2012 NFL Draft: 10 Players That Could Fall Come Draft Day

The business of NFL front offices and scouting departments projecting player performance and career impact is an exercise in chaos at its best.  The very nature of predicting human performance based on the analysis of a handful of football games, physical measurables, medical reports and interviews is extremely difficult. 

Any football fan or analyst need only examine the results of any NFL draft in any year, including the epic failures of very highly selected players and the seemingly unlikely successes of those who were not even drafted.  And this variance occurs at the hands and minds of those personnel that are, theoretically, most qualified to do it—National Football League teams.

With this in mind we should then understand how much more difficult it is for the draftnik community to do its job in predicting these same player outcomes while concurrently matching certain guys to specific teams based on perceived needs, schemes, fits and personalities.  Lucky for you, the readers, this does not deter us in the grand effort of trying to accomplish just that.

This slideshow identifies a player at each of the 10 primary field positions on offense and defense, who could wind up seeing his draft stock ultimately fall on the big day based on where some in the industry perceive it to be right now.  Draft-day fallers occur for all sorts of reasons, obvious and latent, deserved and undeserved, resulting in both outcomes: justified and unjustified.

With any pre-draft analysis timed this early, it is important to keep a couple of things in mind.  First is that the ultimate draft market for a player is still far from being set in stone with the combine, medicals and pro days forthcoming, in addition to the continued film study teams are doing on players.  Secondly, even if your player falls or your team picks a guy whose stock is perceived or reported to have fallen, it does not mean that he will not succeed—because it happens every year.

As will be customary in this space, only heights and weights will be listed for players whose measurements have been officially confirmed.

Quarterback, Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson, QB, University of Wisconsin, 5'10.5" 205, Redshirt Senior, DOB: 11/29/1988

Wilson is one of the more polarizing quarterback prospects in this draft class, much of it surrounding the same reason that he is a candidate to fall on draft day and finds himself on this list—his height.  Measuring in at under 5'11" at the Senior Bowl, a lot of evaluators simply consider him too short to be an elite, even effective perhaps, NFL pocket passer.  This has to do with the height and arm length of the linemen he will play behind and against at the next level and the disadvantage it causes with the timing and visibility of passing lanes.

The intrinsic quality to Wilson's overall quarterback play is not in question.  One very prominent draft analyst has even quipped that Wilson would be a likely first-rounder if he were even three inches taller.  The reality is his height will result in him falling down the board on draft day.  But the real question is just how far? 

The highest range in which he has been talked about is right near the end of the top-100 group, putting him on the cusp of the end of the third round or one of the first picks in the fourth.  Other analysts feel he does not even warrant a draft pick (there are seven rounds in the modern NFL draft with compensation picks typically pushing the entire count between 230 to 250 total selections) because he provides zero projection as a future NFL starting quarterback.

Wilson is one of my favorite signal-callers in the entire class.  I certainly have a draftable grade on him—day three and the sixth round right now.  But I would not be surprised by or critical of a team that took him right around that 100th-pick range because he possesses a lot of translatable skills and intangibles for the position.

Running Back, Ronnie Hillman

Ronnie Hillman, RB, San Diego State University, Redshirt Sophomore, DOB: 9/14/1991

Hillman gained national notoriety the last two seasons by putting up over 3,300 rushing yards and 38 total touchdowns during that span, highlighted by many long runs.  Those numbers, his very early draft declaration this year as a sophomore and the apparent electric ability on film create the impression and some attached hype that he should be a mid-round sleeper.

The reality is that he is undersized, plays with very little lower-body strength, questionable instincts and does not run the ball inside with much conviction.  He can usually be seen looking to bounce runs outside and away from contact, something he was able to do with great success against the relatively weak competition on San Diego State's Mountain West Conference schedule.  Had he played for a program in a major FBS conference, he would have only succeeded in a complementary role, a projection that is even more narrow at the NFL level. 

Even as a perimeter threat or speed back, his top-end explosiveness and moves leave something to be desired.

With so much development remaining in terms of strength, instincts, as well as on passing downs as a receiver and blocker, I feel like Hillman's decision to come out early in 2012 was even worse than the more widely criticized one by University of Oregon quarterback Darron Thomas.  I would be shocked if Hillman does not get drafted but for me he is not a back that fits successfully on an NFL depth chart right now.

Wide Receiver, Alshon Jeffery

Alshon Jeffery, WR, University of South Carolina, Junior, DOB: 2/14/1990

Jeffery is a huge wide receiver prospect that has shown the ability to be an impact playmaker in the Southeastern Conference for the last three years.  At the combine next week it is expected that he will measure in at least 6'4" and 230 pounds.  His size, receiving skills and ability to make plays downfield have made him one of the very top wide receiver prospects in this class.  He projected as a sure first-rounder all year, and still is in most circles, even residing in the top 10 overall or the best at his position in some cases.

When it is all said and done, we could see Jeffery fall a full round into the early second because of questions surrounding his timed speed and, more importantly, his ability to consistently separate against NFL corners.  A couple of things with this: speed is not a direct indication of a receiver's ability to separate.  Surely it helps, but route manipulation through body control, agility and quick feet in space and coming out of breaks, and also running crisp routes are all probably more crucial than just pure speed. 

In Jeffery's case, he also features an enormous frame that when used properly acts as a built-in component to create space in patterns, much the same way tight ends effectively do so even against quicker coverage players.

A lot of curiosity exists about how heavy and what 40 time Jeffery will run at the combine in Indianapolis.  But I think even more instructive is how he looks on film against the better corners he faced during his career, what his true agility is and if his ball skills are good or actually elite when it comes to winning the battle for the catch with bodies on him.  Those answers will go a long way to determining just how far he will fall on draft day.

Tight End, Michael Egnew

Michael Egnew, TE, University of Missouri, 6'5" 250, Senior, DOB: 11/1/1989

The case of Egnew in this slideshow is likely less drastic than many of the other players profiled because his perceived slide gradually unfolded over time.  Entering the 2011 college football season, and the 2012 NFL draft evaluation, he was arguably the top senior tight end prospect and a possible top-40 or -50 pick.  This was due in large part to his size, a hint that he may have the strength and in-line blocking capability to be excellent in both dimensions, and his productivity as a receiver.

When bearing down on Egnew's film, however, his entire game lacks one key attribute that most scouts and evaluators want to attach to high draft picks: dynamic.  He just is not very dynamic in anything he does, lacking explosion as a blocker while also appearing as more of a high-end intermediate target in the passing game.  A reliable receiver that should develop enough as a blocker to be an every-down option in the NFL but perhaps only as a quality backup and not a championship-caliber starter.

With that being the case, even in a relatively thin tight end class at the top, Egnew has likely fallen a full round and maybe further, into the late second or even third, from his highest initial projections.

Offensive Line, Amini Silatolu

Amini Silatolu, OG, Midwestern State University (TX), Redshirt Senior, DOB: 9/16/1988

Silatolu features one of the best offensive guard profiles in this draft class due to playing with great strength and balance in his base combined with a mauling demeanor.  Even with a circuitous path to NFL prospect, beginning at San Joaquin Delta College (a California Community College) and finishing as an upperclassman with NCAA Division II Midwestern State University, he was rightly invited to attend the 2012 Senior Bowl, the most prestigious of the postseason college All-Star events.

A hamstring injury forced Silatolu to withdraw from the Senior Bowl, which may have had a greater impact on his evaluation than any other prospect there or who is being considered as highly in the draft.  By not participating, evaluators were unable to verify his dimensions or what kind of shape he is in.  It also prevented observation of his work week that would have spoken to technique, perceived work ethic, coachability and how he responded to competing with and against some of the other top seniors in this class. 

These considerations are especially important in light of the fact that reliable film on Silatolu is also harder to procure based on the level at which he played.

Silatolu might have been the third guard off the board, possibly as high as the early second round, but the difficulty with his evaluation could have him falling throughout day two.

Interior Defensive Lineman, Josh Chapman

Josh Chapman, DL, University of Alabama, Redshirt Senior, DOB: 6/10/1989

Chapman is arguably the best run defender in this class and one of the true anchor nose tackle prospects from which 3-4 teams can choose.  He has keyed the interior defensive line for Alabama in recent years on one of the stingiest rushing defense units in the country. 

He is not a legitimate pass-rush threat but does create a decent upfield push at times against the pocket.  What he does do at a consistently high level is anchor against the run, literally clogging up rush lanes, occupying space and blockers, sometimes more than one, to disrupt the timing and flow of opposing offenses, allowing his teammates to rack up big plays from the mess he has caused inside.

He did all of this on a torn anterior cruciate ligament and meniscus in his left knee this year.  Knowing this speaks very positively to his toughness and is almost hard to believe given how important his foundation is based on his size and the role he plays.  The negatives are that recovery from this surgery will thwart his ongoing postseason conditioning and evaluation, as well as throw question to his health, availability and chance for productivity as a 2012 NFL rookie.

Chapman could have performed, tested and curried momentum into the second round for teams looking for his specific role projection.  The injury concerns may have him settling into the third round or beyond.

Outside Linebacker, Bruce Irvin

Bruce Irvin, OLB, West Virginia University, Senior, DOB: 1/11/1990

Irvin has been mentioned throughout the 2012 draft evaluation process as a day two rush-'backer prospect based on the waves he made the last two seasons getting after the quarterback for the Mountaineers.  He is listed at 6'3" and 245 lbs and on film he looks extremely cut and fast but also not nearly as big as those measurements indicate.  His postseason has also been strange because he did not participate in a single All-Star event when most probably expected to see him at the Senior Bowl given his high profile and productivity. 

I have not read or heard a definitive explanation for his absence on the All-Star circuit, be it injury, commitment to working out for the combine or feeling unprepared with his technique as he will be expected to convert to outside linebacker.

When I watched him on tape I did not come away very impressed.  He has the physical look, including speed, of a safety playing rush end that simply blows upfield on every play trying to run around the edge-blocker and get to the quarterback or chase the play down.  Not only will he be undersized playing at the line of scrimmage in the NFL, prompting a move to outside linebacker, but even as a college pass-rusher he appeared to be a one-trick pony (speed rush), lacking hand-fighting skills or a developed repertoire of pass-rush moves required to succeed in this facet at the next level.

If he ever truly was a day-two prospect, and perhaps still is, I would not be surprised to see him tumble into day three once teams get him measured at the combine and really dig into his film and lack of versatility.

Inside Linebacker, Vontaze Burfict

Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State University, Junior, DOB: 9/24/1990

Burfict is another case in this slideshow that may not be too dramatic in terms of falling on draft day and this is meant from both sides of the projection.  In the first place, Burfict may not fall much at all if a team focuses more on his physical gifts and upside, believing they can solve the puzzle to his inconsistency and aptitude issues.  If Burfict does fall into the early/mid-second round as I am positing here, it may not come as too much of a story given how long Burfict's negatives have been analyzed during this process.

He is arguably the most talented linebacker in this class, especially among those that project as inside or middle 'backers in the NFL.  He has true missile potential based on his expected size and speed indexes.  The kind that make some people think of the rare physical attributes of Ray Lewis, Derrick Johnson or Jonathan Vilma.

Burfict's instincts are not universally panned—in fact, they are considered a strength in his game at times—but the problem is that it all comes and goes.  A player with his ability and instincts should be a major impact guy, especially his last two seasons in college.  But he will disappear sometimes from games, or largely appear making careless mental mistakes, committing penalties or running himself right out of plays with poor reads or routes.

Cornerback, Alfonzo Dennard

Alfonzo Dennard, CB, University of Nebraska, 5'10" 205, Senior, DOB: 9/9/1989

Dennard enjoyed consideration throughout the 2011 college football season as one of the top senior cornerbacks in the country and one of the top overall guys at the position regardless of class year, mostly as a first-round projection and top 40 at worst.  His stock suffered a precipitous hit during the Senior Bowl week. 

Before actually departing the festivities with an injury, he was exposed for a lack of movement skills and the inability to recover in man coverage once initially beaten.  These outcomes on such a weighted stage combined with lingering concerns about his subpar height, arm length and hip fluidity.

He became the vogue bash target for the player whose stock fell the most during the Senior Bowl and it is entirely possible that assessment is accurate.  What I find interesting now is if Dennard will actually fall to the point where he becomes a sleeper (in a sort of reverse manner) or quality value pick.  Much of that could be determined by what 40 time he puts up at the combine, as cornerbacks are one of the most scrutinized positions with regard to that test.

If Dennard runs on the slow end at 4.55/4.60 or worse, he could easily plummet into the third round and perhaps lower.  Interestingly, starting in the third and certainly if he is there on day three, he would represent a very enticing pick because when playing football and covering receivers in actual game situations, he has been rather successful.  He is one of the most physical corners in the class in terms of how he attacks his man and has shown solid route-reading and anticipation skills throughout a decorated career. 

It is also important to keep in mind that not every quality starting corner in the NFL is schemed up to have to handle a ton of man-on-man matchups.  Dennard's will be an interesting case to watch unfold over the next three to five years.

Safety, Janzen Jackson

Janzen Jackson, S, McNeese State University (LA), Junior, DOB: Unconfirmed Date in 1991

Jackson is an annual story it seems in the NFL draft analysis process.  Each individual case bears its own consideration and how it unfolds almost always is decided by the choices and approach the player undertakes after becoming a pro.

Jackson came out of high school in Louisiana as a 5-star prep and, in a bit of a recruiting coup, spurned the LSU Tigers to sign with Lane Kiffin at the University of Tennessee.  He became a starter almost right away in his freshman year and was a Southeastern Conference second-teamer as a sophomore in 2010.

Immediately prior to the 2011 football season, Jackson was jettisoned from the Tennessee football program and quickly transferred back home to McNeese State where his father, Lance Guidry, previously played and later coached.  Along with some behavioral issues, the reported reason for his preseason dismissal was tied to numerous recreational drug offenses, namely failing a myriad of urine tests.

The game is now afoot.  Does Jackson have the capacity to understand his mistakes and the discipline to move past them, including through methods of treatment and counseling?  If so, there is arguable first-round talent and certainly day-two intrigue that could pay ample dividends for his drafting team; he could also be a footnote in several years as a player whose personal demons won out. 

Either way, his past transgressions will result in a slide on draft day.