NCAA Bracket 2012: Ultimate Guide to Winning Your March Madness Pool

When it comes to March Madness, I become a much more popular person. People I rarely talk to go out of their way to pick my brain. Everyone that knows me knows just how good my track record is over the years. My qualifications? Over the last 14 years, I have only had two years in which I either didn't win something or was in the running to win something up until the end.

The first time for reference was 2000, when the Michigan State Spartans were led by the "Flintstones," Mateen Cleaves, Morris Peterson and Charlie Bell. The other time came last year. You can see my explanation as to what happened here; http://bleacherreport.com/articles/646978-final-four-2011-how-good-have-expert-predictions-been-so-far.

My best year came in 1999. I was informed before the championship game that I had already won the pool. When I asked if anyone had Connecticut winning the title instead of Duke (my pick), I was informed several people did, but that it didn't matter.

That's what happens when you nail 28 out of 32 in the first round, 13 of the Sweet 16, seven of the Elite Eight, three of the Final Four and both of the teams in the Finals matchup. Connecticut did win that game if you were wondering. So I only managed a squeaker instead of lapping the field.

Filling out a bracket is both an art form and a science. The most important factor when filling out a bracket is to take into consideration the point system for the pool you are involved in.

Most pools follow the traditional 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 scoring system. That scoring system is for amateurs. The pros like myself use a weighted multiplier system. It uses those same numbers, but as multipliers of the seed number instead of the actual point total itself.

For example, if you nail No. 1 seed Syracuse over No. 16 seed UNC Asheville, you only get one point (No. 1 seed x one point for first round games). However, if you call No. 12 seed Long Beach State upsetting No. 5 seed New Mexico you would get 12 points (No. 12 seed x one point for first round games).

Frankly, that is the way it should be. Why should you get the same amount of points for getting a gimme game right as you would a huge upset? If you have the onions that Bill Raftery would be jealous of and take a low seed for several rounds or a mid seed to go really deep, you can rack up a huge point total. My picks are based on that type of scoring system, since that is the type of pool I am in.

Here are several other rules to follow. You should almost never consider taking a 16th or 15th seed to win. Check to make sure the selection committee didn't do anything crazy, and then pencil in each of the first and second seeds to win in the first round.

I have never taken a 16th seed and only took a 15th seed once. That was in 2006 when I took Winthrop over Tennessee. Winthrop should have been at least a 12th seed that year and Tennessee a fifth seed at best. In the end, Tennessee needed a last-second shot to beat Winthrop.

Next, for close calls in the second round or later, don't necessarily take the team you think will win that matchup. I know it sounds crazy to say that. However, for close calls you should take the team more likely to be there.

If you consider it a toss-up or close to a toss-up, look at who that team had to play previously. If it had a really tough matchup while the other team had a cake walk, take the team that had the cake walk. This strategy will do wonders for you, even though it may seem counter-intuitive to pick a team you think is slightly more likely to lose in that particular matchup.

Employ the "hedge your bets" technique. Unless you absolutely love a certain low seed, don't pick it to win multiple rounds. Pick it to win round one, but pick against it in round two. This covers your butt in cases in which your upset pick doesn't come through for you.

Think with your head and not with your heart. You may love your alma mater, but be rational about its situation. This is the No. 1 problem that people run into when filling out their bracket.
You can't afford to give away points because you didn't have the heart to pick your school to lose when you should have. On that same note, don't pick a rival school to lose a game it has no business losing simply because you hate it.

These picks will not be 100 percent right. No one fills out a perfect bracket. I have found that if you can nail 75 percent of your picks in EVERY round and pick the champion correctly, you will finish in the top 10 percent of your pool. Unless you are in a winner-takes-all situation, top 10 percent should serve you well.

An important note for this year is the NBA Lockout from this previous summer. The looming lockout caused a large handful of high end players to return to school that otherwise might have opted for the draft. The results of which will almost for sure dictate who walks away with the title this year. Expect the deep runs to be very chalky.

Now on to the picks.

First, the No. 1 vs. No. 16 seeds

No. 1 Kentucky over winner of Mississippi Valley State and Western Kentucky (I predict Mississippi Valley State as the winner of that play-in game)
No. 1 Syracuse over UNC Asheville
No. 1 North Carolina over winner of Lamar and Vermont (I predict Lamar as the winner of that play-in game)
No. 1 Michigan State over LIU Brooklyn

Next, the No. 2 vs. No. 15 seeds

No. 2 Duke over Lehigh
No. 2 Ohio State over Loyola (MD)
No. 2 Kansas over Detroit
No. 2 Missouri over Norfolk State

Next, the No. 3 vs. No. 14 seeds

No. 3 Baylor over South Dakota State
No. 3 Florida State over Saint Bonaventure
No. 3 Marquette over winner of BYU and Iona (I predict BYU as the winner of that play-in game)
No. 14 Belmont over Georgetown

Next the No. 4 vs. No. 13 seeds

No. 4 Indiana over New Mexico State
No. 4 Wisconsin over Montana
No. 4 Michigan over Ohio
No. 4 Louisville over Davidson

Next, the No. 5 vs. No. 12 seeds

No. 5 Wichita State over VCU
No. 5 Vanderbilt over Harvard
No. 5 Temple over winner of California and South Florida (I predict California as the winner of that play-in game)
No. 12 Long Beach State over New Mexico (A 12th seed wins every year. I LOVE Long Beach State here. If I was in Vegas some money would be placed on this game.)

Next the No. 6 vs. No. 11 seeds

No. 6 UNLV over Colorado
No. 6 Cincinnati over Texas
No. 6 Murray State over Colorado State (Murray State was seeded WAY too low. Total slap in the face.)
No. 11 North Carolina State over San Diego State

Next, the No. 7 vs. No. 10 seeds

No. 7 Saint Mary's over Purdue
No. 7 Florida over Virginia (Florida is ranked WAY too low)
No. 10 Xavier over Notre Dame
No. 10 West Virginia over Gonzaga

Next, the No. 8 vs. No. 9 seeds

No. 8 Kansas State over Southern Mississippi
No. 8 Creighton over Alabama
No. 8 Memphis over Saint Louis
No. 9 Connecticut over Iowa State

Second Round Matchups, East Region

No. 1 Syracuse over No. 8 Kansas State
No. 2 Ohio State over No. 10 West Virginia
No. 5 Vanderbilt over No. 4 Wisconsin
No. 6 Cincinnati over No. 3 Florida State

Second Round Matchups, South Region

No. 1 Kentucky over No. 9 Connecticut
No. 2 Duke over No. 10. Xavier
No. 3 Baylor over No. 6 UNLV
No. 5 Wichita State over No. 4. Indiana

Second Round Matchups, Midwest Region

No. 1 North Carolina over No. 8 Creighton
No. 2 Kansas over No. 7 Saint Mary's
No. 5 Temple over No. 4 Michigan
No. 11 North Carolina State over No. 14 Belmont

Second Round Matchups, West Region

No. 6 Murray State over No. 3 Marquette
No. 7 Florida over No. 2 Missouri
No. 8 Memphis over No. 1 Michigan State
No. 12 Long Beach State over No. 4 Louisville

Sweet 16 Matchups, East Region

No. 5 Vanderbilt over No. 1 Syracuse
No. 2 Ohio State over No. 6 Cincinnati

Sweet 16 Matchups, South Region

No. 1 Kentucky over No. 5 Wichita State
No. 2 Duke over No. 3 Baylor

Sweet 16 Matchups, Midwest Region

No. 1 North Carolina over No. 5 Temple
No. 2 Kansas over No. 11 North Carolina State

Sweet 16 Matchups, West Region

No. 6 Murray State over No. 7 Florida
No. 8 Memphis over No. 12 Long Beach State

Elite Eight Matchups

No. 2 Ohio State over No. 5 Vanderbilt
No. 1 Kentucky over No. 2 Duke
No. 1 North Carolina over No. 2 Kansas
No. 6 Murray State over No. 8 Memphis

Final Four Matchups

No. 1 Kentucky over No. 6 Murray State
No. 1 North Carolina over No. 2 Ohio State

Championship Game

No. 1 Kentucky over No. 1 North Carolina

If you use some or all of these picks to win your pool, feel free to send me something nice in the mail. In the rare chance these picks fall flat on their face, feel free to throw barbs and rotten tomatoes my way as well.

Feel free to post comments and questions below. I intend to respond to as many as I possibly can. I will also be posting updates in the comments section as the tournament progresses to track how well I am doing with the rest of the sharks.

For your printable bracket for the 2012 NCAA tournament, click here