Keith Hernandez, Rafael Palmeiro and Orlando Cepeda Have a Lot in Common

Keith Hernandez and Rafael Palmeiro have two things in common. Each was an outstanding first baseman and each was a substance abuser.

Getting the latter out of the way, Hernandez abused cocaine while Palmeiro abused performance enhancing substances, but that's not what this is about.

It is generally agreed that if Palmeiro had been clean, he would have been elected to the Hall of Fame. It is also generally agreed that Hernandez will never be elected to the Hall of Fame.

Cocaine use has nothing to do with it. The "experts" are of the opinion that Hernandez was not good enough.

Palmeiro was, at least until he became old, a fine defensive first baseman, but he was no Keith Hernandez. 

Palmeiro's Rtot/yr (number of runs above or below average fielder was worth over about 135 games) is three, compared to Hernandez' eight. Anyone that saw each of them play doesn't need statistics to conclude that Hernandez was the superior defensive player.

Palmeiro hit 569 home runs. That is the primary reason he would have made the Hall of Fame.

Hernandez was not a home run hitter. He finished with a measly 162 home runs.

Hernandez batted .296/.384/.436 with a 128 OPS+, which is far from extraordinary. He led the league in runs scored twice and in doubles once. He won the MVP once, tied with Willie Stargell in 1979, which was the season in which Hernandez won the batting title.

Palmeiro batted .288/.371/.515 with a 132 OPS+, which is far from extraordinary. He led the league in hits once, in runs scored once and in doubles once.

While Palmeiro hit many more home runs than Hernandez, there is little difference between them offensively.

Now let's bring in our friend Orlando Cepeda.

In 1975, the Baby Bull was arrested for smuggling several pounds of marijuana. He spent 10 months in prison and in 1999, became a Hall of Fame member. Just the facts.

Cepeda was an average defensive first baseman.  He has an Rtot/yr of -1.

The Hall of Fame first baseman hit 379 home runs and batted .297/.350/.499 with a 133 OPS+.

Do those number remind you of anyone? Oh, they are similar to those of Keith Hernandez and Rafael Palmeiro.

Now, what is the point? I'll tell you.

None of the three belong in the Hall of Fame.