Separating Pretenders from Contenders in the NBA's Second Half

Whether it was because of a red-hot start or the emergence of a new star, some teams have generated excitement from their fans. They want to believe their team can win it all. But are those teams contenders or pretenders?

Those teams don't include the Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat or Oklahoma City Thunder, who, by virtue of their success this year and their visits to the conference finals or beyond last year with essentially the same teams, are universally considered contenders.

After that it's a bit of a crap-shoot. Here's a list of 10 teams on the next level.

Memphis Grizzlies

To call the Memphis Grizzlies a "streaky" team would be an understatement. They opened up the season losing six of their first nine. That included a three-game losing streak. 

They followed that up winning seven straight.

Then they lost four straight and seven of nine overall.

After that they won seven of nine.

The Griz are the epitome of a hot and cold team, and hot and cold teams don't survive in the postseason. Memphis is capable of playing great, but it is inconsistent.

The Grizzlies could get hot and challenge a team in the first round, but that's not going to be sustained. Sooner or later they'll get cold.

Determination: Pretender

Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers have Derek Fisher as their starting point guard. Based on data from hoopsstats.com, which has all the point guards ranked based on efficiency, Fisher is the 46th-"best" point guard in the league.

He may have been the worst point guard to ever win a ring two years ago, and he's nowhere near that level now. Fisher will not win a sixth ring as a starting point guard.

For now, the Lakers are nothing but pretenders, and that won't change unless they make a move.

Determination: Pretender

Dallas Mavericks

They are the defending NBA champions. They started off this year looking a little slow, but since Dirk Nowitzki took some time off to get his legs under him, he and the Mavs have been going strong.

They lost Tyson Chandler, and many believed their defense would suffer, but their defense has actually improved from last season. Their defensive rating is now the third-best in the NBA and the best in the Western Conference.

They are giving up a field-goal percentage of just 40.5 in February.

I feel the need to repeat this too: They are the defending NBA champions. Some are skeptical, but they were probably skeptical last year too.

Determination: Contender

Los Angeles Clippers

The Los Angeles Clippers have the right mix of talent to win a championship, but they haven't had much experience playing together.

Also, their star players lack playoff experience. Blake Griffin has never been in the postseason, and Chris Paul has never made it past the second round of the playoffs.

They simply lack the experience needed to win it all. Even the Miami Heat weren't able to get a title their first year together.

Recently, the 2008 Boston Celtics were the only team to win a ring their first year together. It was a unique accomplishment, but the team's components (Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen) had individually made deep runs before.

I just don't see this happening with the Clippers. There's too much learning to do. I like this team, and it will definitely be a contender next season.

Determination: Pretender

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs' core group of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker has won three championships together. They know what it takes to be successful in the postseason.

Last year they were the best team in the Western Conference during the regular season but were worn down by the time the postseason rolled around.

This year, Gregg Popovich is managing the team better. He's not afraid to sit players for a game now and then, even if it costs them a win. He would rather lose a regular-season game than a postseason series, and who wouldn't?

They have a real chance to beat the Thunder in a seven-game series. They have the coaching, the stars, the depth and the experience.

Determination: Contender

New York Knicks

Linsanity has had its moments, but now it's time to return to the real world of the NBA. There's now enough film on Jeremy Lin to know how to slow him down. He's not in the running for MVP,  he's not one of the best point guards in the NBA and he's not Derrick Rose.

He is, on the other hand, a huge upgrade over Iman Shumpert and is a legitimate starting point guard in the NBA.

The Knicks also have arguably the NBA's best frontcourt in Tyson Chandler, Amar'e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony. The Knicks have real offensive talents and are coming together and improving.

I think they could give the Miami Heat a run for their money in a seven-game series and would have about a 10 percent chance of toppling the Big Three. Much of that would depend on how well Lin adjusts to the way that the Heat defended him in their game before the All-Star break.

On the other hand, they don't match up well with the Bulls. Lin is a defensive liability that Rose would take advantage of. Stoudemire doesn't have the length to limit Carlos Boozer. Joakim Noah is the equal to Chandler in rebounding and intensity. Luol Deng is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA and could neutralize Anthony.

The Knicks having a slight chance of getting to the conference finals, but I don't see them getting past the Heat and Bulls.

Determination: Pretender

Atlanta Hawks

It's been an up-and-down season for the Atlanta Hawks. They started off hot, but then they lost arguably their best player, Al Horford. Everyone wrote them off, but the Hawks responded by winning six of their first seven without Horford.

Lately, however, the Hawks have been playing like their wings got clipped, going 4-8 over their last 12 games. There's a difference between gutting out a performance through a handful of games and sustaining that for the bulk of the season.

Their recent streak of poor play includes double-digit losses to the Heat and Bulls. With Horford they had a slim chance of getting past one of them in a seven-game series, but without him, they have none. 

Determination: Pretender

Orlando Magic

This team is almost impossible to project because we have no idea who is going to be on the roster on March 2nd.

What we do know is the current roster can't win a championship. We've seen this movie before. It's called "Dwight Howard and a Bevy of Three-Point Shooters Lose in the Playoffs."

Sooner or later you're going to play a team that stops your three-point shooting, and then what you have is an offense that consists of Dwight Howard and a bunch of guys who can't score.

Never was that more apparent than last year, when Howard averaged 27 points and 15.5 rebounds per game in the postseason, only to see the Magic get knocked out by the Hawks in the first round.

Modern basketball analysts look at the "long two" with disdain. However, if you look at the teams that win rings, they all have players that are able to sink the mid-range jumper with a great deal of consistency. You can't ignore the area between the paint and the three-point line and think that teams can't shut you down.

Yes, those shots are less efficient by themselves, but you can't look at it that way. Having a solid mid-range game opens up the court for dunks and threes.

Stan Van Gundy's insistence on making his system work is going to cost the Magic another series and, inevitably, Dwight Howard.

Determination: Pretender

Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers started off the season red-hot, blowing apart everyone in their path. However, most of that damage was done against bad teams in the friendly confines of the Wells Fargo Center.

They entered the All-Star break on a five-game losing streak. Four of those losses were on the road; the other came against the Mavericks at home.

They have a record of 6-11 against teams with winning records.

No team has ever won a championship with a losing record against winning teams. Philadelphia won't be the first.

Determination: Pretender

Indiana Pacers

While some people are aware that the Pacers are improved, they are still very much below the radar. At 21-12, they have the third-best record in the Eastern Conference and the sixth-best overall.

They also have a winning record on the road and are 6-8 against teams with winning records, but eight of those games have been on the road. In fact, most of their games have been on the road, as only the Bulls in the Eastern Conference have played more road games than the Pacers.

The Pacers have a very real chance of landing the third seed in the postseason.

They gave the Bulls a rough series last season, and they beat them in Chicago last month. After the Heat, the Pacers are probably the most likely team to knock the Bulls out of the playoffs.

In the Pacers' perfect scenario, they would face the Bulls in the second round, while the Knicks play the Heat. If both teams pull off the miracle, the Pacers would host the Knicks in the Eastern Conference finals, and I like Indiana in that hypothetical series.

If they were to make it to the NBA Finals, they have a defense that would present problems to the Thunder. They are seventh in the NBA in opponents' effective field-goal percentage, and the Thunder rely on their backcourt and small forward for scoring.

Then, on top of all that, the Pacers have $15 million they can bring to the party. If they use that, which Larry Bird says he's looking to do, the Pacers could get even better. 

They're a sleeper pick, but if anyone other than Chicago and Miami has a shot, it's the Pacers. 

Determination: Contender