Comparing Each of MLB's Top 25 MLB Prospects to Past or Present Major Leaguers

As the headline suggests, this is a list matching Major League Baseball's 25 best prospects with comparable players from the present and past.

But don't take it too seriously. Comparing prospects to big leaguers is as inevitable as it is imprudent.

Inevitable because we love making predictions, especially about the young and talent-laden. Imprudent because no mold is perfect and most are fatally flawed.

As Sunday school taught us, no two people are alike. Each of us is our own, wonderful snowflake.

In this case, we're looking for snowflakes with similar baseball skill sets, which is about as impossible as it sounds.

Two Things to Note

Two things to note before we start.

1) This top-25 list comes courtesy of Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com. I didn't privilege it for any particular reason. I had to pick somebody. Mayo knows his stuff. Boom, criteria met.

2) Try to avoid cross-referencing the comparisons. Just because I compared one prospect to Amos Otis (I didn't) and another to Roy Oswalt (I did) doesn't mean I think the second is necessarily better than the first.

Some comparisons are more weighted towards anticipated career production. Some are more weighted towards shared mechanical or physical attributes. That's the nature of these things.

In cases where the prediction was a reach, I tried to note that, just as I pointed out when a comp was on the low end of that player's potential.

Good? Good. Good!

Let's start.

25. Travis d’Arnaud, C (Toronto)

Comp: Javy Lopez

Last year, catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud dominated AA pitching to the tune of a .311/.371/.542 slash line and saw his stock explode as a result. Now, he’s the top-rated talent in Toronto’s stacked farm system and a good bet to replace incumbent big-league catcher J.P. Arencibia sometime in the next two seasons.

His numbers in the Eastern League recall those of former Atlanta All-Star Javy Lopez, who posted a .321/.362/.507 in his lone season at Double-A. Like Lopez (6’3”), d’Arnaud (6’2”) is taller and rangier than most backstops. And also like Lopez, he possesses the kind of hitting polish rarely seen from the position.

Lopez developed quicker than d’Arnaud and displayed more year-to-year power in the minor leagues, but d’Arnaud should be the better defender.

24. Drew Pomeranz, SP (Colorado)

Comp: Barry Zito

When the Cleveland Indians spent the fifth pick of the 2010 draft on Ole Miss southpaw Drew Pomeranz, many pegged him for a quick ascent. The SEC star didn’t disappoint, earning a big-league promotion after just 101 minor-league innings.

Now, Pomeranz is in Rocky camp fighting for a permanent roster spot, and looking every bit like the rotation fixture Colorado envisioned when they nabbed him in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade.

To call Pomeranz a future ace would be a stretch, but he looks like a solid contributor that should last a decade or more at baseball’s highest level.

Pomeranz throws harder than Zito, but outside velocity, the pair have plenty in common. Both were high picks out of college that rose quickly through the minor leagues. Both feature vicious 12-6 curves. Both have a small hitch in their deliveries. Both generated lots of whiffs as prospects.

It's worth mentioning that Pomeranz is a bit larger and less over-the-top in his mechanics, but no side-by-side is perfect. If Zito doesn’t suit you, Chuck Finley is a better physical comp.

23. Miguel Sano, 3B (Minnesota)

Comp: Miguel Cabrera

Sano is just 18, so any comparison to an elite big-league hitter is wildly optimistic. Sano, it should be said, has many more tests to pass and a contact rate that needs work.

But the potential, oh, the potential…

In size, skill and defensive ambiguity, Sano reminds many of a young Miguel Cabrera.

The Twins' prospect began as a shortstop, but by year two, he was manning the hot corner. Added size could take him across the diamond or even to the corner outfield.

As a hitter, Sano boasts tremendous bat speed and a swing that plays well to all fields. Those traits helped him hit an astounding 20 home runs in just 66 games at rookie ball last year.

All of that recalls Cabrera, who also drew raves at a young age. Cabrera handled the limelight well—at least the baseball part—and was a World Series champion by age 20.

Minnesota can only hope Sano has a similar constitution.

22. Nolan Arenado, 3B (Colorado)

Comp: Mike Lowell

Nolan Arenado is one tough out.

The 20-year-old hit .298 with 20 home runs at high-A last year, all while striking out just 53 times. He doesn’t project as a slugger, but his pure hitting skills make him a safe bet to bat in the middle of a major-league order.

It’s that combination of skills that makes him so difficult to project. His whiff rate draws comparisons to Placido Polanco, but he has far more extra-base potential.

In that regard, Lowell is a sort of middle ground, representing the upper bound of Arenado’s power but also his floor as a for-average hitter.

And like Arenado, Lowell possessed remarkable bat control, as evidenced by six major-league seasons with a strikeout rate below 13 percent. Arenado figures to fare even better in that department, but Lowell provides a reasonable baseline.

(Another good comp is a better fielding version of the Rangers' Michael Young, via B/R's Zachary Ball.)

21. Tyler Skaggs, SP (Arizona)

Comp: Jon Lester

Tyler Skaggs doesn’t wow you with stuff, but the results speak for themselves. Playing above his age at AA Mobile, Skaggs posted a stellar 4.87 SO:BB ratio and limited batters to just seven hits per nine.

And it isn’t as if his stuff blows. Skaggs sits between 91 and 94 with his fastball and supplements that with a big-breaking curve ball. The key: He controls both well and demonstrates exceptional overall command for a teenage southpaw.

If he threw harder, the comp would be more ambitious, but for now, Jon Lester is a nice benchmark. Both hurlers stand 6’4” and feature similar arsenals.

If Skaggs maintains his statistical trajectory, however, expect him to break higher ground.

20. Archie Bradley, SP (Arizona)

Comp: Felix Hernandez

With just two minor-league innings to his name, Archie Bradley is all projection right now. The projections, however, are pretty darn encouraging.

The big-bodied prep star can reach the upper 90s with his fastball and complements his heat with a sharp power curve. His changeup is a work in progress, but scouts think the Oklahoma quarterback recruit has the athleticism to develop a third “plus” pitch.

At 18, Felix Hernandez had a similar profile: big frame, big fastball, “erratic” changeup. Hernandez transformed “erratic” into dominating and became one of the best pitchers in baseball. If Bradley can do the same, he’s ticketed for the front of a big-league rotation.

19. Wil Myers, RF (Kansas City)

Comp: Tim Salmon

2011 was a humbling year for Wil Myers, but consider the mitigating circumstances. Myers was playing his first professional innings as an outfielder and doing so as the youngest player in the Texas League (AA).

Apart, those are tremendous challenges. Together—combined with a knee injury—they proved overwhelming for the North Carolina native. The result was a .254/.353/.393 slash that represented his first professional season with either a sub-.300 batting average or a sub-.400 OBP.

Myers redeemed some of his stock with an excellent Arizona Fall League campaign and comes into 2012 ready to prove last year’s struggles are behind him. That his average will rise is something of a given, but his power remains a question mark.

If that tool develops as scouts expect it will, Myers fits the right field, middle-of-the-order prototype. Much like Salmon in the late '90s, he can be a 20-30 HR player who takes his walks and contributes 30-plus doubles.

As an added bonus, Myers is a better athlete than Salmon who could be an above-average fielder and baserunner if he stays the course.

18. Taijuan Walker, SP (Seattle)

Comp: Matt Garza

The Felix Hernandez comparisons are inevitable and a bit suspicious. That both Taijuan Walker and Hernandez play in the same organization is a nice bit of trivia, but it isn’t a launch point for comparison.

Walker’s frame and arsenal more closely resembles Cubs ace Matt Garza, another 6’4” power righty. Walker’s arm slot (3/4), velocity (mid-90s fastball) and off-speed stuff (sharp and soft curve) all recall Garza.

One major difference: Walker is easy in his delivery and follow-through, while the more violent Garza tends to fall off towards first base.

17. Bubba Starling, CF (Kansas City)

Comp: B.J. Upton

What we know of Bubba Starling comes from copious scouting reports, most of which paint the Kansas-bred outfielder as an uncommon physical specimen that needs attentive baseball grooming.

If the lessons stick, scouts see the blue chipper settling in as a top-flight major-league center fielder. Starling’s speed and live-bodied athleticism forecast an ability to hit 20-plus home runs, steal 20-plus bases and play sparkling defense.

B.J. Upton has already done all that at a similar height and playing weight. And as a pure athlete, Upton is one of the few baseball players on the planet that compares to Starling.

An even closer physical comparison is Cincinnati center fielder Drew Stubbs, though Royals fans hope Starling can make better contact. A year or two of pro data will go a long way towards determining if that hope holds water.

16. Danny Hultzen, SP (Seattle)

Comp: Joe Saunders

The comparisons between Danny Hultzen and Cliff Lee are as rampant as they are ambitious.

Parallels between their arsenals and mental makeup make sense, but the mechanical differences are too broad to ignore. Lee is upright, closed and compact in his delivery. Hultzen flies open sooner and throws more across his body.

Hence, the comparison to Diamondback hurler Joe Saunders—a fellow 6’3” southpaw who, like Hultzen, pitches with more natural horizontal movement.

Another reason to doubt the Lee comparison is Hultzen’s rather modest velocity. Clocking in the low 90s, Hultzen would need exceptional control and/or deception to match Lee’s prodigious strikeout totals.

Of course, Lee managed just that, but he is a rare specimen. The norm for most lefties in that velocity bracket, again, is Saunders.

If Danny Hultzen front-lines a rotation and/or contends for a Cy Young award, he will have surpassed reasonable expectations. The best college pitcher in the 2011 draft projects more as a solid rotation regular, slotted somewhere between two and four on the pitching depth chart.

Anticipating a bit of criticism here, let me add: This is a low-end comparison. Hultzen projects to be a rich man's Saunders with better strikeouts totals and a longer prime.

15. Jacob Turner, SP (Detroit)

Comp: Carl Pavano

Tigers fans won’t like this comparison, but we forget how good Pavano was before arm injuries altered his trajectory.

As a prospect, he ran his fastball into the mid-90s and generated enviable ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratios. The latter belied his conventional throwing mechanics, but the 6’5” righty maintained similar outputs upon promotion.

Turner profiles the same way—a taller pitcher with an easy, over-the-top delivery and encouraging batted-ball ratios. If he can avoid injury, Turner should be a top-of-the-rotation arm.

14. Devin Mesoraco, C (Cincinnati)

Comp: Geovany Soto

Devin Mesoraco needn’t look far to find a catcher of similar build and skill.

Just across the division, Cubs starter Geovany Soto sports identical dimensions and—on his good days—a power-average combination that many forecast for Mesoraco.

Mesoraco is the better athlete, welcoming the assumption that he’ll have a longer shelf life as a top player. Think Soto with a better pedigree and, eventually, more consistent production.

13. Manny Banuelos, SP (New York Yankees)

Comp: Gio Gonzalez

Manny Banuelos’ size alone voids most comparisons. There aren’t many lefties in the 6' range, much less ones that can throw in the mid-90s.

Mix in his equal propensity to miss both bats and strike zones, and the pool of comps grows even smaller.

Process of elimination brings us to Gio Gonzalez, one of few active pitchers with similar dimensions and makeup.

Gonzalez’s big-league career maps a positive, yet plausible path for Banuelos. The newly acquired Washington National has seen his ERA drop in each of four seasons and, in the process, brought his flashing-red-warning-sign of a walk rate into more comfortable territory. There’s still work to do, but at least Gonzalez demonstrates positive trends.

If Banuelos can do the same, he should stick near the front end of New York’s rotation.

12. Jesus Montero, C (Seattle)

Comp: Mike Piazza

Jesus Montero draws a lot of comparisons for a guy who is really hard to compare.

Montero invites the appraisals with his prodigious hitting talent, a skill so superior that it almost demands we invoke names like Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera in order to do it justice.

Problem is Montero purports to be a catcher, which would augur for a different career path than the aforementioned two.

As this nifty piece at MLBProspectWatch.com explains, limiting our purview to catchers eliminates almost all reasonable comparisons. Rare is the catcher that can match Montero’s height (6’3”) and weight (235 lbs.). The few catchers with those dimensions—Joe Mauer, Brian McCann and Matt Wieters—all hit left-handed.

The weight is particularly vexing. Most players pushing 240 end up in the corner outfield. But the Mariners want Montero behind the plate, which makes mapping him near impossible. If he packs on weight with age, he could be one of the biggest everyday catchers in recent memory.

Our only out is to disregard about 30 lbs. and glom onto the only large-ish, right-handed catcher with Montero’s hitting chops—Mike Piazza.

And if Montero sticks behind the plate, it will be because, like Piazza, he learns to manage his deficiencies and proves too valuable as a hitter to move.

11. Gerrit Cole, SP (Pittsburgh)

Comp: Stephen Strasburg

Don’t go crazy with this comp. Gerrit Cole isn’t the next coming of Stephen Strasburg—he’s Stephen Strasburg lite.

Cole, a UCLA product, should be quick to the big leagues, but not as quick as Strasburg.

With a fastball that sits comfortably in the upper 90s, Cole throws exceptionally hard, but not as hard as Strasburg.

Cole demonstrates great control for a power arm, but not as much as Strasburg.

Cole’s actual measurements are about the only thing that can measure up to Strasburg. Both stand 6’4” and weigh in at 220.

Perhaps the biggest thing separating the two is track record. Strasburg dominated the college ranks during his time at San Diego State, while Cole looked downright normal on occasion.

Scouts believe his stuff will prevail, and if it does, he’s got ace potential. Few pitchers have the arsenal to elicit Strasburg comparisons, even if that means falling a bit short.

10. Dylan Bundy, SP (Baltimore)

Comp: Roy Oswalt

Anything short of full-fledged ace-dom would be a disappointment for the best high-school pitcher in the 2011 draft.

Perhaps that’s an unfair burden to place on 18-year-old Dylan Bundy, but the kid is too damn good to deny it. When you throw an easy 98 with secondary pitches developed well beyond your years, there’s no stopping the runaway freight train of high hopes.

At 6’1” and an already-filled-out 200 lbs., Bundy doesn’t fit the typical power-pitcher mold. Much like the similarly undersized Roy Oswalt, the Oklahoma prep star generates tremendous power from his lower half.

Between the two, Bundy is the harder thrower. In the scouting paradigm, that places his ceiling even higher than the former Houston No. 1.

Eighteen years old. Hasn’t pitched a professional inning. Higher ceiling than Roy Oswalt.

Let that percolate.

…

Got it?

Alright, now pick your jaw up off the ground and click to the next slide.

9. Trevor Bauer, SP (Arizona)

Comp: Tim Lincecum

Some comps are too ubiquitous to ignore.

Trevor Bauer and Tim Lincecum have been compared so often it makes any other proposed match seem contrived and/or contrarian.

So, I will surrender to popular opinion and acknowledge that Lincecum and Bauer share a bounty in common.

The cross-section of their Venn diagram includes: successful Pac-10 pitcher, unorthodox mechanics, nutso training regimen and really, really good at baseball.

Bauer is a long shot to match Lincecum’s success, but only because anyone is. Bauer’s good, polished and ready to prove it at the big-league level as early as this year.

And like Lincecum, Bauer has the personality to match his offbeat pitching style. The UCLA product purports to have 19 different pitches, plays Hacky Sack before starts and talks about baseball like a mad scientist operating on himself.

He should be a great quote, and an even better pitcher.

8. Jameson Taillon, SP (Pittsburgh)

Comp: Josh Johnson

The rest of this country has this hang-up about Texas.

In part, this is Texas’ fault. After years spent convincing us—on T-shirts, bumper stickers and the like—that they were large, different and not to be messed with, we’ve started to believe that they are, well, large, different and not to be messed with.

In sports, this perceived difference causes us to make special designations for players from Texas. He isn’t a running back, he’s a Texas running back—as if that means anything in a state so large and diverse.

Baseball pundits do the same, liberally applying the term “Texas gunslinger” to anyone in the Lone Star State with a big fastball. Never mind that most of today’s prep arms come of age in groomed suburbs and are well-versed in the complex mechanics of throwing a baseball.

They are gunslingers, all of ‘em. That’s the Texas way.

It should come as no surprise then that 20-year-old Jameson Taillon draws frequent comparisons to fellow Texan Josh Beckett.

And though they both throw hard and hail from the Houston area, Taillon’s pitching style tacks closer to that of Marlins ace Josh Johnson.

Like Johnson, Taillon stands about 6’7” and throws with great downward tilt. The Pirates farmhand figures to generate lots of ground balls, something Johnson has long done well.

Or, we could stick Taillon in a fringed leather vest and call him John Wayne. Whichever the people prefer.

7. Jurickson Profar, SS (Texas)

Comp: Asdrubal Cabrera

Jurickson Profar is a difficult comp because he’s an average-sized short stop that plays big.

That is to say Profar possesses plus extra-base potential, but lacks the blazing foot speed of a Jose Reyes or Elvis Andrus.

With the numbers Profar posted as an 18-year-old at Single A (.286/.390/.493), Hanley Ramirez comparisons seem apt. Then again, Ramirez is 6’3” to Profar’s 5’11”, which makes that side-by-side seem a bit apples-and-oranges.

All of that deliberation led me to Asdrubal Cabrera, with some qualifiers.

First, Profar is a better athlete and prospect than Cabrera ever was.

Second, Profar should be a much better defender.

Third, Profar should outperform Cabrera long-term.

But, when I step back and look at Cabrera’s 2011 season in isolation, I see a statistical profile that matches Profar’s skill set.

A .273 average, 25 home runs and 17 steals from an average-sized, switch-hitting short stop seems just about right. Adjust up a bit for average and down a bit for power, but all in all, it feels pretty spot-on.

If we were to reword this comp, it would say: Asdrubal Cabrera will never match or surpass his 2011 production. Jurickson Profar can be 2011 Asdrubal Cabrera every year for a long time. 

6. Manny Machado, SS (Baltimore)

Comp: Hanley Ramirez

A tall, rangy shortstop born to Dominican parents and raised in Miami—it must be Alex Rodriguez!

What’s that?

He wears the No. 3? Oh man, that is so Alex Rodriguez.

Inevitable comparisons are often the worst kind of comparisons, and I get bad vibes from the Manny Machado-as-Alex Rodriguez testimonials.

There are certainly substantive similarities (height, swing) and ancillary coincidences (shared heritage, hometown), but Machado hasn’t done enough to earn a serious Rodriguez comp.

A-Rod is one of the greatest right-handed hitters ever. After the Mariners drafted him first overall in 1993, he buzzed through the minor leagues like it was t-ball.

Machado has a pedestrian .337 OBP through his first 110 professional games.

How can I put those two players on the same plane?

I still see Machado as an All-Star shortstop with a .300 batting average and 20-plus-home-run ability. Like Hanley Ramirez, he plays big for that position, but unlike Hanley, I see him controlling his weight well enough to stick up the middle.

5. Shelby Miller, SP (St. Louis)

Comp: Matt Cain

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus hinted at this comp back in 2010, and it still feels right.

Shelby Miller is a classic right-handed strikeout artist, working with a hard fastball and an impressive, but still developing, curve ball.

Like Cain, he tends to miss up in the zone, resulting in a less-than-ideal GO-AO ratio. Also like Cain, that foreboding metric hasn’t come back to bite him. Miller allowed just four long balls in 139.2 innings last year.

After a dominant 2011 campaign split between high-A and AA, Miller doesn’t have much left to prove. Barring a major setback, he and his prodigious heat should be in St. Louis sometime this year.

4. Julio Teheran, SP (Atlanta)

Comp: Zack Greinke

When Julio Teheran fills out, he figures to look and pitch a lot like Zack Greinke—6’2”, 190 lbs., armed with a live fastball he can spot for strikes on both sides of the plate.

But before continuing with this comp, we must issue a disclaimer: There is a major difference in their arsenal.

Greinke tends more towards fastball-curve, with a changeup thrown in for balance. Teheran looks like a fastball-change guy, with his curve as triage on days when the change-up won’t fade.

With both, though, the fastball serves as foundation. Wiry right-handers that can spot a mid-90s fastball are a rare breed, and those like Greinke have the trophy case to prove it.

3. Mike Trout, CF (Los Angeles Angels)

Comp: Cesar Cedeño

When you find a good comp, don’t fight it.

Don’t avoid it as a means of validating your own intelligence. If the analysis makes sense, embrace it.

That’s where I find myself after reading this wonderful piece by MLBProspectWatch.com founder Jeff Moore on Mike Trout’s potential comparables.

Moore sees Trout as a high-average base-stealer who should play premium defense well into his prime.

Cesar Cedeño did all of the above with aplomb.

Moore also acknowledges Trout’s power potential—a tool that should have him pushing 20-plus home runs at career apexes, but isn’t prominent enough to justify a career spent in the 25-35 range.

Cedeño topped 20 home runs three times early in his career before leveling off in the teens.

One could make more ambitious predictions for Trout, but remember that Cedeño was a very good player. His 52.2 career WAR puts him right on the cusp of Cooperstown—a career Angels fans should embrace if it is indeed Trout’s destiny.

2. Bryce Harper, RF (Washington)

Comp: Josh Hamilton

However his career unfolds, Bryce Harper has no precedent.

Given the changes in media and sport culture, one cannot compare the pressure he faces as a 19-year-old baseball player to anything anyone playing the game at his age has ever experienced.

Does that make sense?

He is the hype machine on overdrive, so much so that it makes sober assessment near impossible.

Any good prospect evaluation combines statistical analysis and eyewitness evaluation. And when it comes to Harper, I’m not sure we can trust any of the latter—not with so many eyes affixed to his every move, each pair straining to develop some sage, novel perspective.

We know he’s a really, really good left-handed-hitting outfielder with exceptional physical gifts. We know that his performance last year as an 18-year-old in A and AA was about as good a debut season as we’ve seen in the past decade of professional baseball.

So almost by default, I go back to the last left-handed hitting outfielder to put up numbers even remotely close to Harper’s: Josh Hamilton.

When he was 19, Hamilton played a full season at Single-A and posted a .302/.348/.476 slash. Harper’s line at the same level was a face-melting .318/.423/.554.

The younger Harper was better, but at least Hamilton is in his zip code.

However, at this point, the conversation devolves into a ramble about their many differences.

Hamilton has a smoother swing that produces great contact and a bit less power. Harper takes violent cuts and displays more natural pop.  Harper has the better arm. Hamilton is an inch taller. Hamilton didn’t make the bigs until 26 because of drug addiction. Harper could be there before 20.

But, if we’re looking for some sense of what Bryce Harper could do in a full season of big-league baseball, Hamilton provides a template. Not a mirror, mind you, but a template.

1. Matt Moore, SP (Tampa Bay)

Comp:  Steve Carlton

See, this is why I love-hate prospect comparisons.

Realistically, what are the chances Matt Moore comes within jock-sniffing distance of Steve Carlton? Five percent? One percent? One-fifth of one percent?

Steve Carlton could be the greatest left-handed pitcher ever.

Saying a 22-year-old could be the greatest left-handed pitcher ever is like shooting analysis in the head.

And yet a more sober comparison like Erik Bedard feels just as unfair. I can’t be so cold and calculating, at least not yet—and not with Matt Moore.

The Matt Moore we know is perfect. He is the shadowy specter that dominated the eventual AL champs in Game 1 of a playoff series. He is a collection of ridiculous counting statistics, the man that led the minor league in strikeouts each of the past two seasons. He is cut from Cy Young stone, embossed in Cooperstown bronze.

If Matt Moore has flaws, we haven’t seen them. And we don’t want to believe they exist.

All of which nudges us back to the Moore-as-Carlton possibility—a comparison with some substance.

Carlton isn’t some random selection from the magic of hat of great lefties. He and Moore share similar whiff rates, arm action and breaking balls. Run their deliveries through a side-by-side simulcast, and the similarities would be apparent.

And we want so badly to see the similarities because they feed a budding awareness that we are at the genesis of something great.