2012 NFL Draft Projections: 7 Players That Will Be Overdrafted

Each year, numerous players are overdrafted for a number of reasons.

Sometimes a perfectly good player is overdrafted because the relative value of the position he plays makes him more valuable than the players around him. This isn't a knock against the player in any way, but can lead to fans seeing the talent of the players drafted below him and becoming disgruntled.

Other times, a player is overdrafted on potential—the NFL is, fundamentally, a talent acquisition and talent development business. Taking an average player with high upside is always more tantalizing than taking a good player with little upside.The team calling the shots became blind to clear deficiencies or thought they could coach them out of the prospect.

Whatever the reason is, a look back at draft busts and late-round draft steals makes it abundantly clear that the NFL draft isn't an exact science.

Here's a look at seven guys who will be overdrafted this April.

7. Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis)

Dontari Poe was already going to be overdrafted because of the position he plays. The nose tackle position is one of the more underrated positions in football because so much about the 3-4 defense runs through the pivot point.

With the 3-4 as the en vogue defense in the NFL today, elite nose tackles are always at a premium. Teams can get by with just a big body, but a truly great nose can reshape a team.

Because of all that, Poe would've made this list anyway.

Then he went to the combine.

It pleasantly surprised onlookers when Poe put up 44 reps on the bench, but it wowed everyone when he ran a 4.98 in the 40-yard dash. For a guy who is 6'4", 346 pounds, this isn't just freakishly athletic; it is almost a defying of physics.

Yet, coming from Memphis, Poe has a lot of work to do in his game and doesn't have the production one likes in an elite lineman. There's little doubt he could be one of the best, but Poe will have a lot of questions to answer before the draft and after.

How High Could He Go? Top 10, if not Top Five

Where Should He Go? 15 to 20

6. Cordy Glenn (OG/OT, Georgia)

Just look at him.

Cordy Glenn has had a tremendous pre-draft process and has risen his draft stock significantly in the eyes of both media and professional scouts. The "small earth" theory states that the planet only has so many men as big and athletic as guys like Cordy Glenn, so passing on them in the draft can be foolhardy.

However, tape tells a different story about Glenn.

A classic waist-bender, Glenn has troubles staying in an athletic stance (see above) and, at times, seems almost too big for his own good. Nate Solder, now with New England, had some similar concerns expressed about him last winter, but was seen as much more able to play left tackle.

Because of that "small earth" theory, one team will pull the trigger far too early on Glenn, who may be more rough than diamond.

How High Could He Go? Top 20

Where Should He Go? Early second round

5. Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina)

If Captain Picard ever wants to shed his #Facepalm meme, Quinton Coples could take the torch and run with it.

Coples, like many North Carolina football players, is a natural athlete who passes the eyeball test from the moment he walks onto the football field. However, if you're not watching closely, that might be the last time you see him, as Coples is often found out of position and out of plays.

Coples isn't close to what Robert Quinn was when he came out of UNC, and even he was overdrafted in terms of being a raw prospect.

Because of athleticism and potential and in spite of motor and character concerns, Coples will go much higher than he deserves. On account of the position he plays and the lack of elite pass-rushers in this draft, he could go even higher. 

That would be a mistake.

How High Could He Go? Top 10

Where Should He Go? Late first, early second

4. Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor)

Some people see Kendall Wright as the best receiver in the draft, and I don't (necessarily) disagree with that assessment.

However, to be blind to the actual tools of Wright's game is a little foolhardy.

First off, Wright had the second best quarterback in the 2012 draft class throwing him passes in a offense designed to put up huge numbers in a conference (Big 12) that isn't known for NFL-ready defenses.

More importantly, Wright doesn't have the elite tools to be a X receiver in the NFL. That isn't to say that Wright can't have the production of a No. 1 or even be the first guy in most of his quarterback's progressions. However, it is indicative to the way in which he will fit in most offenses. The best comparison is that he's Victor Cruz, not Hakeem Nicks; Wes Welker, not Randy Moss; Nate Burleson, not Calvin Johnson.

Because he is so talented, he will be drafted high; however, the best Z receivers in the NFL often don't need to be drafted that high. So, even if he does put up quality numbers in the NFL, he will never carry an offense by himself.

How High Could He Go? Top 10

Where Should He Go? Late first, early second

3. David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech)

Lots of scouts love David Wilson.

Any time you compare prototypical running back size (5'10", 206 pounds) with elite running back athleticism, you're going to have personnel men drooling.

However, size and speed aren't really the two traits that equate to elite running back talent. In fact, most personnel men will tell you that running backs can compete at any size and with even marginal speed if they have natural running ability.

What is natural running ability?

In short, it is a combination of vision, instincts, agility and balance. Some people have a combination of those traits, but the truly great backs have all four through the roof.

Last year, Mark Ingram had a decent mix of all four of those "natural running" traits, but fell because he wasn't an elite athlete as well. This year, Wilson should fall because he has the athleticism but too little of those four instincts.

Too often, Wilson doesn't make the cuts he should or see the holes great backs would see. Too often, Wilson finds himself tackled in intermediate areas when he should make defenders miss. What he gets, he gets on sheer athleticism, and those types of backs have a ceiling in this league (see: Mathews, Ryan).

How High Could He Go? Top 20

Where He Should Go? Early to mid third round

2. Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State)

Simply put, Vontaze Burfict is a head case.

At one point, there was enough potential in Burfict to ignore the off-the-field character concerns and the on-the-field idiocy. However, showing up to the NFL Combine slow and out-of-shape is a major red flag.

It isn't a question of athletic prowess; everyone has seen the impact Burfict can have on the football field.

It's a question of maturity and Burfict just showed up to the biggest job interview of his life and was completely underwhelming. If you're taking an interview at Goldman Sachs, you don't show up in a ripped Slayer t-shirt and flip flops and ask the CEO if you can light up in his office. It is just as stupid to show up at the combine arrogant and out-of-shape.

Burfict is now, and will likely always be, wasted potential.

How High Could He Go? Top 20

Where Should He Go? Sixth to seventh round

1. Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State)

Look, Justin Blackmon is a fine football player.

Just like Poe, Wright and (to a lesser extent) Glenn and Wilson, I see great things in the NFL future for this former Oklahoma State receiver. However, his position is almost polar opposite to Wright's.

While Wright is an elite prospect at the "second" wide receiver position (Z), Blackmon is a good-to-great prospect at the "lead" receiver position (X). In terms of production, not comparison, Blackmon is a lot more like Anquan Boldin than Larry Fitzgerald. Yes, he can be your top guy, but it's hard to get excited about him being your main threat.

For the X position, Blackmon has average size, average speed, average hands and above-average body control. Nothing about Blackmon screams elite, except production in a pass-heavy offense. Yet, he has been granted elite draft status by almost everyone.

Simply put, if Blackmon is drafted high this April, he could very easily join the ranks of wide receiver reaches over the last decade. If teams wait to where his stock actually meets his potential, he could pay dividends. 

How High Could He Go? Top Three

Where Should He Go? 15 to 20

Michael Schottey is an NFL Associate Editor for Bleacher Report and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America. He has professionally covered both the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions, as well as NFL events like the scouting combine and the Senior Bowl. Follow him on Twitter.