NCAA Bracket 2012: Odds on the Chances of a No. 12 Seed Upset

At least one No. 5 seed will fall to a No. 12 seed. It essentially happens every year, and this year will be no different. 

A No. 12 seed has only been shut out of at least one win in two of the last 22 tournaments. Last year, one No. 12 seed beat a No. 5, and the year before that three won. 

Here is each No. 12 vs. No. 5 matchup and the chances of an upset. 

*Point spreads according to ESPN

No. 12 VCU vs. No. 5 Wichita State

Point Spread: Wichita State -6

This is not a good matchup for VCU. The frontcourt is the strength of both of these teams, but VCU is at a severe height disadvantage.

They don't have anyone on their roster that will be able to handle Wichita's seven-foot center Garrett Stutz. The Shockers are going to get killed on the boards in this game. 

This is not a good place to start when looking for an upset. 

Chances of Upset: 20 percent

No. 12 Long Beach State vs. No. 5 New Mexico

Point Spread: New Mexico -4.5

This will be a fun matchup of contrasting styles. New Mexico wins with a strong frontcourt and rebounding. Long Beach State wins with good guard play, and getting out and running. 

Long Beach State is going to have to hit their shots if they are going to win this game because they aren't going to get many second looks. 

Long Beach guard Casper Ware will be able to break down this defense. He is quick and knows how to get to the lane, but his teammates are still going to have to hit their shots if they are going to win. 

Chances of Upset: 40 percent

No. 12 Harvard vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt

Point Spread: Vanderbilt -7

Harvard loves to slow the game down. They have a deliberate offense, and they work the ball around to get a good shot. This is why they are 229th in scoring and 44th in field goal percentage. 

This is going to give Vanderbilt fits. They like to play a much more up tempo game, and will have a hard time getting into a rhythm. This leaves them ripe for an upset. 

Vanderbilt is flying high after entering this tournament with an upset victory over Kentucky, but they are going to be knocked quickly back to reality in this game. 

Chances of Upset: 40 percent

No. 12 California/South Florida vs. No. 5 Temple 

Point Spread: N/A

Temple will be sitting around and waiting for the winner of the Cal vs. South Florida First Four game. 

This is a good scenario for an upset. The winner is going to be in rhythm, have the jitters out of the way and be ready to roll. 

I like Cal's chances to roll past South Florida, and I like their chances to pull off the upset here. Temple's offense is dominated by their guards, and the Bears have one of the better defensive guards in the country in Jorge Gutierrez. 

This is the best chance of an upset of all these matchups. 

Chances of Upset: 50 percent