A Bold Prediction for Every MLB Team and Ranking the Odds Each Comes True

Spring training will be in full swing within the month, and there are a number of intriguing storylines for each team as the 2012 season begins.

Aside from deciding position battles and getting in shape for the season, spring training also allows for a good deal of prognosticating regarding the upcoming season.

So here's a look at one bold prediction for each MLB team in 2012, and what I feel are the odds that each one actually comes to pass.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Trevor Bauer Breaks Camp as the Fifth Starter

After a dominant season at UCLA in which he went 13-2, 1.25 ERA, 203 Ks, 136.2 IP over 16 starts, the Diamondbacks selected Bauer third overall in last year's draft.

He made seven starts between High Single-A and Double-A and will be in camp with the team this spring. While the Diamondbacks rotation looks set, Bauer could force his way into the rotation with a strong spring training.

Josh Collmenter was solid as a rookie last season, going 10-10 with a 3.38 ERA, but he does not have nearly the upside of Bauer and will be 26 years old this coming season. 

Chances It Happens: 20 percent

Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward Bounces Back with an All-Star Season

After an impressive rookie season in which he hit .277 BA, 18 HR, 72 RBI at the age of 20, Heyward took a big step back in his sophomore season last year.

His average plummeted to .227, and he was limited to just 128 games due to injury last season, as he spent much of the season hitting in the bottom of the order.

Heyward is far too talented to not bounce back, and he has undeniable .300 BA, 30 HR, 100 RBI potential. While he may not post those numbers this coming season, he should be in line for a bounce back and could rank among the most productive outfielders in baseball next season.

Chance It Happens: 45 percent

Baltimore Orioles: Nolan Reimold Secures Starting Left Field Job, Hits 25 HR

In his rookie season in 2009, Nolan Reimold hit .279 BA, 15 HR, 45 RBI over just 358 at-bats. Last year he hit 13 HR with 45 RBI over 267 at-bats.

Despite that success, he has never been able to latch onto a full-time job, and the Orioles signed Endy Chavez this offseason to at least contend for at-bats in left field.

At 28 years old, Reimold could be in line for a breakout season, and if he can manage to get 500 at-bats, a 25 HR, 80 RBI season is not out of the question.

Chance It Happens: 50 percent

Boston Red Sox: Daniel Bard Will Return to the Bullpen Before Season's End

With John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka shelved following Tommy John surgery and Tim Wakefield retired, the Red Sox will open the season with stud setup man Daniel Bard penciled in as their fourth starter.

He was dominant in 2010 with a 1.93 ERA in 73 appearances, but he got hit a bit harder last season in posting a 3.33 ERA over 70 appearances and a somewhat troubling 2-9 record.

Bard only spent one season in the minors as a starter, and he posted a 7.08 ERA and 3-7 record over 22 starts, so that does little to inspire confidence either. He certainly has the stuff to find success in any role, but his track record suggests that he may run into trouble as a starter.

Chance It Happens: 30 percent

Chicago Cubs: Josh Vitters Breaks Camp as the Starting Third Baseman

The third overall pick out of high school in the 2007 MLB draft, Vitters has had an up-and-down pro career to this point, but he finally seems to be putting things together.

He had the best season of his career last year in a full year at Double-A, hitting .283 BA, 14 HR, 81 RBI. That was capped by a stint with the Mesa Solar Sox of the Arizona Fall League where he was among the top hitters in the league with a .360 BA, 4 HR, 17 RBI line over 24 games.

He spent time at first base and in the outfield this fall, but with Aramis Ramirez gone and trade acquisition Ian Stewart (.156 BA in 2011) penciled in as the starting third baseman as of now, he should get every chance to win the job this spring.

Chance It Happens: 40 percent

Chicago White Sox: Addison Reed Will Be an AL All-Star

The White Sox's top prospect, Reed was absolutely dominant last season in the minors, beginning the year in Single-A and finishing in the majors. 

His combined minor league line of 2-1, five saves, 1.26 ERA, 111 Ks, 78.1 IP makes him not only the team's top prospect but the top relief pitching prospect in baseball.

He is slated to fill a setup role as of now, but after Matt Thornton failed to hold onto the closer's job last season, don't be surprised if Reed is closing games sooner rather than later. Regardless, setup men have been making the All-Star game with frequency of late, and whatever role Reed is in, he is capable of earning a spot in the Midsummer Classic.

Chance It Happens: 30 percent

Cincinnati Reds: Mat Latos Will Have a Losing Record, ERA over 4.00

The Reds gave up a lot to score 24-year-old right-hander Mat Latos from the Padres this offseason, and he will open the season as their No. 2 starter.

Expectations will be high after the team gave up three top prospects and Edinson Volquez to get him, and he could find those expectations hard to meet away from the comfort of pitching in Petco Park.

His ERA on the road last season was .44 higher than it was at home, and while he has a great arm, he could struggle in the hitter-friendly environment of Great American Ball Park.

Chance It Happens: 55 percent

Cleveland Indians: Carlos Santana Posts a .300 BA, 30 HR, 100 RBI Season

Santana enjoyed a solid first full season in the majors last year, hitting .239 BA, 27 HR, 79 RBI, while posting a solid .808 OPS.

His low average should be righted by a combination of his continued development and the fact that he had a fairly low .263 BABIP. He was a .300 hitter in the minors, and that should translate to the majors.

There is no questioning his power, and hitting in the middle of an improved Indians lineup should allow for more RBI opportunities. A .300 BA, 30 HR, 100 RBI season would be a big jump, but he has the tools to pull it off.

Chances It Happens: 10 percent

Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki Wins NL MVP

The Rockies have had as busy an offseason as anyone, adding 2B Marco Scutaro, 3B Casey Blake, RF Michael Cuddyer, C Ramon Hernandez, SP Jeremy Guthrie and SP Guillermo Moscoso, among others.

Last season, the Diamondbacks surprised more than a few people in winning the NL West, and the division should be wide open once again this season.

If the Rockies can put it all together and win the division, Troy Tulowitzki will likely be a big reason why, as he is the most dynamic shortstop in all of baseball and at just 27 is just entering his prime. It may not be this year, but sometime soon expect Tulo to win an MVP.

Chances It Happens: 15 percent

Detroit Tigers: Jacob Turner Will Be Traded

The Tigers have proven this offseason that they are looking to win now, as they reacted to the season-ending injury of Victor Martinez by signing Prince Fielder.

With that in mind, the team will likely be willing to pull the trigger on a big trade if it is hit with another injury or given an opportunity to upgrade at second base or in the leadoff spot.

Its biggest trade chip would be 21-year-old right-hander Jacob Turner, who made his big-league debut last season and is ranked 21st on the Baseball America Top 100. Don't be surprised if he is dangled in any potential trade talks the Tigers get into.

Chances It Happens: 25 percent

Houston Astros: Jose Altuve Will Be Their All-Star Representative

The 2012 season will likely be a long one for the Astros and their fanbase, but one potential bright spot could be the play of second baseman Jose Altuve.

The 22-year-old hit .389 BA, 10 HR, 59 RBI, 24 SB in 87 minor league games last season before earning a call-up.

While he won't duplicate those numbers in the majors, a .300 BA, 20 SB season at the second base position would put him among the top tier at the position in the National League and would likely be enough to make him the Astros' All-Star representative.

Chances It Happens: 25 percent

Kansas City Royals: Mike Moustakas Will Lead the Team in Home Runs

Moustakas turned in a phenomenal season between Double-A and Triple-A in 2010, hitting .322 BA, 36 HR, 124 RBI to make him among the top prospects in all of baseball.

He opened last season well at Triple-A, hitting .287 BA, 10 HR, 44 RBI through 55 games before earning a call-up and becoming the everyday third baseman.

His numbers dipped a bit in the majors, and he finished with a .263 BA, 5 HR, 30 RBI season, but his power is for real, and over a full season of at-bats and with some experience under his belt a 30-plus home run season is within reason.

Chances It Happens: 30 percent

Los Angeles Angels: Weaver, Haren and Wilson Will Combine for 50 Wins

The Angels' big splash of the offseason was signing Albert Pujols, but adding C.J. Wilson to a staff that already included Jered Weaver and Dan Haren may turn out to be just as big a move.

Last season, Weaver (18-8, 2.41 ERA) and Haren (16-10, 3.17 ERA) each finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting, as did Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA). 

While saying that those three will duplicate their win totals is tough to predict, overall they should be able to make a run at a combined 50 wins again this season in Los Angeles.

Chances It Happens: 50 percent

Los Angeles Dodgers: Andre Ethier Will Be Traded Before July

The Dodgers had a busy offseason, signing a handful of veterans to fill out the roster and locking Matt Kemp up on an eight-year, $160 million deal.

Their other All-Star outfielder is without a long-term deal, though, as Andre Ethier will hit free agency at the end of the 2012 season.

A notoriously fast starter, the Dodgers may be best suited dealing Ethier when his value is highest if he has another dominant first few months, so if they do decide to move him, it could come long before the July deadline.

Chances It Happens: 40 percent

Miami Marlins: Mike Stanton Will Lead the National League in HR

There may be no player in baseball with more raw power than Mike Stanton, as the 6'5", 235-pound slugger doesn't just hit home runs but launches them.

Last season, his first full year in the majors, he hit 34 home runs and was still just 21 years old, as he has as bright a future as anyone in the game.

He was fifth in the league in long balls last year, and with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder now in the American League, his chances of topping the Senior Circuit are that much better.

Chances It Happens: 30 percent

Milwaukee Brewers: Norichika Aoki Will Earn Everyday Playing Time (500 AB)

A three-time batting champion in Japan, Aoki signed a two-year, $2.5 million contract with the Brewers this winter.

In eight seasons in Japan he had a .329 career average, and he is one of only four players to tally 200 hits in a season with 209 in 2010.

Originally slated to be a reserve outfielder and battle with Nyjer Morgan and Carlos Gomez for at-bats in center field, he could find himself in a much more significant role if Ryan Braun's 50-game suspension is upheld. If he plays well, he could emerge as the team's leadoff hitter and a catalyst for the offense.

Chances It Happens: 33 percent

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer Will Win Comeback Player of the Year

Since signing an eight-year, $184 million extension, Mauer has failed to live up to that lofty paycheck, and he managed just 82 games last season.

Even before he was injured, his power dropped off significantly from 2009 to 2010, as he went from 28 home runs to nine home runs.

If he can manage to stay healthy, there is no reason to think he won't be a shoo-in for a .300 average and some solid run production hitting in the middle of an improved lineup.

Chances It Happens: 50 percent

New York Mets: Johan Santana Will Lead the Team in Wins and ERA

After missing all of last season after undergoing shoulder surgery, Johan Santana threw off a mound for the first time this past weekend.

He will still be only 33 years old this season, and he was solid in 2010, going 11-9 with a 2.98 ERA over 29 starts, so he should have plenty left in the tank if he can bounce back from the surgery.

With the rest of the Mets staff made up of Mike Pelfrey, Dillon Gee, Jon Niese and R.A. Dickey, the team would love nothing more than for Santana to emerge as the ace of the staff once again.

Chances It Happens: 35 percent

New York Yankees: Robinson Cano Will Win AL MVP

As superstar teammates Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez have seen their production decline in recent years, Robinson Cano has stepped forward as one of the offensive leaders of the Yankees.

He is coming off a season in which he set career highs with 118 RBI and 104 R, while also hitting over .300 for the third consecutive season and playing at least 159 games for the fifth straight year.

As his power has continued to progress and he has begun to be more heavily relied on to drive in runs, his numbers have spiked across the board, and he should continue to put up huge numbers in the middle of the New York lineup. A slight increase in numbers could mean an MVP, as he has been third and sixth in voting the past two years respectively.

Chances It Happens: 20 percent

Oakland Athletics: Jarrod Parker Will Lead the Team in Wins

Acquired from the Diamondbacks in the deal that sent Trevor Cahill to Arizona, Parker will likely open the season in the fifth spot in the Oakland rotation.

Following the trades of Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, the rotation will consist of Brandon McCarthy, free-agent signing Bartolo Colon and Gonzalez trade acquisitions Brad Peacock and Tom Milone.

Last season, Parker was 11-8 with a 3.79 ERA at Double-A before earning a late-season call-up and eventually securing a postseason roster spot, and he should have no problem building off that success this coming season.

Chances It Happens: 25 percent

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels Wins NL Cy Young

Set to hit the open market at the end of the season, Hamels is coming off the best season of his career, as he went 14-9, 2.79 ERA, 194 Ks, which was good for a fifth-place Cy Young voting finish.

The Phillies and Hamels have yet to come to terms on an extension, and if that doesn't happen before the end of spring training, he could very well be pitching for his 2013 home.

Some of his stiffest competition will come from teammates Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, but if he can step things up a notch in a contract year, he could be the one who takes home the hardware.

Chances It Happens: 15 percent

Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez Will Win NL Comeback Player of the Year

The second overall pick in the 2008 draft, Alvarez burst onto the scene in 2010 and posted a .256 BA, 16 HR, 64 RBI line over just 347 at-bats.

That was enough for the Pirates to pencil him in as the cleanup hitter to open the 2011 season, but he flopped badly, hitting just .191 BA, 4 HR, 19 RBI and spending time on the DL and in Triple-A.

He will get the first crack at the starting third base job again this spring, and the team traded for Casey McGehee from the Brewers as both insurance and a way to push the 25-year-old. Expect a big bounce-back season from Alvarez, the season everyone was expecting last year.

Chances It Happens: 18 percent

San Diego Padres: Micah Owings Will Win Silver Slugger as a Reliever

A two-way star at the University of Tulane, Owings won the Silver Slugger as a rookie in 2007 when he hit .333 BA, 4 HR, 15 RBI.

In total over his five-year career, he has put together a line of .286 BA, 9 HR, 35 RBI. He also had a stellar season on the mound last year, going 8-0 with a 3.57 ERA in 33 games (four starts).

The Padres signed him to a one-year, $1 million deal this offseason, and he will be pitching out of the bullpen as their long reliever. Despite that, he could see plenty of at-bats as a pinch-hitter, and he has a solid track record in Petco Park, going 7-for-12 with a pair of doubles in San Diego in his career.

Chances It Happens: 25 percent

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt Will Be the First Baseman from Day One

After hitting .352 BA, 23 HR, 112 RBI, 22 SB in his first pro season in 2010, Belt was given a shot at a big-league job last season but struggled to a .225 BA, 9 HR, 18 RBI line over 187 at-bats.

He will be given a chance to win the starting first base job once again this spring but will have to compete with the contract of Aubrey Huff.

After Huff led the team in HR and RBI during their 2010 World Series run, the team signed him to a two-year, $22 million deal. However, he hit just .246 BA, 12 HR, 59 RBI last season, and despite Huff's salary, Belt could force his way into the lineup.

Chances It Happens: 50 percent

Seattle Mariners: Ichiro Will Post One More .300 BA, 200 Hit Season

After 10 straight seasons in which he hit over .300 and raked out 200-plus hits, Ichiro suffered through a down year last year in which he hit just .272 and tallied 184 hits.

He'll be 38 this coming year, but he is no standard case, and he could certainly have enough left in the tank for one more Ichiro-type season.

There have been talks that the team could move him out of the leadoff spot this coming season, meaning he could be in line for fewer at-bats, which would hurt his chances, but I still think he could have one solid season left in him.

Chances It Happens: 40 percent

St. Louis Cardinals: David Freese Will Lead the NL in RBI

Last postseason, David Freese showed everyone what he is capable of, as he took home NLCS and World Series MVP.

He had a solid regular season as well, despite time missed due to injury, as he hit .297 BA, 10 HR, 55 RBI over just 97 games and 333 at-bats.

With Albert Pujols gone, the team will look to him to pick up some of the slack in the run production department, and if he can stay healthy, there is no reason he can't drive in well over 100 runs and make a push for the league lead.

Chances It Happens: Five percent

Tampa Bay Rays: Matt Moore Will Win AL Rookie of the Year

The best pitching prospect in baseball, Moore was absolutely dominant last season in the minors, going 12-3, 1.92 ERA, 210 Ks in 155 IP.

That earned him a cup of coffee at the end of last season, and he wound up not only finding his way onto the Rays' postseason roster but also being the team's Game 1 starter in the ALDS against a potent Rangers lineup.

He responded to the challenge by throwing seven innings of shutout ball, allowing just two hits while walking two and striking out six, and that is likely only a sampling of the great things to come.

Chances It Happens: 60 percent

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish Will Post Better Stats Than Dice-K Did His Rookie Year

If he can make 32 starts in his rookie year like Daisuke Matsuzaka did, Yu Darvish will have a real shot at surpassing the 15-12, 4.40 ERA, 201 Ks that Dice-K posted as a rookie in 2006.

The two pitchers are far from similar, and Darvish has the repertoire and pure stuff to make a smoother transition to the big league game that Dice-K did.

My prediction for his first-season stat line: 16-8, 3.60 ERA, 205 Ks, 185 IP.

Chances It Happens: 55 percent

Toronto Blue Jays: Ricky Romero Will Win AL Cy Young

In three seasons in the league, Romero has gotten progressively better each season, and he enters the 2012 season with a career line of 42-29, 3.60 ERA, 493 Ks, 613 IP.

He was among the best pitchers in the league last year, going 15-11, 2.92 ERA, 178 Ks, 225 IP, and he was especially good in the second half with an 8-3, 2.72 ERA, 77 Ks, 102.2 IP.

He will be 27 this coming season and should be entering his prime in his fourth big-league season. If he can improve even slightly on his 2011 numbers across the board, he would be solidly in the running for the Cy Young.

Chances It Happens: 15 percent

Washington Nationals: Bryce Harper Wins NL Rookie of the Year

Few, if any, prospects in baseball history have come with as much hype surrounding them as Bryce Harper, and as an 18-year-old last season he hit .297 BA, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 26 SB and reached Double-A.

He still has a lot to prove, but early indications have manager Davey Johnson looking to play Harper in right field from the get-go if he proves capable this spring.

If he opens the season with the team or manages to earn a call-up before the All-Star break, he has the tools to make him the front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year, even at 19 years old.

Chances It Happens: 30 percent