Fantasy Baseball 2012: Top 25 Third Basemen
Fantasy owners should approach the drafting of third basemen like elite criminals would handle a lucrative bank heist: Get in, get out, no one gets hurt.
That's the best advice for GMs in search of maximizing their return at one of baseball's scarcest positions, and that's factoring in the impending arrival of superstars Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez, who have commandeered the hot corner for their respective teams for essentially the same reason: forced relocation.
Here's a pre-Cabrera, pre-Hanley look at the top 25 third basemen heading into spring training.
No. 25: Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
1 of 26Skinny: Chisenhall may be a season or two away from 20 HRs/75 RBI. For now, he's just a late-round flier pick in AL-only leagues.
By spring training's end, Jed Lowrie, Danny Valencia, Brent Morel or Ian Stewart may own this slot in the countdown.
No. 24: Chris Davis, Orioles
2 of 26Skinny: A devastating hitter in the minors, Davis will have an Alex Gordon-esque breakout in the majors someday. Maybe next year.
No. 23: David Freese, Cardinals
3 of 26Skinny: The World Series hero could be a three-category factor sooner than later. A great spring would boost his stock.
No. 22: Pedro Alvarez, Pirates
4 of 26Skinny: This time last year, Alvarez was one of the unlimited-upside darlings of fantasy land. Can he recapture his 25-HR potential in 2012?
No. 21: Daniel Murphy, Mets
5 of 26Skinny: Murphy, 27, has some intriguing upside in all five categories. For 2012, he's ideal for a team that needs a .300 hitter.
No. 20: Sean Rodriguez, Rays
6 of 26Skinny: Rodriguez could move up a few spots this month, given his 15-15 potential and 2B-SS-3B versatility.
No. 19: Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
7 of 26Skinny: A two-category whirlwind (runs, steals) who needs to prove last year's .296 BA wasn't a fluke.
No. 18: Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays
8 of 26Skinny: A risk-reward asset with 24-HR/70-run potential. "E-5" may end up splitting DH duties with Travis Snider.
No. 17: Chipper Jones, Braves
9 of 26Skinny: A reputation pick who may bear fruit in four categories. A return to .285-or-above would be welcome.
No. 16: Chase Headley, Padres
10 of 26Skinny: For the sake of denial or healthy suppression, let's focus on Headley's 2010 numbers (11 HRs/58 RBI/77 runs/17 steals) with this ranking.
No. 15: Martin Prado, Braves
11 of 26Skinny: A solid contributor in all five categories. Prado's 2012 outlook may yield 75 runs and a .300 average.
No. 14: Mike Moustakas, Royals
12 of 26Skinny: Fantasy owners, enjoy your last season of landing Moustakas late in the draft. He could be the Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton of the hot corner very soon.
No. 13: Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks
13 of 26Skinny: It's OK to be leery of Roberts' four-category breakout last year; but then again, potential 20-20 assets are rare birds.
No. 12: Mark Reynolds, Orioles
14 of 26Skinny: Reynolds may no longer be his 2009 self (44-102-24), but he's still a healthy lock for 35 HRs, 80 runs and 80 RBI.
No. 11: Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
15 of 26Skinny: A-Rod's multi-year decline in runs, steals and average fuels this surprisingly low ranking. An intriguing sleeper pick after Round 11.
No. 10: Kevin Youkilis, Red sox
16 of 26Skinny: The younger Youkilis tops A-Rod's ceiling in runs, HRs, RBI and average. But after that, who knows?
No. 9: Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays
17 of 26Skinny: I'm nervous about bestowing such greatness onto a 22-year-old kid, but Lawrie's dynamic OPS/slugging rates at every level confirm the hype.
No. 8: Aramis Ramirez, Brewers
18 of 26Skinny: The new Brewer landed in the perfect spot to fulfill his potential of 25 HRs, 85 RBI, 85 runs and a .295 average.
No. 7: Michael Young, Rangers
19 of 26Skinny: Young likely won't sniff 213 hits or a .338 average in 2012, but he still looms large in four categories. (And he's no slouch in steals, either.)
No. 6: Pablo Sandoval, Giants
20 of 26Skinny: This sweet-swinging, power-hitting Panda needs to amass 70-75 runs to justify the bold expectations.
No. 5: Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
21 of 26Skinny: We're giving Zimmerman a mulligan on his sluggish 2011 campaign. When healthy, the age-27 star is a four-category stud.
No. 4: David Wright, Mets
22 of 26Skinny: Look for Wright to recapture his dominant form of two years ago (29-103-19), regardless of his trade-deadline fate in the real world.
No. 3: Adrian Beltre, Rangers
23 of 26Skinny: Beltre's monster production of the last two seasons warrants the bold ranking. Mark him down for 29 HRs, 100 RBI and a .307 average.
No. 2: Evan Longoria, Rays
24 of 26Skinny: Perhaps the diciest No. 2 ranking of any player in fantasy land. Here's hoping for an approximate return to Longo's brilliant 2010 campaign (22-104-15-.294).
No. 1: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
25 of 26Skinny: Bautista is a virtual lock for 40 HRs, 100 runs, 100 RBI this season; and with ascending rates in walks and OPS, he may finally notch double-digits steals, too.
Special Mention: Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez
26 of 26Skinny: The Blair Witch Project-esque photo of Cabrera and Ramirez as Marlins teammates in 2007 is fitting, now that both superstars have taken over third base for their respective clubs.
The fantasy payoff for the dual eligibility will come sometime in April.

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