NCAA Tournament 2012 Predictions: Predictions for Rounds 1 and 2

After four months of regular season play, and what seemed like one of the more interesting years in terms of bubble teams in recent memory, the 2012 NCAA Tournament is finally here.

Teams such as Iona and North Carolina State breathed a gigantic sigh of relief when they saw their names up on the board during CBS' Selection Sunday special. Meanwhile, schools like Seton Hall and Drexel are left to think about the one or two plays they could have made during the long season that may have gotten them an extra win somewhere and into the dance.

Snubs and controversy aside, the field of 68 is set, and everything is set to kick off on Tuesday night when Mississippi Valley State and Western Kentucky square off in the first of the "First Four" games to determine who advances to the round of 64.

With that said, I have filled out my bracket, and it wasn't easy.

So, here are my predictions for the First Four and the round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament:

FIRST FOUR

March 13th:

No. 16 Mississippi Valley State vs. No. 16 Western Kentucky

Prediction: Mississippi Valley State. The Delta Devils went 17-1 in the SWAC and played an extremely tough nonconference schedule. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky only went 15-18 on the season (7-9 in the Sun Belt). While WKU played some admirable nonconference games, it just doesn't have the overall resume that Mississippi Valley State does.

It's not like this one really matters anyway, because whomever wins will merely serve as a warmup for Kentucky.

No. 14 Iona vs. No. 14 BYU

Prediction: BYU. Perhaps the most puzzling move by the selection committee was its decision to insert Iona into the field of 68. Honestly, I am not too big of a fan of BYU's acceptance into the field, either, as I am not too enamored with its overall body of work. However, I feel that the Cougars are the superior team and will come out on top. I do think the game will be close, though.

March 14th:

No. 16 Vermont vs. No. 16 Lamar

Prediction: Lamar. Like father, like son. Lamar coach Pat Knight (the son of Bobby) went on a postgame tirade a couple of weeks ago, ripping into his team in a way that I'm sure made his old man proud. Well, his kids responded marvelously, reeling off six wins in a row and winning the Southland conference tournament.

I expect Knight's Cardinals to continue their march on Wednesday night.

No. 12 California vs. No. 12 South Florida

Prediction: South Florida. Let's be real. The Bulls are much more battle-tested than the Golden Bears, as the Big East and the Pac-12 are two separate worlds. California really does not even have any majorly impressive wins on its resume (its best victory came at Washington).

Although South Florida is not exactly a world-beater, it at least has wins over the likes of Cincinnati and Louisville.

While the Bulls don't have much in the way of offense (not one of their players averaged double-figures this season), they are a very good defensive team. I expect them to ride that defense to victory against Cal.

ROUND OF 64

South Region

No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 16 Mississippi Valley State

Prediction: Mississippi Valley State...gotcha. I don't think I really need to explain why Kentucky will win this game. Next.

No. 8 Iowa State vs. No. 9 Connecticut

Prediction: Connecticut. The Huskies are certainly one of the most dangerous lower-ranked teams in the tournament. Although they didn't win five games in five days to capture the Big East Tournament crown like last season, they have turned up their level of play of late, perhaps rallying around the return of Jim Calhoun.

Iowa State is a fine squad and plays in a great conference in the Big 12, but it got a tough draw with UConn, who I think will win this game. I'd be a bit worried if I were Kentucky, because Connecticut has the talent to make a run.

No. 5 Wichita State vs. No. 12 VCU

Prediction: VCU. Here is the first of the dreaded 5/12 matchups that seem to turn brackets sour every year. Of course, we all remember Shaka Smart and VCU, arguably the greatest Cinderella story in NCAA basketball history last season when they made the Final Four.

Now, this isn't even close to the same VCU squad as last year, but it is still a good ballclub that is led by a great coach. Wichita State had a remarkable season, but I think the Shockers fall victim to the Rams in an upset.

No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 New Mexico State

Prediction: Indiana. The Hoosiers are a very good team, and they play in what many believe to be the best conference in the land in the Big Ten. They have some outstanding wins this season, and the balance on this team is just incredible (four players averaged double-figures in scoring).

New Mexico State did win 26 games this season, and Indiana should not sleep on them, but I don't see the Hoosiers encountering much difficulty in this one.

No. 6 UNLV vs. No. 11 Colorado

Prediction: Colorado. The lovable Buffaloes went on a spectacular run to win the Pac-12 Tournament. Although I'm not too sure how much weight that holds given how terrible the Pac-12 was this season, they are a hot team, and it's always risky to bet against hot teams heading into the dance.

UNLV is certainly a very good squad and is rightfully a trendy pick to make some noise in the tournament, but I'm going with the underdog here: Colorado it is.

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 South Dakota State

Prediction: Baylor. The Bears have had sort of an up-and-down year, as they got swept by both Kansas and Missouri during the regular season, but then rebounded to beat the Jayhawks in the Big 12 Tournament, only to fall to the Tigers for the third time in the final.

That said, Baylor is a very athletic team that could pose significant matchup problems for many teams in the tournament. I don't see Perry Jones and company having any issues taking down South Dakota State here.

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Xavier

Prediction: Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish looked like they weren't even a tournament team midway through the season, but then something clicked, and Mike Brey's squad ripped off nine straight wins (including handing Syracuse its only loss of the regular season) to essentially lock up a bid before March even started.

It's a shame Tim Abromaitis got hurt two games into the season, because this team may very well have been a much higher seed had he been healthy. Anyway, based on Notre Dame's credentials and Xavier's rather disappointing regular season, I am going with the Irish here. It could be one of the better games of this round, so be sure to pay attention.

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Lehigh

Prediction: Duke. Duke should certainly win this game, but let me tell you something: I expect Lehigh to put up a fight. If you pay any sort of mind to teams that don't play in one of the power conferences, then I'm sure you've heard of C.J. McCollum, one of the most prolific scorers in the nation. If he can get going early, expect the Mountain Hawks to make this interesting, especially considering they shoot the three-ball rather well.

All of that said, I don't anticipate Austin Rivers and the rest of the Blue Devils laying an egg in this one. It won't be as easy as most Duke fans probably think, but they'll get the win.

West Region

No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 16 Long Island

Prediction: Michigan State. No explanation needed.

No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 9 Saint Louis

Prediction: Memphis. Some feel that Memphis was slighted with its seeding. Maybe, but when you look at the Tigers' resume, there really isn't much to jump up and down about. They own two wins over Tennessee, a win over Xavier, and they split with Southern Mississippi.

That said, I expect them to take down Rick Majerus' Billikens here in the round of 64. I'm just not as optimistic about Memphis' tournament prospects as others are.

No. 5 New Mexico vs. No. 12 Long Beach State

Prediction: Long Beach State. Don't laugh: Long Beach State is no joke. It played the toughest nonconference schedule in the nation, and it didn't just "play" a bunch of good teams; it nearly beat them, and on the road, too. The 49ers lost by six at North Carolina, eight at Kansas, two at Creighton, and four at San Diego State.

As you can see, they are no pushover.

New Mexico won the Mountain West Conference tournament and certainly earned its No. 5 seed, but I think the Lobos get ousted here by a team that could have easily been a No. 8 or 9 seed had it had a couple of bounces go its way during the regular season.

No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 13 Davidson

Prediction: Louisville. I won't lie: the mystique of Stephen Curry made me want to go with Davidson here, but then I realized that that was four long years ago and that Louisville is pretty darn good.

The Cardinals are hot right now, coming off a Big East Tournament championship in which they beat Seton Hall, Marquette (by 13), Notre Dame (by 14) and then Cincinnati to capture the crown.

Maybe it would be a different story if Curry suited up for this one, but he unfortunately isn't allowed.

No. 6 Murray State vs. No. 11 Colorado State

Prediction: Colorado State. Murray State had a tremendous year, putting together one of the most impressive seasons for a mid-major ever. However, I really like Colorado State. The Rams took down each of the "Big Three" in the Mountain West Conference this year, defeating San Diego State, UNLV, and New Mexico, so they know how to win big games.

Sure, Isaiah Canaan could go off and single-handedly lead the Racers to victory, but I'm picking another upset here.

No. 3 Marquette vs. No. 14 BYU

Prediction: Marquette. It seems as if people have been sleeping on the Golden Eagles all year, and I don't know why, because they are a very good team. They have two dynamic scorers in Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder, plus a mammoth of a man down low in Davante Gardner, although he is coming off of a knee sprain.

I don't think BYU will provide much resistance in this one. Marquette wins rather easily.

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Virginia

Prediction: Florida. When you take a look at each of these two teams' resumes, nothing really stands out and makes you say, "wow, that's impressive." Still, you have to admire the type of balance that the Gators have offensively, as five of their players averaged double-figures in scoring this season.

They also shoot the three very well, so if they get hot, the game can get out of hand quickly. Virginia is a solid team and has an extremely nice player in double-double threat Mike Scott, but I think Florida is the better squad.

No. 2 Missouri vs. No. 15 Norfolk State

Prediction: Missouri. Undoubtedly, Missouri is a Final Four contender, and a potential Sweet 16 matchup with Marquette should already have college basketball fans salivating. I don't think the high-octane Tigers will have any problems coming up with a win against Norfolk State, although the Spartans do enter the tournament having won seven in a row.

East Region

No. 1 Syracuse vs. No. 16 UNC-Asheville

Prediction: Syracuse. I am still unsure about Syracuse's prospects as a title contender (and we'll talk more about that as March Madness proceeds), but the Orange will have no trouble dispatching UNC-Asheville. 

No. 8 Kansas State vs. No. 9 Southern Mississippi

Prediction: Kansas State. I really like Frank Martin's ballclub. The Wildcats can lay claim to some spectacular wins this year, including a season sweep of Missouri. As far as Southern Mississippi goes, it didn't really do too much to impress me this year.

I think Kansas State wins this one rather comfortably. This is a team that I think can make some serious noise in the Big Dance.

No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Harvard

Prediction: Vanderbilt. Congratulations to Harvard for making the field for the first time since 1946. However, the Crimson's celebration will be short-lived, as they are running into a hot Vanderbilt squad that just beat Kentucky to win the SEC Tournament.

Vanderbilt is quickly becoming a media darling with experts picking them to go deep into the dance. While I am not as in love with the Commodores as many others are, I fully expect them to win this game.

No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 Montana

Prediction: Montana. That brings us to what is probably my biggest upset pick of the round so far (yes, that is foreshadowing), and let me explain why. The Grizzlies have won 14 straight games, and they have only lost once since Dec. 17.

They can also shoot the daylights out of the ball and are the type of underdog that can actually blow out a higher-seeded team because of that reason. Now, I am not saying that I expect Montana to blow the doors off Wisconsin, but I like them to win the game.

No. 6 Cincinnati vs. No. 11 Texas

Prediction: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are playing outstanding basketball right now, and the Longhorns are just feeling fortunate to sneak into the field. I think Texas could give Cincinnati a fight, but I am a big fan of Yancy Gates and his teammates. I like the Bearcats here and as a potential sleeper to advance deep into the tournament.

No. 3 Florida State vs. No. 14 St. Bonaventure

Prediction: Florida State. Well, Florida State's dismantling of North Carolina two months ago was no fluke, as it again bested the Tar Heels (who were albeit playing without John Henson) in the final of the ACC Tournament.

St. Bonaventure is probably the most hated team in the field of 68, as it certainly took away a spot from a bubble team when it upset Xavier in the Atlantic 10 final on Sunday afternoon.

The key for the Bonnies is Andrew Nicholson, who had 26 points, 14 rebounds, and eight blocks in the team's bid-clinching victory over the Musketeers. He is a heck of a player, and if he can put forth the type of effort against the Seminoles that he did on Sunday against Xavier, we could be in for an interesting game.

Still, Florida State is the vastly superior team, and I think the 'Noles get it done.

No. 7 Gonzaga vs. No. 10 West Virginia

Prediction: West Virginia. Here's where that phrase "battle-tested" comes into play again. It's not that the Mountaineers are much better than the Bulldogs, because they aren't, but I am inclined to pick the team from a conference that sent nine teams to the dance rather than one that lost its conference final.

Make sure you catch this game because watching Kevin Jones and Robert Sacre go at it in the paint is must-see entertainment.

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 15 Loyola (MD)

Prediction: Ohio State. More than likely, this game will never be the least bit intriguing. That is, unless you're a Buckeyes fan who wants to see what kinds of crazy numbers Jared Sullinger puts up. No disrespect to the Greyhounds, but they are just overmatched here.

Midwest Region

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Lamar

Prediction: North Carolina. No postgame tirade from Knight can possibly help Lamar compete with the Tar Heels.

No. 8 Creighton vs. No. 9 Alabama

Prediction: Alabama. The Crimson Tide do not exactly have the world's greatest body of work, and frankly, I'm fairly surprised most people already had them in the tournament a couple of weeks ago. All things considered, Creighton does not have a glittering resume either.

If you can contain Doug McDermott, you have a very solid shot at beating the Blue Jays, and I think Alabama will do that. You have to be careful, though, because Creighton has four players (including McDermott) who shot over 40 percent from beyond the arc this season. 

No. 5 Temple vs. No. 12 South Florida

Prediction: South Florida. This will be a game of offense versus defense, as Temple has two great scorers in Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt and the Bulls have that great defense I was talking about earlier. I am of the school that thinks good defense beats good offense, and that is why I am going with South Florida here (no; it is not just the Big East factor).

I have a feeling that the Bulls are going to surprise a lot of people in this tournament.

No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 13 Ohio

Prediction: Michigan. The Wolverines have one of the best backcourts in the nation with Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke, and I expect that to be the major difference in this game. In order for Michigan to make a run to the Final Four, Hardaway Jr. and Burke will have to be at their best. It might not take that to top Ohio, but it certainly will afterward.

No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 11 North Carolina State

Prediction: North Carolina State. The Wolfpack came this close to beating North Carolina and advancing to the ACC Tournament final, but its best player in C.J. Leslie fouled out far too early and the Tar Heels came out on top. To me, there is no question that N.C. State is one of the 68 best teams in the country.

I'm sure you can already tell how much I love balance, and the Wolfpack have that, with five players averaging double-figures in scoring this season. I just think that is so important to be a legitimate threat in the dance. San Diego State is definitely tough, but N.C. State will comes away with the win.

No. 3 Georgetown vs. No. 14 Belmont

Prediction: Belmont. Remember when I said Montana over Wisconsin was my biggest upset pick "so far?" This is why, and the Bruins are eerily similar to that Montana team, as they also enter the tournament having won 14 straight, and since Dec. 21, they are 20-2. Also worth noting is that on Belmont's first game of the season, it lost by one to Duke.

This is a good team. A very good one, in fact. The Bruins are also very experienced, as their five top scorers are either juniors or seniors (and three of them are seniors), and that helps a lot. Yes, Georgetown is experienced as well, but the Hoyas worry me a bit. I could be completely off on this one, but my gut is telling me to go with Belmont.

No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 Purdue

Prediction: Purdue. Yes, the Boilermakers have been a model of inconsistency this season, failing to put together anything more than a four-game winning streak (which they did their first four games of the season). Still, the experienced duo of Robbie Hummel and Lewis Jackson is lethal, and I expect those two to be the difference in this one.

No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 Detroit

Prediction: Kansas. Thomas Robinson may very well be the best player in the country, and he and Tyshawn Taylor comprise one of the nation's most dangerous one-two punches. The Jayhawks won't have any problems taking down Detroit, and if Robinson and Taylor play up to par for the duration of the tournament, look for Kansas to make a deep run. Not that that would surprise anyone.