds to make Sweet 16: 30.7%)

John Beilein has done a great job of rebuilding this Michigan program. The Wolverines are loaded with talent, both experienced seniors and confident underclassmen. 

Yet the formula calculates them as having a less than 31 percent chance to win two games. Their bracket is not that difficult, with a game against Ohio out of the gate and then the Temple-California/South Florida winner. 

The Wolverines are clearly superior to those four teams, both in talent and results, so they should have little problem making it to the Sweet 16.

In fact, don't be surprised if Trey Burke ends up being one of the most outstanding players in this tournament. His shot is getting better, and he is the player the Wolverines turn to for big plays. 

Missouri (Odds to Win Tournament: 5.9%)

The Tigers are actually given a good chance to win the whole thing. But it still feels like there is a lot more that Lunardi's formula is overlooking with this team. 

They rank behind teams like Ohio State, Kansas and Syracuse. No disrespect to them, but Missouri is better than they are. Their bracket is not that bad, with Michigan State being the biggest threat as the No. 1 seed. 

Kentucky would be their biggest challenge in the Final Four, but we have seen the Wildcats struggle in the SEC tournament. Perhaps they are starting to run out of steam late in the year. 

No matter what the reason, the Tigers are better than a 5.9% favorite in this NCAA tournament. 

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