NCAA Tournament 2012: How Top 10 Teams Will Fare in Big Dance

This will not be the year of the Cinderella team, at least when it comes to crowning an NCAA basketball champion. 

No, most of the top teams in the country will make long runs this year, although there are a few exceptions. Let's take a look at the current Associated Press Top 10 to separate the contenders from pretenders. 

1. Kentucky

This is going to be John Calipari's first National Championship team. In normal years, his lack of experienced players would be too much to overcome, but there isn't an experienced team in the country without glaring flaws. 

They have four players over 10 points a game and two right below it. They aren't exclusively dependent upon Anthony Davis. They will cut the nets down. 

Projection: National Champions

2. Syracuse

This is not the Big East's year. The Orangemen are the best team in the conference, but their chances of making a solid run are not good.

They will get the benefit of a No. 1 seeding and therefore will have a few favorable matchups, but don't expect to see this team last as long as their ranking would suggest they should

Projection: Elite 8

3. Kansas

A lot of the same logic in play for Syracuse works for Kansas. They have really struggled against some of the better teams in the country and are not the same team away from home. 

The Jayhawks will put up a few nice wins but will be in for a relatively early exit when the beef of the NCAA schedule hits.

Projection: Sweet 16

4. Duke

This is a charmed team but, eventually, their luck will run out. We've seen too many late-game comebacks and high-scoring shootouts against under-talented teams.

The Austin Rivers-led offense will take the Blue Devils a long way, but they won't run the gauntlet that is the second half of the NCAA tournament. Their lack of inside presence will keep Duke from winning their fifth National Championship.

Projection: Elite 8

5. Michigan State

I have learned one thing over the last 15 years: never bet against Tom Izzo when the Tournament begins. This guy can coach like few others, and the Spartans are doing well against a tough Big Ten. 

The Spartans have the makeup to go on another long run. Don't look for them to do terribly well once the Final Four begins, but we'll be seeing the Spartans for the long haul.

Projection: Final 4

6. North Carolina

This is the closest to a strong, veteran team that the country has to offer. The Tar Heels have a strong veteran frontcourt of Tyler Zeller, John Henson and Harrison Barnes that will take them a long way. 

Unfortunately, they lack the guards needed to win in the Final Four, but we're going to see a lot of this team once the dance begins. 

Projection: Final 4

7. Missouri

This has been a fun team to watch all year. They have the killer guard in Marcus Denmon and the kind of depth that only Kentucky can match. 

In a showdown with the Wildcats, the Tigers would fall short, but they are going to be the second best team in the tournament. The bracket they go in will make the difference between a trip to the semis and the finals, but a long run awaits.

Projection: Final 4

8. Marquette

Most of what was said about Syracuse also applies to the Golden Eagles. The Big East is filled with a lot of average to above-average teams, but few truly good ones. In the same way that they got exposed in 2011, the Big East will have a rough run in 2012. 

They are ranked in the Top 10 so will likely be a three-seed at worst, but the second round generally matches up teams like Marquette with small conference champions. That is where the Golden Eagles' run will come to an end. 

Projection: Second Round

9. Baylor

This is not the same team that started the season 17-0. Getting blown out by Kansas has really exposed the Bears, and that's not the recipe for success at tournament time. 

Perry Jones III, Pierre Jackson, Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller are a nice quartet, but they aren't potent enough to outscore the best teams in the country. They will face the same kind of opponent as Marquette in the second round and will have a similar result.

Projection: Second Round

10. Ohio State

While Jared Sullinger is a dominant big man, this team doesn't have the consistent secondary scoring needed to make a championship run. Too many teams have strong scoring on the outside, and the Buckeyes won't answer that.

Even with Sullinger, this team is 80th in the country in rebounding. Ohio State will stick around for a bit, but won't see the final weekend. 

Projection: Elite 8

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