College Basketball Bubble Watch Part III 2/18

Another week down, and another week closer to Selection Sunday.

Last week we saw plenty of teams move up the ladder one way or another, and this week was no different.

Which teams helped themselves this week? And which may have doomed their fate? Here is this week's College Basketball bubble watch right here on Bleacher Report.

Conference Leaders

As usual, we will be using each teams current conference leader as its automatic representative right now.

In the result of a tie, we will use the team with the better record.

Stony Brook (America East)

Temple (A-10)

North Carolina (ACC)

Belmont (A-Sun)

Missouri (Big 12)

Syracuse (Big East)

Weber State (Big Sky)

UNC- Asheville (Big South)

Michigan State (Big Ten)

Long Beach State (Big West)

Drexel (CAA)

Southern Miss. (C-USA)

Valparaiso (Horizon)

Harvard (Ivy)

Iona (MAAC)

Akron (MAC)

Savanah State (MEAC)

Wichita State (MVC)

New Mexico (MWC)

LIU Brooklyn (NEC)

Murray State (OVC)

California (Pac 12)

Kentucky (SEC)

Davidson (Southern)

Texas-Arlington (Southland)

Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

Oral Roberts (Summit)

Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt)

St. Mary's (WCC)

Nevada (WAC)

Teams in Good Shape

Here is the list of teams not on top of their conference but without much to worry about if today was Selection Sunday. 

Saint Louis (A-10)

Duke (ACC)

Florida State (ACC)

Virginia (ACC)

Marquette (Big East)

Notre Dame (Big East)

Georgetown (Big East)

Louisville (Big East)

Ohio State (Big Ten)

Michigan (Big Ten)

Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Indiana (Big Ten)

Kansas (Big 12)

Baylor (Big 12)

Memphis (C-USA)

Creighton (MVC)

San Diego State (MWC)

UNLV (MWC)

Florida (SEC)

Vanderbilt (SEC)

Gonzaga (WCC)

With St. Louis and Memphis moving into this category, and New Mexico and Drexel taking over the conference leads the bubble is beginning to shrink. With 21 teams on this list plus the 31 conference champions, that means just 16 spots remain for bubble teams.

Xavier 17-9 (8-4)

RPI: 52

SOS: 52

Xavier did itself a huge favor and held on to beat Dayton in overtime on Saturday. The win not only keeps Xavier in the mix right now, but it also basically eliminates the Flyers slim chances of getting back on the bubble.

If they can follow that up with a win at UMass, Xavier will be feeling much better about itself at 9-4 in league play.

The Vanderbilt, Purdue and Cincinnati wins are good for the Musketeers and for one more week they hang on to their spot on the right side of the bubble.

 In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: On the fringe

St. Joseph's 18-10 (8-5)

RPI: 47

SOS: 50

The revolving door of A-10 teams making it onto this list continues and this week its time to welcome St. Joseph's to the party for the first time this season.

The numbers are good, very good for a team with 10 losses but that number is a lot to overcome. The don't have a ton of quality wins, the best have probably come against Drexel and Crieghton so make no mistake they are well out right now.

However, the Hawks have won five of their last six and find themselves in a better spot than both Dayton or UMass can claim at this point in the year.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: On the rise

Miami (FL) 16-9 (7-5)

RPI: 46

SOS: 29

Miami sports just a 1-7 record against the RPI top 50, which won't impress the committee much, however their one win came in a big way on the road against Duke.

Unfortunately for Jim Larranaga's squad, their next best win is nowhere close (UMass), and they missed out on two opportunities this week against Florida State and UNC.

They'll have one more shot at it when they host Florida State on Feb. 26, a game they really need to win to feel safe.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: Steady

North Carolina State 18-9 (7-5)

RPI: 58

SOS: 40

After their collapse of epic proportions on the road against Duke in which it blew a 20-point lead in the last 10 minutes, NC State followed it up with another loss to Florida State.

Neither loss is bad obviously, but for a team that needs quality wins, these are two opportunities they won't get back.

The Wolfpack are just 1-7 versus the RPI top 50, and 0-4 against the top four teams in the ACC. Simply put, the Wolfpack must beat North Carolina at home on Tuesday if they want any chance at an at large bid.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: Fading

Iowa State 19-8 (9-5)

RPI: 41

SOS: 54

The Cyclones split their games this week, losing at Baylor but taking care of business against Oklahoma.

Iowa State is in a pretty good position. Its numbers are solid, it has a great win over Kansas and has done its job for the most part in conference play other than a questionable loss against Oklahoma State.

However, every season there appears to be one team who seems to be in great shape in mid-february that collapses and misses out on the big dance. If the Cyclones want to ensure it's not them, they'll start by beating Texas Tech this week.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: Steady

Kansas State 18-8 (7-7)

RPI: 50

SOS: 61

I wasn't lying last week when I said K-State was about to enter into the toughest three-game stretch any team would face all season.

Fortunately for the Wildcats, they have picked up a win in that stretch. After falling to Kansas,  Kansas State desperately needed another win over the Big 12's big three to cement itself as an at large candidate in the tournament, and it got it by beating Baylor on Saturday.

Now the Wildcats are in an excellent position. If they can knock off Missouri in their next game, they'll be a proverbial lock.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: On the upswing  

Texas 17-10 (7-7)

RPI: 51

SOS: 25

Texas was sitting pretty in the bubble picture last week after knocking off Kansas State. Then the Longhorns went and lost to Oklahoma State this week dropping them right back down to where they were.

The Longhorns loss to OK State is an epitome of their inconsistency this season. They have some very nice wins, and some even better close losses that reveal that they are likely one of the best 68 teams in the country. But they also have plenty of questionable losses to boot.

As it stands, there OK for now, but a win over Baylor this week would be advisable.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: On the fringe

Cincinnati 19-8 (9-5)

RPI: 79

SOS: 123

Very good week for Cincinnati. It took care of Providence and then beat fellow bubble team Seton Hall, which will go a long way in its chances of notching a tournament spot.

The Bearcats are an interesting case, assuredly they are not as bad as their RPI states (at least its out of the nineties now), but they can't claim much because of their atrocious nonconference SOS.

Nine wins in the Big East is a lot though, and if they were in last week they are in again now.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: On the rise

West Virginia 17-10 (7-7)

RPI: 40

SOS: 7

The Mountaineers got a much needed win over rival Pittsburgh to snap a two game losing streak and get back to .500 in the Big East.

The best number pointing in West Virginia's favor is 7, its SOS on the season. Having a single digit number there shows that Bob Huggins challenged his team in the nonconference, which is something the committee loves to see.

The Mountaineers certainly wish they had a few more wins, but a 2-2 mark in their final four Big East games probably gets this team into the big dance.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: In decent shape, but lots of work to do.

Seton Hall 18-9 (7-8)

RPI: 34

SOS: 28

Seton Hall was on the wrong side of Saturday's bubble matchup between them and Cincinnati, abruptly snapping the Pirates three game winning streak.

Seton Hall is right on the edge right now. How much does the committee value wins in the Big East? That will be the question that very well determines the Pirates' fate at the end of the season since that is what they really have to hold on to (excluding a few nice wins over fellow bubble teams VCU, St. Joe's and Dayton).

If Seton Hall wants to feel safe, it better beat Georgetown at home on Tuesday.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: In trouble

Connecticut 16-10 (6-8)

RPI: 21

SOS: 6

For the life of me, I can't figure out how UConn's computer numbers are as high as they are. A team that is 16-10 and 6-8 in the Big East has an RPI of 21....what?

A team who's best nonconference wins are Florida State and Harvard has an SOS of 1? Really? Let's list their nonconference opponents.

Colombia, Wagner, Maine, Coppin State,  Central Florida, FSU, Harvard, UNC Asheville, Arkansas, Holy Cross, Fairfield. Sure the Big East is good, but that's the best schedule in the nation...interesting.

Anyways, unfortunately I don't make up the computer numbers, so UConn's can't be ignored, and it will likely be enough to catapult it into the dance whether it deserves it or not.

Still the committee isn't going to take a 7-11 team from the conference into the dance, so UConn needs to win at least two out of its last four games, which come against Villanova, Syracuse, Providence and Pitt. If it can't win two of those games, it doesn't deserve to be in anyways.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: Fading

South Florida 17-10 (10-4)

RPI: 50

SOS: 40

The Bulls got another victory in the conference on Saturday at Pittsburgh  to move them to a shocking 10-4 in the Big East. 

Three of South Florida's four losses in the conference have come against top teams, only their road loss to UConn early on is questionable. 

Unfortunately, they don't have any great wins at all.  On Wednesday, they'll get another crack at it when they go on the road to No. 2 Syracuse.

If they win that game, have a 11-4 Big East mark and a top 50 RPI and SOS, it will be hard to leave them out.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: Surging 

Purdue 17-10 (7-7)

RPI: 52

SOS: 23

The Boilermakers contributed to the complete demise of Illinois by continuing their losing streak this week, but they were unable to follow it up with a win at home over Michigan State.

While beating the Spartans wasn't a must, Purdue will now have only one more opportunity in the regular season to pick up a big conference victory, and that will come at Michigan, where the Wolverines haven't lost all season.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: On the fringe 

Minnesota 17-10 (5-9)

RPI: 72

SOS: 57

The Golden Gophers are dangerously close to falling off this list altogether (Illinois already has), and if they don't beat Michigan State this week they will.

Minnesota really needed to beat Northwestern this week to remain relevant, but instead it's the Wildcats that now have a decent chance at a bubble spot.

The good news for Minnesota is it still has some chances. Its next three games come against Michigan State, Indiana and Wisconsin.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: In deep trouble 

Northwestern 16-10 (6-8)

RPI: 43

SOS: 9

While Illinois and Minnesota have been taking nosedives, Northwestern remains in the mix for its first tournament bid in school history.

The loss to Purdue hurt, so did the loss at Indiana, but Northwestern took care of Minnesota on Saturday and those computer numbers just keep getting better.

The Wildcats post just a 2-6 mark against the RPI top 50, so there is still a long way to go, however if they can beat either Michigan or Ohio State to close out the regular season and win road games over Iowa and Penn State, they would have a real chance.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: On the rise 

George Mason 23-6 (14-2)

RPI: 83

SOS: 219

The Brackbuster schedule makers did not do the Patriots any favors, giving them a home game against Lamar to show off their talents.

Mason won that game, but it does almost nothing to bolster their resume. Their miraculous come from behind win over VCU was nice, and it moved them into a tie with Drexel for the conference lead, but in terms of an at large bid, it's probably still not there for GMU.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: Steady 

VCU 23-6 (13-3)

RPI: 70

SOS: 197

The Rams hold a slight advantage over their counterparts George Mason and Drexel in terms of at large possibilities. 

The Rams hold a nice win over South Florida, as well as their bracket busting victory over Northern Iowa and at least challenged themselves somewhat in the nonconference with games against Alabama, Seton Hall and Akron. However, of those three games, VCU only managed a win against the Zips.

VCU, however, is now a game back in the league standings after being shocked by George Mason, and it will likely take a run an unbeaten streak to the conference title game, which includes another game against the Patriots, if they are going to get a second consecutive unlikely at large bid.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: Steady 

Central Floria 19-7 (8-4)

RPI: 55

SOS: 96

I'm really not much of a believer in UCF's profile, which is why I took them off this list last week.

However, there are those who think that Central Florida is close to being on the right side of the bubble, so I'm willing to give them a second look.

Central Florida beat UConn in the Bahamas when they were ranked fourth in the country, which was great at the time, but how much does a win over Connecticut really mean now that the Huskies are under .500 in the Big East?

What's next then?  There's that win over Memphis which is OK, but that's not nearly enough to put them in. Central Florida is 1-6 against the RPI top 50. It's true it has no terrible losses, but UCF will need to win out, including at Memphis, to get a really serious look from me.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: Fading 

Colorado State 16-9 (5-5)

RPI: 29

SOS: 15

Colorado State followed up it's "can't lose" loss against TCU with another "can't lose" loss against Boise State, nearly dropping it right off of this list.

However, the Rams provided some confidence with their win over Wyoming, and with it practically eliminated the Cowboys from any chance of an at large birth.

Those numbers won't go away no matter how hard I try to ignore them. However, I also see CSU's 5-5 record in the Mountain West 4-8 road record and 1-4 record against the RPI top 50.

The committee isn't stupid, and it will know enough to look past those inflated numbers. There is good news for CSU though. There next three games are against the three ranked Mountain West teams. Win two of those games, and we'll talk.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: In trouble 

Washington 19-8 (12-3)

RPI: 54

SOS: 69

Since getting blown out by 25 points on the road against Oregon, the Huskies seemed to have figured something out.

Since then, Washington has won three straight including a monumental home win over Arizona this weekend to remain tied with Cal atop the Pac 12 standings.

Last week I wasn't buying in, but after beating the Wildcats, Washington takes their spot on the list.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: On the rise 

Colorado 18-8 (10-4)

RPI: 76

SOS: 111

The Buffaloes keep winning games, so there is no real justification in taking them off this list, but they simply don't have a lot of meat on their resume.

Colorado lost all of its nonconference games of note, and it would take a run to the Pac 12 Championship game plus wins over Cal and Oregon to warrant an at large bid.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: In trouble 

Oregon 19-8 (10-5)

RPI: 55

SOS: 71

Oregon really could have used a road win over Cal to help a resume lacking in quality victories.  It came close but fell on the road by three furthering itself from the right side of the bubble.

Oregon won't have any more chances to help itself in conference play and right now, despite its solid record in the Pac 12, its lack of wins in the nonconference will leave it out.

Winning out is a must, if it can get to 13-5 in the Pac 12. Oregon will at least warrant a long hard look.

In right now: No

Bottom Line: Steady 

Arizona 19-9 (10-5)

RPI: 68

SOS: 88

Other than Washington, Arizona remains in a better spot than the other Pac 12 bubble teams.  However, with the conference being as down as it is, it may not be enough to push it through to the tournament.

Arizona missed out on a chance to make a statement by beating Washington on the road, but it lost, which means it falls behind Washington in the Pac 12 bubble mix. 

The Wildcats challenged themselves in the nonconference but missed out on multiple opportunities to get wins that would pad their resume. However, at least they played a tough nonconference schedule which is good enough for them to hold on to the final at large spot in this bubble mix. 

Winning their last three games in league play is essential, which seems to be a common theme amongst bubble teams. 

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: Descending 

Mississippi State 19-8 (6-6)

RPI: 58

SOS: 73

Suddenly, the Mississippi State Bulldogs find themselves somewhere they have not been for the majority of the season, on the bubble.

A first thought is they are totally safe, after all they have been ranked in the Top 25 for much of the season and look to be on paper one of the best teams in the SEC.

However, Mississippi State has lost three in a row, (two in overtime) against lower teams in the SEC and now are just 6-6 in league play.

Mississippi State has wins over West Virginia, Arizona, and Vanderbilt which is probably good enough for now, but those numbers aren't all that great. If they can't score the upset over Kentucky tomorrow night, the Feb. 25 meeting with Alabama looms large for the Bulldogs. 

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: In decent shape, but lots of work  to do. 

Alabama 17-9 (6-6)

RPI: 37

SOS: 17

'BAMA got it done against Tennessee on Saturday to stop a two game slide and get back to .500 in the SEC. 

The win over the Volunteers was the first step in their "highly advisable" two game stretch as I wrote last week. The second will be beating Arkansas at Arkansas, not an easy task by any means.

With its solid computer numbers, Alabama can probably survive a loss to the Razorbacks and still be in, but I certainly wouldn't recommend chancing it.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: Steady 

Arkansas 17-10 (5-7)

RPI: 87

SOS: 67

At this time last week, Arkansas was 5-5 in league play and in decent position to stay in the hunt for an at large bid.

However, after getting blown out by Tennessee and Florida, things are getting much stickier. The Razorbacks have seen their RPI drop 20 spots into the 80s.  The wins over Michigan and Vanderbilt at home are nice and all but they'll only carry you so far.

If they want any real shot at it, they need to knock off Alabama at home on Thursday night. 

In right now: No

Bottom Line: Fading  

Brigham Young 23-6 (11-3)

RPI: 46

SOS: 107

The Cougars survived what would have been a devastating loss to San Francisco this week and walked out of The Golden City with a much needed victory.

BYU followed that up with a win over Santa Clara moving into its big WCC matchup with Gonzaga on Wednesday night. If BYU can manage a win in that one, it'll be in great shape to lock down an at large spot. 

If they falter, Dave Rose and company will certainly be sweating it out if they don't win the WCC tournament. 

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: Steady 

Last Ten In/ First Ten out

For the record, here is my last 10 in, and my first 10 out as of Feb. 20.

Last 10 In

1. Arizona

2. Northwestern

3. Cincinnati

4. Xavier

5. Texas

6. Seton Hall

7. Washington

8. Miami (FL)

9. Connecticut

10. Purdue

First 10 Out

1. South Florida

2. North Carolina State

3. Arkansas

4. VCU

5. George Mason

6. Oregon

7. Colorado State

8. Colorado

9. Central Florida

10. Minnesota