2012 NFL Mock Draft: Top 15 Picks and Which Teams Could Move Down

With the National Football League Combine and free agency on the horizon, the market on 2012 NFL Draft prospects and individual team needs will continue to evolve as the last weekend in April approaches. 

With this in mind, it is still a worthwhile exercise to analyze and try to project which teams could parachute out of the top half of round one. This slideshow mocks the first 15 picks with particular attention paid to those slots that could provide the draft-day drama of a trade.

Robert Griffin III is the obvious keystone prospect when examining which team will move down and at what point. Andrew Luck's historic status aside, Griffin's skill set, intangibles and production have converged to make him almost as likely a top three pick as Luck is number one overall. 

Prior to the resolution of Manning-gate and the free-agency period, there are a number of potential dance partners that arguably make sense to pursue RG3: Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks.

In the aftermath of the RG3 sweepstakes, what other teams could shrewdly move down or even out of the top 15, still draft their preferred player at a position of need and pick up an extra pick or player in the process?  Advance forward in the slideshow to read about the possibilities and weigh in on all 15 mocked picks.

*Heights and weights listed only for those players whose dimensions have been officially measured.

**For the purposes of this piece, I am awarding the coin flip tiebreaker to the Carolina Panthers at pick eight, putting the Miami Dolphins at nine; likewise the Kansas City Chiefs at 11 with the Seattle Seahawks selecting 12th.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-1, Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford University, redshirt-junior, DOB: 9/12/1989

Every credible analyst, draftnik and media commentary is forecasting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck to be selected by the Colts with the first overall pick.  And there is no reason to believe this will not come to fruition.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-2, Washington Redskins (Trade with St. Louis Rams)

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor University, redshirt-junior, DOB: 2/12/1990

At this point on the calendar, there are a number of directions that can be taken in predicting who the St. Louis Rams will engage as a trade partner if anyone at all.  Some of the other relevant teams are listed in the slideshow's introduction.

It is also possible that the Rams decide to stay out of the fray for Robert Griffin III, stand pat and simply select Matt Kalil at left tackle. 

Following the 2011 rookie success of former USC Trojan teammate Tyron Smith as the Dallas Cowboys right tackle, the Rams could follow a similar developmental plan. At the same time, Kalil's projection this high in the draft is directly tied to his tools and aptitude to become an elite left tackle.

This immediate move would also allow St. Louis to slide Rodger Saffold inside to guard or flip him to right tackle, which could provide a second upgrade simultaneously on that offensive line.

But for the purpose of this exercise, I have the Washington Redskins being the most motivated and putting together the most attractive trade package for the right to the St. Louis Rams' number two pick. 

Washington's brass will conclude, perhaps correctly, that its only best chance to sustain future success will hinge on the reconstruction of the offense around a player like Griffin. This will also result in the Rams drafting sixth in this mock.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-3, Minnesota Vikings

Matt Kalil, OT, University of Southern California, redshirt-junior, DOB: 7/6/1989

Operating on the premise that the Washington Redskins move up and select Robert Griffin III second overall in a trade with the St. Louis Rams, the Minnesota Vikings settle into the catbird seat at number three. 

It will leave them with the best player available on all draft boards at any position other than quarterback. The Vikings have needs at offensive tackle, cornerback and wide receiver.

Between value, graded and projected ability as well as positional impact, Matt Kalil is a successful, safe and sensible pick at this spot for Minnesota and its rebuild.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-4, Cincinnati Bengals (Trade with Cleveland Browns)

Trent Richardson, RB, University of Alabama, junior, DOB: 7/10/1990

Some Cleveland fans will be disappointed with this outcome because it takes their team out of the fourth position where they theoretically would draft a surefire impact player. 

But with Robert Griffin III gone, there is no slam dunk intersection between value and need for the Browns at four. It is too early for the top WR prospect (Justin Blackmon), second offensive tackle (Riley Reiff) or top pass-rush prospect (Quinton Coples).

Acquiring Cincinnati's two later first-round picks (17, 21) combined with its own second selection (22) from Atlanta in last year's Julio Jones extravaganza, would leave Cleveland's front office in an enviable position. 

The Browns could horde the picks and get three potential quality starters, including the third quarterback off the board, at their positions of biggest need. Armed with that much firepower, they could also trade back into the top ten or fifteen picks to later target another player of specific value and fit.

The Bengals surprised a lot of people by parlaying their top two 2011 rookie selections (WR A.J. Green and QB Andy Dalton) into a playoff berth and instant renaissance of the organization's competitive relevance. It may prove that Richardson is too tempting given their two-pick bounty from which to deal coinciding with the impending free agency of Cedric Benson and the lack of faith in Bernard Scott.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-5, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Morris Claiborne, CB, Louisiana State University, junior, DOB: 2/7/1990

Greg Schiano takes over as head coach of a Tampa Bay Buccaneers football team that has a few pieces in place with quarterback Josh Freeman and a stable of young, talented defensive linemen. 

Contrarily, most of the other position groups' question marks range from present to dire, including the defensive backfield and offensive line.

Morris Claiborne to this point in the evaluation process is being unanimously identified as the top cornerback prospect in this class and allows the Buccaneers the opportunity to nab the top player at a position of need.

There could be some argument here for Riley Reiff due to the perceived depth at cornerback in this class as opposed to that at offensive tackle. The thought being there will be a bigger drop-off from Reiff when Tampa Bay picks again at 36 than from Claiborne to a corner available early in the second round.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-6, St. Louis Rams (Trade Down with Washington Redskins)

Riley Reiff, OT, University of Iowa, redshirt-junior, DOB: 12/1/1988

There will be plenty of fantasy-motivated and even analytically-driven outcry for the St. Louis Rams to add the perceived top wide receiver prospect in this class, Justin Blackmon, and give erstwhile savior QB Sam Bradford an obvious elite weapon. 

I like Blackmon, perhaps as the best big wide receiver in the class and a quality playmaker. But I am not convinced he will end up as the best overall wideout in this draft. 

And I am even surer that his prospects are not on par with the other successful top ten elites of recent classes: A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson.

Fisher's discerning experience should help the Rams land on Riley Reiff, who would offer the offensive line a chance to improve in two places, as previously discussed with the move of Rodger Saffold to guard or right tackle.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-7, Jacksonville Jaguars

Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State University, redshirt-junior, DOB: 1/9/1990

In direct contrast to Jeff Fisher and the St. Louis Rams making the more prudent pick of a potential cornerstone left tackle with the previous selection, here at seven is where we could see Justin Blackmon get his name called. 

This Jaguars regime has already shown with 2011's 1st-round gamble on Blaine Gabbert that it is willing to exercise questionable judgement on top ten offensive skill. Combine this with the pressure to get Gabbert a true aerial threat and the directional momentum of hiring an offensive coordinator in Mike Mularkey as head coach, this is where the first mistake pick of the 2012 lottery could occur.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-8, Carolina Panthers

Quinton Coples, DE, University of North Carolina, 6'6" 280, senior, DOB: 6/22/1990

Even though the Carolina Panthers have a greater need at defensive tackle, and none will be off the board at this point, I think they may elect Coples' upside rather than that of LSU underclass declaration Michael Brockers at DT. 

In this spot, Coples would be the first senior to come off the board. But also carries with him one of the higher boom/bust indexes in the top of the first round. Factors in this assessment include a questionable motor and aptitude as well as under-performing his perceived talent level.

Following a strong Senior Bowl week and the appeal of his natural gifts, he is likely a more closely finished product than Brockers. The Panthers could envision him teaming with Charles Johnson as impact bookends in the mold of the New York Giants' pass rush. And the memories of Julius Peppers in Chapel Hill and with the Panthers will whet fans' appetites.

If Carolina wants to stay at defensive tackle with this pick and is turned off by some of the perceived risk assoicated with both Brockers and Coples, a sleeper possibility for this spot could be Mississippi State defensive tackle Fletcher Cox.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-9, Miami Dolphins

David DeCastro, OG, Stanford University, redshirt-junior, DOB: 1/11/1990

In a perfect world for the Miami Dolphins, Riley Reiff falls to them with its first pick. With all the potential variables to be played out in front of them, it is a realistic possibility. 

But in this mock with Reiff long gone to St. Louis with the sixth pick, the Dolphins score with DeCastro as possibly the safest plug-and-play amongst the elites in this class. 

He would team with Jake Long and Mike Pouncey to give new head coach Joe Philbin three young and above-average or better starters along the offensive line.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-10, Buffalo Bills

Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, University of South Carolina, 6'2" 275, redshirt-senior, DOB: 4/26/1989

Melvin Ingram has made a believer out of a lot of draft analysts as an athletic and scheme-versatile defender who may also be the best pass-rusher in the class. 

While I am not in this opinion camp, I must acknowledge that the Buffalo Bills may be and there are a couple of fits that line up for this pick.

The Bills already possess two very gifted and scheme-flexible interior defensive linemen in Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, last year's 1st-round pick. In transitioning to a 4-3 base alignment and looking for an impact pass-rusher, Melvin Ingram could fit the bill as a guy that can play on two feet or put his hand on the ground and be successful in both dimensions.

His athletic gifts aside, my trepidation with Ingram stems from how few quality pass-rushers are so short and that he disappeared at times from games in a way not befitting a player of his otherwise perceived status and talent.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-11, Kansas City Chiefs

Fletcher Cox, DE/DT, Mississippi State University, junior, DOB: 12/13/1990

Fletcher Cox may be the name in this slideshow that is least recognized by most readers at this point in the pre-draft process. But he is one to commit to memory and familiarize yourself with now. 

On some teams' boards he may occupy the top spot at either 3-4 defensive end or 4-3 defensive tackle.  He combines great natural ability with excellent awareness and football intelligence giving him the potential to be a rare impact playmaker on the interior defensive line.

The Kansas City Chiefs could find Cox's profile appealing with current starting 3-4 defensive ends Glenn Dorsey (2013 free agent) and Tyson Jackson (likely cap casualty in 2013) both doubtful to remain in Kansas City after the 2012 season.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-12, San Diego Chargers (Trade with Seattle Seahawks)

Courtney Upshaw, OLB, University of Alabama, 6'1½" 275, senior, DOB: 12/13/1989

The San Diego Chargers have been squandering opportunities in a now-playoff window with various inconsistent play. 

This included the defense in 2011, which lacked a meaningful presence on the perimeter and is the impetus for this projected trade up with the Seattle Seahawks from pick 18.

It makes some sense for the Seahawks to move back six slots and pick up an extra pick or player in the swap. It allows them to employ better value in addressing one of its needs in the first round, be it a quarterback (third one off the board), a defensive end (Whitney Mercilus), a defensive tackle (Devon Still) or an offensive lineman with some versatility and upside (Cordy Glenn).

The Chargers net the most complete 3-4 outside linebacker prospect in the class and, although not a consensus elite player in the draftnik community, another high-probability case to reach his considerable ceiling and perform to expectation.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-13, Arizona Cardinals

Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford University, redshirt-junior, DOB: unconfirmed date 1989

If the Arizona Cardinals do, in fact, make Jonathan Martin the 13th overall selection in the 2012 NFL Draft, it would give the Cardinal (of Stanford) its third player taken already in this mock draft; and the Cardinals (of Arizona) a potential mainstay at the all-important left tackle position. 

All three players of note (Martin, along with QB Andrew Luck and OG David DeCastro) would ironically be feathers in the cap of rival NFC West honcho, and reigning NFL Coach of the Year, Jim Harbaugh from the San Francisco 49ers, who oversaw their recruitment to Stanford.

With how the board has fallen in this mock and the currently projected needs for Arizona, the Martin pick would be an excellent intersection of value and fit. While Martin is viewed by the majority as the third offensive tackle in this class and perhaps not elite in either phase, he is an experienced and balanced player in both run and pass blocking capable of being an immediate upgrade at left tackle from day one.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-14, Dallas Cowboys

Mark Barron, S, University of Alabama, senior, DOB: 10/27/1989

A year ago the NFL analyst and draftnik community alike harped on the need for the Dallas Cowboys to address its woefully porous defensive secondary. They did nothing of significance and struggled once more with the performance from this unit. 

There will be some potentially attractive cornerback options available at this point in the likes of Janoris Jenkins, Jamell Fleming and Dre Kirkpatrick. 

But the chance to add the best prospect at his position in Mark Barron could also make sense. He is a prototype NFL center fielder that can run and play inside with quality size while captaining the defensive backfield.

2012 NFL Draft, Pick 1-15, Philadelphia Eagles

Luke Kuechly, MLB, Boston College, junior, DOB: 4/20/1991

There is some support that Luke Kuechly is the top middle linebacker prospect in this class and, at 15th overall, could be a prime fit for the Philadelphia Eagles with its first pick. 

The positives being that Kuechly is a steady, instinctive and fundamental performer at the position that will execute his assignments and provide the Eagles' defense some consistent leadership on that side of the ball. He is also good enough to stay on the field for both run and pass defenses.

I am not particularly enamored with Kuechly myself despite acknowledgement that he may still be the most obvious best prospect at middle linebacker in this class. I feel like his monster tackle productivity gets explained away in subjective attributes which, upon closer film review, prove to be less consistent than desired from a mid-1st round middle linebacker consideration, who isn't as physically gifted as previous prospects of a similar profile. 

By this I mean, he commits too many false steps, is late or out of position more often than expected, and generally makes a lot of plays that come to him, as opposed to him tracking it down for a "plus" or "win" play on defense.

It will really depend in which school of thought the Philadelphia Eagles' evaluation comes down. If they do not see Kuechly as the answer at middle linebacker, perhaps a bigger coup would be the more talented but very unpolished product of Vontaze Burfict. 

This mock also still has Brockers on the board along with the second cornerback and wide receiver, all positions that fit an Eagle need, which could also give way to a mini-trade back a few slots.