2012 NFL Mock Draft: First-Round Studs Sure to Shine Immediately

An NFL rookies' chances to have an early impact is based on their TOES. Not like eenie, meenie, miney moe, it's my acronym for talent, opportunity, effort and scheme. If those things align correctly, you have a recipe for a delicious rookie season.

They must possess the talent, but they must also have the appropriate talent around them to succeed. They must have the opportunity to play early. A player can be ultra-talented, but if he's buried on the depth chart, we'll never know how good he can be.

He must give good effort in practice and in games; without that, the talent and opportunity will be wasted. 

Finally, the scheme must fit the player's skill set. Football is as much about system as any sport in the world. The right system will make or break most players.

According to my projections, there are a few players with their TOES in the right place. Here is a spotlight on those players, as well as a complete first round mock draft: 

1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Luck would be spotlighted if he had the TALENT around him, but the Colts won't have many weapons for him.

2. Cleveland Browns: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor (via trade with St. Louis)

The Browns will move up to grab RG3, but fans will have to wait for his impact. RG3 is still raw, so he may not get the OPPORTUNITY.

3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT, USC

Kalil is the best offensive lineman in the draft, but he isn't quite talented enough to explode in his first year. He will be solid, but early on, he lacks the TALENT to shine.

4. St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Don't let the 40-yard dash time fool you, Blackmon is a player. If teams underestimate him, he will have an impact very similar to the one Anwuan Boldin had when he was drafted by the Arizona Cardinals in 2003.

They are very similar in stature, both at 6'1" and over 210 pounds. There are also concerns about their speed. Boldin recorded a 4.75 40-time at the NFL's scouting combine and subsequently dropped into the second round, 54th overall.

Now, many are worried Blackmon won't burn up the track when he works out for teams.

The 40 has proved a less and less useful barometer for evaluating receivers. Wideouts very rarely get an opportunity to run a straight line in the NFL. The 40 only tells us how fast a receiver will be if he gets into a sprint situation, but he has to have a number of other skills to facilitate that.

Talent

Blackmon has the other skills that are required: he has great hands, meets the ball at its highest point, runs decent routes and, on the field, shows no problems getting separation from defenders.

Opportunity

In St. Louis, the team is void of a top-notch receiver. Blackmon could immediately step in as the team's top option. There is the opportunity.

Effort

He has had a few off-field issues, but on the field he genuinely gives good effort and plays with a chip on his shoulder.

Scheme

Though Jeff Fisher has genuinely employed run-focused offenses, possession receivers have flourished in his offenses as well. Derrick Mason had four consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons, went to two Pro Bowls, and was a First Team All-Pro as the No. 1 receiver for Fisher's Titans.

Blackmon will do the same, and the impact will start from Day 1.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

Claiborne's impact will be seen immediately, but the Bucs have a long way to go from a TALENT standpoint. It will be difficult to shine through the team's issues.

6. Washington Redskins: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

Some would argue EFFORT could be an issue for Kirkpatrick, as he is far too talented to not have distinguished himself more at Alabama.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

Brockers has upside as a pass-rusher but I don't believe his TALENT is developed enough to have a significant impact in Year 1.

8. Carolina Panthers: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

Quinton Coples is the type of player that will be better in the NFL than he was in college. That said, he was pretty good at North Carolina as well.

Coples' stock fell a bit during the season as his sack total dropped from 10 his junior year to 7.5 as a senior. Much of this was due to seeing far more double teams, with DT Marvin Austin having moved on to the NFL.

If Coples lands in Carolina, his TOES are setup perfectly

Talent

Coples has elite pass-rushing skills. His combination of size (6'6", 280 pounds), speed and athleticism makes you think of another Tar Heel alum: Julius Peppers.

He has the versatility and bulk to play inside or outside, and if Charles Johnson comes back healthy for the Panthers, they will have a nasty combination of pass-rushers with him and Coples.

Opportunity

With or without Johnson, Coples figures to play right away. The Panthers defense needs a playmaker on defense, though the injuries to Johnson and middle linebacker Jon Beason certainly didn't help.

Effort

Coples goes all out and has a great motor. He will also be motivated by many who have downgraded this past year.

Scheme

Once Coples shows the ability to move to different spots on the defensive line, the scheme will be catered to him. His versatility makes it work for him, regardless of the situation.

9. Miami Dolphins: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

Reiff is a LT that I see as more as a RT in the NFL. If he is chosen here, he will definitely play on the right side. Though he has some skills, TALENT keeps him from shining immediately.

10. Buffalo Bills: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

Upshaw is a sold player, but he will notice an overall dip in TALENT around him. That prevents him from making a bigger immediate impact.

11. Seattle Seahawks: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Floyd is a scary pick for me. I think he has the most physical ability of any receiver, but EFFORT is a concern.

12. Kansas City Chiefs: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

Of all the players in the draft, Richardson is the player most ready to have an impact in Year 1. His north-south style and durable body make him a solid option to play a major role early on.

Richardson's stellar collegiate career culminated with 1,679 yards rushing, 21 TDs and a ational championship. If he goes here, he is setup perfectly to excel in his rookie season.

Talent

It's obvious. Even though he lacks big time top-end speed, he has great vision, power and he's much shiftier than he's given credit for.

Opportunity

Whether Jamaal Charles returns from injury 100 percent or not, Richardson will still get his touches. Most teams would prefer to use two backs, and the Chiefs would definitely seem to benefit from that with Charles coming off a major knee injury.

Effort

Never a question with Richardson—he will always bring it.

Scheme

It's perfect for him, the Chiefs run the ball a ton and that won't change under Romeo Crennel. Richardson's power running style is a perfect match with Charles' speed, or as a feature back.

13. Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

Martin is a nice tackle prospect, but he doesn't have the TALENT to kill it from Day 1.

14. Dallas Cowboys: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

Jenkins is as talented as any player in this draft, but he may not immediately get the OPPORTUNITY to shine. If all things are positive, Jenkins will be a Pro Bowler, just not in his rookie season.

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

With Jeffery's size and ability, he should be the best receiver far and away. He has speed concerns like Blackmon, but conditioning issues have me questioning his EFFORT.

16. New York Jets: Nick Perry, OLB, USC

Perry is a smart choice for the Jets, who need a pass-rusher. And the Jets defense is a bit overrated. Perry won't have the TALENT on the defensive line to shine early.

17. Cincinnati Bengals: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

Miller is the best all-purpose back in the draft, but to see Miller at his best he'll need to be used as a receiver out of the backfield. The Bengals don't throw to the backs much, however, and this limits his OPPORTUNITY.

18. San Diego Chargers: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

Adams is a solid and smart pick here for the Chargers, but he lacks the TALENT to have an impact in Year 1.

19. Chicago Bears: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Jay Cutler wants the Bears to grab a big receiver as he indicated on ESPN Radio's Waddle and Silvy. He was asked about his preference in potential receivers:

"

Anyone really over 6-2 at this point is going to look good.

"

Well Wright is not over 6'2", but he'd be a perfect complement to the big receiver Cutler covets. He averaged 15.4 yards per reception in his senior year, so he has big-play ability.

Talent

Yes, Wright is blazing fast, but he is also a good route-runner. The fact that he's 5'10" isn't a major factor if he can be used as a deep threat.

Opportunity

The deep threat could be his role if the Bears are successful in luring a big receiver through free agency. The Bears have pure speed receivers, but they don’t have solid receivers with great speed. 

That is what Wright is. He's already a better receiver than Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, who is recovering from a serious back injury.

Effort

Wright displayed great effort as he was a part of a great team environment at Baylor. There is no reason to believe that won't continue.

Scheme

The Bears' offensive approach is still unveiled with Mike Tice taking over as offensive coordinator. His Vikings teams threw the ball a ton, and Wright's speed is a great weapon to balance the Bears' potential attack.

20. Tennessee Titans: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

Ingram is an athletic freak but I'm not sure any team knows whether he's a defensive end, an ultra-athletic tackle or an outside linebacker. Therefore, SCHEME could definitely be a problem

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Jayron Hosley, CB, Virginia Tech

The Bengals need insurance at corner and Hosley is a smart choice. But he doesn't have the TALENT to shine as a rookie.

22. St. Louis Rams: David DeCastro, G, Stanford

DeCastro is the best guard available in a weak class at the position. He will be a solid pro, but he doesn't have the TALENT to star as a rookie.

23. Detroit Lions: Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia

Minnifield is a superb athlete and the smart pick for the Lions, who need help in the secondary. Unfortunately, the Lions have more than one hole on defense, so Minnifield needs more TALENT around him.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Ronnell Lewis, LB, Oklahoma

Lewis can rush the passer, but he won't get the OPPORTUNITY to have a major impact just yet with James Harrison there.

25. Denver Broncos: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

I love Poe here, but the Broncos may look elsewhere. Poe looks like a certain 2-technique player, but the Broncos don't play that SCHEME exclusively.

26. Houston Texans: Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers 

The only thing that will keep Sanu from having an early impact is OPPORTUNITY. He is my favorite receiver in the draft.

27. New England Patriots: Stephen Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

Gilmore is a perfect pick for the Patriots, but a secondary in transition creates a TALENT issue.

28. Green Bay Packers: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

I believe the Packers will lose center Scott Wells, as they choose to franchise Jermichael Finley. Konz is the best center in the draft, but he doesn't have the TALENT to make a huge impact as a rookie.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State

Burfict to Baltimore may be the best fit of any player in the first round, but he will learn under the tutelage of Ray Lewis. Thus, his OPPORTUNITY for immediate impact will be limited.

30. San Francisco 49ers: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska

The Niners figure to lose one of their corners, so Dennard makes sense, but he's not a top-flight corner. He will likely be a nickel corner at best in his career. He doesn't have the TALENT to make a major impact early.

31. New England Patriots: Whitney Mercilus, OLB/DE, Illinois

I'm right on the fence with Mercilus, because I believe he does have the ability to have an early impact, but because Andre Carter and or Mark Anderson could return, the OPPORTUNITY may not be there.

32. New York Giants: Chris Polk, RB, Washington

The Giants need Polk as insurance behind their oft-injured and inconsistent backfield. Still, if Jacobs and Bradshaw have good seasons and stay healthy, Polk won't get the OPPORTUNITY.