Big Ten Tournament 2012: Predicting Every Game of Tourney

Three teams tied for the Big Ten regular season championship with Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan all splitting the feat. All three were 13-5 in conference play and rank near the top 10 in the polls entering the tournament.

The next three—Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue—were all separated by two games and can easily compete with the top three for a championship in the tournament.

This year's teams are so evenly matched that I believe this will be one of the best Big Ten tournaments in history.

It’s going to take a team with a deep enough bench to endure how physical the games will be, and a good enough team to maximize its possessions.

These are my round-by-round projections, all the way through the championship game.

Thursday's Games

No. 9 Illinois (17-14) vs. No. 8 Iowa (16-15)

In the first matchup of the 2012 tournament, this game will be close for a while, but I think Iowa can pull it out.

Iowa has been hot lately, beating Indiana and Wisconsin near the end of the regular season, and playing at a high level.

Illinois, on the other hand, is a team heading in the wrong direction. After a great start to the season, going 10-0 and making a top 25 appearance, the Illini have lost eight of their last nine games and 11 of the last 13.

I think this team is out of control and doesn’t have a winning mentality right now.

Matt Gatens will Iowa should be able to continue his hot streak, as Illinois will pack it in by halftime.

Prediction: Iowa

No. 12 Penn State (12-19) vs. No. 5 Indiana (24-7)

In the the second matchup of the day, Indiana comes into this game as one of the hottest teams in the nation.

The Hoosiers swept Penn State in both meetings this season and will look to avenge their loss to the Nittany Lions in the first round of last year’s Big Ten tourney.

I don’t think this game will be a big blowout, though.

Penn State will definitely put up a fight, and it can keep this game close due to the play of Tim Frazier. However, Indiana will prevail, as the team has more talent and has been on fire lately.

Prediction: Indiana 

No. 10 Minnesota (18-13) vs. No. 7 Northwestern (18-12)

These two teams will meet in the first game of the night session. Both are on the bubble for the NCAA tournament and desperately need to win this game.

I think the Wildcats will prevail, as they're just too tough.

Minnesota will battle with Ralph Sampson III in the paint, but it won’t have enough to stop John Shurna and Drew Crawford. Shurna and Crawford will have too much scoring power for Minnesota to keep up with.

Prediction: Northwestern

No. 11 Nebraska (12-17) vs. No. 6 Purdue (20-11)

The last game of the day will be Purdue against Big Ten newcomer Nebraska. Nebraska has had a rough first season in its new league, as it tied with Penn State for the worst record in the regular season.

Purdue was on the bubble at one point, but in the last month, it's played its way into the NCAA tournament. The big win in Ann Arbor over Michigan solidified that.

I think Purdue will continue its recent hot streak and will advance into the next round. It's just too talented for Nebraska, and Robbie Hummel will be more than enough of a leader for his team.

Prediction: Purdue

Friday's Games (Quarterfinals)

No. 8 Iowa (17-15) vs. No. 1 Michigan State (24-7)

This game will be the first game of the quarterfinals on Friday. Michigan State is coming off of a two-game losing streak and lost a starter in the last game against Ohio State on Sunday.

Iowa comes into this matchup hot and should put up a bit of a fight.

Michigan State beat Iowa earlier in the conference season, 95-61 in East Lansing, and I think the Spartans should win again on Friday.

Michigan State may be without a starter, but I think Draymond Green will be too much for Iowa to handle. Tom Izzo won’t let his team ride a three-game losing streak into the NCAA tourney.

Prediction: Michigan State

No. 5 Indiana (25-7) vs. No. 4 Wisconsin (23-8)

This game will follow the conclusion of the Iowa/Michigan State game, and this matchup will be the first so-called upset of the tournament.

Wisconsin beat Indiana on January 26th, 57-50, but that score isn’t reflective of the game. I usually don’t blame refs on a loss, but the refs favored the Badgers heavily in that game. Indiana dominated most of the game and deserved to win.

I think getting Wisconsin outside of Madison and on a neutral court will favor the Hoosiers. Indiana is hot and that will help the team.

Wisconsin won’t have enough, and Indiana will win this one. The shooting and pace will be enough to advance the Hoosiers.

Prediction: Indiana

No. 7 Northwestern (19-12) vs. No. 2 Michigan (23-8)

This game will be as good of a matchup as we will see in this tournament. Both teams run a constant motion offense based on back-cuts and using good screens, and both defenses run full-court zone pressure.

Northwestern will try and use this game as a quality win to solidify its spot off the bubble and into the tournament.

Michigan, on the other hand, is coming off of one of its best seasons in Big Ten play in recent memory. The Wolverines tied for the league’s best record for the first time since 1986.

Michigan swept Northwestern in the regular season, and I think Trey Burke will be the deciding factor to lead the Wolverines to the semifinals on Saturday.

Prediction: Michigan

No. 6 Purdue (21-11) vs. No. 3 Ohio State (25-6)

This game will be the last game of both sessions on Friday. I think it will be a battle, as Purdue will have some fans behind it in Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

Purdue played Ohio State tough in Value City Arena a little over a month ago and almost beat the Buckeyes, if not for a late domination from William Buford.

I think the Buckeyes will be too much for Purdue to handle in this matchup, though.

The lack of a big man for the Boilers will hurt them, and Jared Sullinger will dominate the paint. That will make Purdue speed up, and Aaron Craft will force some turnovers.

Prediction: Ohio State

Saturday's Games (Semifinal)

No. 5 Indiana (26-7) vs. No. 1 Michigan State (25-7)

If Indiana can make it this far, this game will be almost a home-court advantage for the Hoosiers.

Bankers Life Fieldhouse is about an hour north of the Indiana campus, and many Hoosier fans live in Indianapolis. I predict this game to be 90 percent Hoosier fans, and that will make it tough for Michigan State.

The Hoosiers just beat Michigan State on February 28th by 15 at home with a ton of help from the crowd.

Indiana just plays so much better in front of a raucous pro-Hoosier crowd, and as they get deeper in the tourney, when bodies are fatigued, it will help fuel them.

I believe the Hoosiers will come out with the same game plan as they did against the Spartans in that February 28th matchup, and once again, I don’t think the Spartans will be able to stop it.

The loss of Dawson for Michigan State will hurt it, as the Spartans will be coming off of a game the day before and not have as much bench depth.

Indiana has one of the deepest benches in the country, and with the crowd behind it, a solid game plan, and not being as beaten up, I think Indiana will advance.

Prediction: Indiana
 

No. 3 Ohio State (26-6) vs. No. 2 Michigan (24-8)

The second of the semifinal matchups will be one of a historic rivalry. Any time Ohio State and Michigan play, the games are heated even in sports other than football.

Both teams split the regular season, with Michigan winning the most recent matchup in Ann Arbor a few weeks ago.

I fully believe this game will come down to the wire, and maybe forced to overtime, but I’m going to have to go with Ohio State to grind this game out and move on to the championship game.

Ohio State has a great point guard in Aaron Craft, and I think he cancel out Michigan’s point guard Trey Burke.

In the other matchups, I think Ohio State is too skilled and knows what it takes to win in this tournament, since it won it last year.

I look for William Buford and DeShaun Thomas to have big days and become matchup problems when it counts with their size advantage.

Prediction: Ohio State

Sunday's Game (Championship Game)

No. 5 Indiana (27-7) vs. No. 3 Ohio State (27-6)

These are the two teams that will meet in the championship game on Sunday.

Indiana comes in hot to the tourney and can expose its matchups en route to this game. Ohio State has been here before and knows what it takes to get back. The Buckeyes have too much talent and rely on great guard play to get them here.

Indiana will come out as tourney champs and will break the split between the two teams from the regular season.

Before everyone thinks I’m crazy for picking the Hoosiers to win, you just have to look at what they’ve done and what they have for this game—the Hoosiers can win just like they did on New Year's Eve.

Ohio State isn’t deep at all. It may only use seven to eight players a game. I think fatigue will settle in as the Buckeyes rely on the big four and only the big four.

Indiana uses up to 10 or 11 guys. It can get Ohio State in foul trouble and turn the pace up to fatigue the Buckeyes even more.

I believe the home crowd will be behind Indiana to push the Hoosiers to the crown. Ohio State won't be able to match Indiana’s explosiveness and manpower in this game.

Ohio State has more talent, but I just don’t think it’s in the cards for the Buckeyes to overcome those obstacles against this Indiana team.

2012 Big Ten Tourney Champs: Indiana