Miller's Mailbag: Breaking Down the Top Running Backs in the 2012 NFL Draft
Wednesday morning means it's mailbag time. Questions poured in on Twitter, with many of you wanting to know who the best of the best is. Lucky for us all, that's one of my favorite things to discuss.
Each week, the best five or 10 questions submitted through Twitter, with the hashtag #MillerMailbag, will get answered here. Feel free to leave your own thoughts in the comments and head to Twitter for more NFL draft analysis and random musings.
"@nfldraftscout Is there a chance the top 3 RBs end up in AFC North? Richardson to Browns & Miller, Polk to Bengals, Steelers. #MillerMailbag
— Shaun Barrio (@ShaunBarrio) February 15, 2012"
There is a great chance that at least the top two running backs end up in the AFC North at this point.
My top three currently sits as Trent Richardson (Alabama), Lamar Miller (Miami, FL) and Chris Polk (Washington). All three carry first-round grades and make sense in the AFC North.
The Cleveland Browns have a major need at running back, and while there is a chance they bring back Peyton Hillis, at this time it seems like they will address the position through the draft. With that in mind, Cleveland at pick No. 4 or pick No. 22 should draft a running back.
The other AFC North team which needs help are the Cincinnati Bengals. Cedric Benson is a free agent and unlikely to return. With two first-round picks, the Bengals are in a great position to select the top running back on the board when their picks come up.
The Baltimore Ravens could be an interesting sub-plot with Ray Rice a free agent, but he should receive the franchise tag, securing his place in Baltimore.
The Pittsburgh Steelers may not have Rashard Mendenhall to start the season, but it would be a surprise if they drafted a back early enough to steal away one of the top three guys.
"#MillerMailbag Do you put extra value on versatile players that can play several positions, or take away b/c they haven't found a niche?
— Matt Nicgorski (@Nicaragua66) February 14, 2012"
At the risk of being very vague—it depends on the player. Versatility helps Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) because he's shown the ability to play three positions on the defensive side of the ball. This is part of what makes him so valuable, and much of that is the high level at which he plays the three positions.
Other players can be hurt by versatility, but usually with that there is a mitigating factor like a lack of size or injury problems.
As the NFL becomes more specialized, there will always be a value in drafting a player who can do more than one thing very well, but teams also draft with the intention of building up certain positions.
If a player is versatile and used at separate positions, you can begin to weaken the depth of one of his spots.
"#MillerMailbag With San Fran's great success in 2011 what do you see them doing in the draft to get them over the hump and into the SB?
— Jordan Bishop (@Jordan_Bishop) February 14, 2012"
The San Francisco 49ers are in very good shape to sit back and wait for the best player to fall to pick No. 30—if they re-sign cornerback Carlos Rogers. Signing Rogers is the key to the offseason. If Rogers is back, the 49ers can address their needs at right guard and wide receiver early in the draft and continue building up the roster.
If they have to search for a starting cornerback at the end of Round 1, it will set them back considerably.
A perfect draft for the 49ers would be (in order) wide receiver, right guard, cornerback, outside linebacker, safety, running back and quarterback. This fills needs, keeps young players coming in at skill positions and adds another quarterback to develop.
"Chances #Packers trade up and get a DE like Nick Perry? #MillerMailbag
— Alec Dopp(@alecdopp) February 14, 2012"
The Green Bay Packers could definitely use an outside linebacker with Nick Perry's athletic ability, but trading up into the top 10 picks to get him seems unlikely for Green Bay.
The Packers will be selecting near the end of every round. Let's assume the team would have to move up to pick No. 8 to get Perry, who went to the Miami Dolphins at No. 9 in my most recent mock draft. The No. 8 pick holds a trade chart value of 1400 points. At pick No. 28 (and a value of 660 points), the Packers have a huge gap to make up if they wanted to move up.
The question isn't so much will they move up, but can they? The Packers have a talented roster of front-line players, but no one on the team (who is expendable) could command the value to help make up the 740-point difference.
To move up to the top 10, the Packers would have to make a Julio Jones-like trade. In my opinion, it's not worth it.
"@nfldraftscout what position is the greatest need for the giants? Will Burfict be around at 32? #MillerMailbag
— Steve Carroll (@sjcarroll0520) February 14, 2012"
The New York Giants have a few identifiable needs.
First up is tight end. The team lost Jake Ballard and Travis Beckum to ACL tears in the Super Bowl. Ballard is also a free agent. If Orson Charles or Dwayne Allen are available at pick No. 32, don't be surprised if the Giants make a move to draft a tight end.
Outside of this, the team needs depth at running back, cornerback and linebacker. It wouldn't hurt to try and solidify the offensive line if a player falls, but currently the board doesn't favor the Giants finding a starting offensive lineman at No. 32 or No. 64.
Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State) shouldn't be around at No. 32 unless he really bombs at the Combine. Burfict may be raw on the field, but his overall instincts and athleticism are good enough that a team like Philadelphia or Baltimore will snatch him up before the Giants can.
"@nfldraftscout How do scouts determine the potential size/growth potential of a players frame and if it is maxed out or not?#MillerMailbag
— Travis Thompson (@tltho10) February 14, 2012"
As creepy as our video producer Aimee thought the weigh-in portion of the Senior Bowl was, this is why it is valuable. By seeing a player stripped down to a pair of shorts you not only get an accurate read on his weight, but you can see if his frame has room to grow.
Some guys are already at their peak and are physically bursting at the seams. Mike Martin of Michigan is a great example of a player who has fully maximized his size potential. Other players lack muscle definition and bulk, so you know by looking at them that dedicated weight training and nutrition will add good weight.
As with any of us, players can always add "bad weight" by increasing their intake and decreasing their workouts. For some positions, players will be asked to add weight instead of bulk. In these cases the players can always be fattened up.
Thanks for the great questions this week. Send in any questions you have on Twitter and leave your thoughts on the questions and answers in the comments.
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