Sorting out the Contenders and Non-Contenders of the 2012 MLB Season

Now that the offseason is just about over and done with, I think it's safe to say that we now have a pretty firm idea of how each team is going to look heading into the 2012 season. So, which teams are contenders and which teams have no shot? Let's take a look, division by division:

AL EAST

Baltimore Orioles

The poor Orioles can never seem to get out of their own way, and it doesn't help that they play in what has traditionally been the toughest division of baseball in the AL East. It looked as if Baltimore had a nice nucleus developing, but underperformance by young and promising pitchers Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman have certainly put a damper on things. The O's do have some nice pieces offensively, although players like Adam Jones and Nick Markakis have not lived up to expectations, either. NON-CONTENDERS.

Boston Red Sox

After suffering one of the biggest collapses in MLB history in 2011, major changes occurred in Boston. Gone are long-time mainstays Theo Epstein and Terry Francona, and in are Ben Cherington and Bobby Valentine, the latter of whom hasn't managed in the major leagues since 2001 (Cherington was the Red Sox's vice president of player personnel the past three seasons).

Don't let Boston's choke-job in '11 fool you, though; this team is a legitimate contender, and it would not surprise me in the least to see it win it all this season. It certainly has the offensive firepower to do so. The biggest question marks are its depth in the starting rotation and its new backend of the bullpen. I suspect that they will be okay. CONTENDERS.

New York Yankees

Not that this should come as any sort of surprise, but the Yankees are loaded. After remaining quiet for the majority of the offseason, Brian Cashman and company swooped in and signed Hiroki Kuroda and then traded for Michael Pineda on the same day. The addition of those two should give New York one of the best starting rotations in baseball to go along with what was already the big leagues' strongest bullpen.

Also, the Yankees were able to pawn off some of the money remaining on A.J. Burnett's contract on the Pittsburgh Pirates, as they recently completed a deal to send the much-maligned right-hander to the Bucs. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the Yanks should win the AL East, and they are also my pick to win the World Series. CONTENDERS.

Tampa Bay Rays

They certainly have an impressive young pitching staff with the likes of David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, and Matt Moore, but I am not ready to anoint this team a true contender just yet. Yes, they made the playoffs in 2011, but the Rays have a ton of question marks offensively, and having Kyle Farnsworth as your closer is never a good thing.

In a division that includes the Yankees and Red Sox and an improving team in the Toronto Blue Jays, I don't see Tampa Bay pulling off any late-season magic this time around. Had they played in the AL Central, they'd be a contender, but they don't. NON-CONTENDERS.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto is an interesting team. It has an MVP candidate in the late-blooming Jose Bautista and some very promising young players in Colby Rasmus, J.P. Arencibia, and Brett Lawrie, plus a fine starting rotation. However, the Blue Jays have the same problem as the Rays: the Yankees and Red Sox.

This is a very talented squad, though, and it would not shock me one bit to see them finish ahead of Tampa Bay in this division. In a couple of years, Toronto is going to be a legitimate force to be reckoned with. As of right now, though, it still plays second (actually, third) fiddle to those other two AL East ballclubs that people tend to talk about a lot. NON-CONTENDERS.

AL CENTRAL

Chicago White Sox

Chicago was expected to contend last season, but things didn't exactly work out, as Adam Dunn had a historically bad season and players such as Gordon Beckham and Alex Rios continued to regress. Now, Ozzie Guillen is down in Miami, but in terms of player personnel, not much has changed for the White Sox. Their pitching staff has the potential to be pretty solid, and the progress of Chris Sale will definitely be interesting to monitor.

Perhaps the most intriguing player on Chicago's roster though is young outfielder Dayan Viciedo. The talent is certainly there for him to put up big numbers in 2012. The question is whether or not he will get enough protection in what looks to be a weak lineup to do so. Oh, Chicago as a team? It won't be getting very far. NON-CONTENDERS.

Cleveland Indians

They surprised a lot of people with the start they got off to last season, and then they surprised yet again when they went out and landed Ubaldo Jimenez in a trade with the Colorado Rockies. Unfortunately for Cleveland, Jimenez did not exactly pan out in 2011, pitching to the tune of a paltry 4.88 ERA for the season. If he can rediscover his form of years prior, the Indians are going to have a heck of a one-two punch at the top of their rotation with Jimenez and Justin Masterson, the latter of whom had a very impressive '11 campaign. There is also quite a bit to like on Cleveland offensively with young players like Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana. I don't think the Tribe will contend this season, but down the road, look out. NON-CONTENDERS.

Detroit Tigers

Things were looking bleak when it was announced that Victor Martinez would miss the entire 2012 campaign with a torn ACL. Then, the Tigers went out and signed Prince Fielder to a nine-year deal, and everything was right in the world in Detroit again. Actually, things are more than just "right," as the Tigers now boast what should be the most lethal middle of the order in baseball with Fielder and Miguel Cabrera.

Detroit also has a very nice pitching staff led by defending AL Cy Young and MVP Justin Verlander, and its Jose Valverde-led bullpen is nothing to scoff at, either. The Tigers will contend for a championship this season, without question. I don't think they're better than the Yankees, but they will certainly push them. CONTENDERS.

Kansas City Royals

This is a team that is absolutely teeming with young talent. Alex Gordon finally shed his bust label in 2011 by having a great season, and second-year players such as Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are potential breakout candidates for 2012. Kansas City also possesses one of the most underappreciated hitters in baseball in Billy Butler.

All of that said, the Royals do not exactly have a lot in their starting rotation at the moment. They do, however, have talented left-hander Mike Montgomery on the come-up, and 23-year-old Danny Duffy, who pitched to the tune of a 5.64 ERA in 105.1 innings last season, is a candidate for a significant improvement. Kansas City is not going to challenge for the playoffs in '12, but it will be a pesky team that no one will want to play. In a couple of years, the Royals could be much more than that. NON-CONTENDERS.

Minnesota Twins

We're not used to seeing the Twins flounder out of the playoff race within the first couple of months of the season, but that is exactly what they did in 2011, finishing with the worst record in the American League. In their defense, they had a lot of injuries, as their two offensive stars, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, missed ample time. Still, even taking that into consideration, I don't see Minnesota doing much of anything in 2012. Its starting rotation just isn't very good, and it remains to be seen how Mauer and Morneau (especially the latter) bounce back offensively. Fortuantely for the Twins, there really isn't much competition in the AL Central outside of Detroit, so there is a chance that this team hovers around for a bit. Don't count on anything more than that, though. There just isn't enough talent here. NON-CONTENDERS.

AL WEST

Los Angeles Angels

What an offseason it was for Arte Moreno and the rest of the Angels' front office, as they snagged both the highest profile hitter (possibly in history) and the highest profile pitcher on the free agent market, Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, respectively. Pujols will add a new dynamic to a team that really didn't have much in the way of offense before his arrival, and Wilson could end up giving Los Angeles what could end up being the best starting pitching staff in the bigs, as he joins the likes of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana. Due to their rotation, you have to consider the Angels the frontrunner in this division, and possibly the biggest challenger to the Yankees in the American League. It should certainly be a very fun season in Anaheim. CONTENDERS.

Oakland Athletics

The Athletics had a pretty peculiar offseason, dealing away two of their top pitchers in Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, then going out and landing heralded Cuban prospect Yoenis Cespedes, and then signing Manny Ramirez, something that would have been big three years ago but doesn't mean much of anything now.

I'm not exactly sure what direction Billy Beane is trying to take this team, and with their new ballpark looming, he has to be very careful. I think it is fairly obvious that Beane has all but surrendered the 2012 campaign, as Oakland resembles nothing close to a playoff contender. One thing I am interested in monitoring will be the progression of young second baseman Jemile Weeks. Other than that, there really isn't much to discuss here. NON-CONTENDERS.

Seattle Mariners

Seattle made a rather interesting move by dealing the aforementioned Pineda for top catching prospect Jesus Montero. I don't mean interesting in a good or a bad way; I just mean it for the fact that it was an intriguing move, as I am eager to see how Montero will perform, as many are expecting him to be the savior of what has been a horrific offense for the Mariners for a few years running.

I also think the trade of Pineda is a good sign for M's fans in terms of the status of Felix Hernandez, as I couldn't imagine Seattle trading Pineda if it didn't plan on locking up Hernandez long term. The funny thing is, if Montero and young first baseman Justin Smoak both live up to their billing, the Mariners could end up having a pretty potent middle-of-the-order down the road. Right now, though, they are not even close to contending for anything. NON-CONTENDERS.

Texas Rangers

Last offseason, the Rangers, coming off a trip to the World Series, lost Cliff Lee in free agency. It proved to not be a team-killing issue, as Texas returned to the Fall Classic. Then, this offseason, they lost the aforementioned Wilson, too, and that may end up being too much for this team to handle. It's not that the Rangers won't be a solid team in 2012, as they still have a powerful offense and a very, very nice bullpen, but their starting pitching is clearly going to be an issue. Yes, I understand they signed Yu Darvish, and yes, I understand Neftali Feliz is moving from closer to starter, but who is to say Darvish will step in and perform right off the bat, and who is to say that Feliz will have no problem adjusting to his new role? If they both do, great, but if not, Texas is going to be in trouble. I do think this team will be in the playoff hunt all year long due to its offense alone, but I just don't think they can get back to the World Series with that pitching staff. I am going to call the Rangers contenders, but reluctantly. CONTENDERS.

NL EAST

Atlanta Braves

If it weren't for Boston's epic collapse this past season, Atlanta's monumental meltdown probably would have gotten a lot more attention. The Braves have become synonymous with choking, and this dates all the way back to the 14 straight division title days where they only mustered one World Series title during that span. Still, there is plenty of talent here, especially in the starting rotation with the likes of Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, and Brandon Beachy. Atlanta also has an electric back-end of the bullpen with Jonny Venters and closer Craig Kimbrel.

What I am most interested in monitoring, though, is how Jason Heyward bounces back from an underwhelming sophomore campaign. Seeing if Freddie Freeman can continue to develop will also be fun to watch, as well. The Braves are certainly contenders, but it would behoove them if Heyward can provide the kind of punch he did during his rookie season in 2010, as the team's offense is a bit questionable given Dan Uggla's inconsistency and Chipper Jones' propensity for getting hurt. CONTENDERS.

Miami Marlins

Along with the Angels, new manager Guillen (mentioned earlier) the Marlins stole the show at the 2011 Winter Meetings, signing Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell. With the arrival of Reyes, Hanley Ramirez agreed to move to third base, and despite early reports that he wasn't too happy with the prospect of doing so, he has squelched any kind of doubt by openly saying he is fine with the move. Miami also traded the disappointing Chris Volstad to the Cubs for Carlos Zambrano (Chicago ate most of Zambrano's salary in the deal). Obviously, the Marlins want to go into their new stadium with a bang this year, hence the offseason spending spree.

All of that said, the key to Miami's season is not Ramirez, nor Reyes, or even incredible young slugger Mike Stanton, whom I believe will be a legitimate candidate for the NL MVP award this season. No; the Fish's 2012 campaign rests on the right arm of Josh Johnson. It is no coincidence that the Marlins' downfall began when Johnson injured his shoulder last season. If he can remain healthy, Miami is going to have a heck of a starting pitching staff with him, Buehrle, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, and Zambrano and should push both Atlanta and the Philadelphia Phillies for the NL East crown. CONTENDERS.

New York Mets

How it must feel to be a Mets' fan right now. After Fred Wilpon lost a substantial amount of money in the whole Bernie Madoff fiasco, New York obviously had to cut back on spending. Because of that, the Mets lost fan favorite Reyes to the division rival Marlins and, outside of signing Frank Francisco (and I don't even know if that improves their bullpen), didn't make any moves to remedy their roster. New York did receive some good news recently, though, as it appears that Johan Santana will be ready for opening day, although how effective he will be after not pitching for a full season and then some remains to be seen.

The biggest question general manager Sandy Alderson and the rest of the Mets' front office will likely face this season is what will be done with David Wright. Will they try and trade him for prospects, or will they hold on to him and try to build around him? Nevertheless, it is going to be a long season in Queens. NON-CONTENDERS.

Philadelphia Phillies

Many feel that the Phillies were actually the best team in baseball last year despite the fact that they fell to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS. I hate statements like that because, let's face it; they got knocked out in the first round and essentially backed into the playoffs by going through a pretty bad slump in September. Still, you cannot deny that Philadelphia is an obvious World Series contender heading into 2012.

At the same time, you have to wonder if age will finally catch up to them and if one of the more youthful NL East teams like Miami and Atlanta will snatch the division title away. Until that happens, though, the Phils remain the favorite, thanks to a dynamite starting rotation that includes the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels. Seeing former Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon in a Philadelphia uniform will be rather amusing, too. Whether or not the hefty contract Ruben Amaro and company gave him pays off is another question entirely. CONTENDERS.  

Washington Nationals

The Nationals had a pretty busy offseason, trading for Oakland's Gonzalez and signing Edwin Jackson to bolster their starting pitching staff which, if it can stay healthy (and that is a huge "if," as Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann are not exactly healthbags), can actually end up being one of the better ones in the National League. Of course, the monster deal Washington awarded Jayson Werth with last offseason will sting for a while, but don't kid yourself; the Nats could end up being a pretty solid team this season, as they also boast a solid lineup and bullpen.

Will they be able to contend with the "Big Three" of the NL East? Probably not, but they will certainly be a pesky team that none of those squads will enjoy playing, unlike in recent years when they were feasted on by said ballclubs. And no; I did not forget about Bryce Harper. I just have a hard time believing Washington will rush him by bringing him up to the majors this year. Oh, and one more thing: it was great to see the Nationals extend Ryan Zimmerman for six years and $100 million, even if I feel they slightly overpaid. NON-CONTENDERS.

NL CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs, with new general manager Epstein in tow, have all sorts of problems right now, with a lineup that will not scare anybody and a pitching staff that just isn't very good. They do have the progression of young shortstop Starlin Castro to look forward to, but that may be the only thing that fans of the North Siders will take pleasure in watching in 2012. That is, unless recently acquired first base prospect Anthony Rizzo gets a shot. Hopefully for Chicago fans, Epstein can work the same magic he did in Boston. As of right now, though, he doesn't have much to work with. NON-CONTENDERS.

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati is an intriguing team, as it definitely has the talent to win this division for the second time in three years. It just needs to put it all together. The Reds made a couple of nice offseason moves, first making a deal with the San Diego Padres to acquire starting pitcher Mat Latos and then going out and signing closer Ryan Madson.

I am very excited to watch Jay Bruce this year in particular, as he broke out in 2011 and is primed for an even bigger season in 2012. If he can continue to improve, he and Joey Votto are going to comprise one of the most deadly middle-of-the-orders in baseball. Of course, what most people will be watching in Cincinnati this year is how Aroldis Chapman fairs as a starter. If he performs up to par, the Reds could have a heck of a rotation with him, Johnny Cueto, and Latos. This team could make some noise this season. CONTENDERS.

Houston Astros

The 'Stros finished with the worst record in the big leagues in 2011, and it doesn't appear that much will change for them in 2012. Their lineup is essentially full of a bunch of no-names, and to make matters worse, they don't exactly have the greatest farm system in the world, either. Houston does have a respectable starting rotation with Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris, and Brett Myers in tow, but I think it's a safe bet to assume that both Rodriguez and Myers will be dealt at some point this season. It's going to be a while before the Astros are relevant again. NON-CONTENDERS.

Milwaukee Brewers

The state of Wisconsin breathed a collective sigh of relief when reigning NL MVP Ryan Braun's 50-game suspension for a positive PED test was overturned this past week, and despite losing Fielder to Detroit, the Brewers still have a pretty dangerous lineup, as they went out and signed Aramis Ramirez to counter the loss of Prince. Milwaukee also has a very good starting rotation, and with Braun now back in the fold, the Brew Crew have gone from 2012 afterthoughts to a legitimate contender in the National League. I'm not saying they're World Series bound, but they can certainly win the division. CONTENDERS.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates gave their fans the most exciting season in what seemed like centuries in 2011, actually remaining in the playoff picture much longer than anyone could have anticipated. Of course, they ended up finishing 72-90, so there is still plenty of work to do in Pittsburgh. Why they acquired Burnett from the Yankees is a mystery to me, but there are some things to like here, particularly in the outfield with Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata.

It will also be interesting to see whether or not Pedro Alvarez can live up to his lofty expectations, as the 25-year-old third baseman posted a paltry .191/.272/.289 slash line over the course of 235 at-bats in '11. As far as the Pirates as a team in 2012 goes? Well, I'm sure you can figure that one out. NON-CONTENDERS.

St. Louis Cardinals

Well, after two World Series titles, the Fat Albert era is over in St. Louis, and now the Cardinals will have to face life without one of the greatest players in the history of the game. In the weak NL Central, though, that might not prove to be too debilitating of an issue, as the Cards certainly have the pitching to win the division. Let's not forget that Adam Wainwright is returning after missing all of 2011 after undergoing Tommy John surgery (although how effective he will be remains to be seen), and St. Louis still has Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia, as well.

The Cardinals should also have one of the better offensive outfields in baseball, as it includes Matt Holliday, 2011 NL Comeback Player of the Year Lance Berkman, and the newly acquired Carlos Beltran. I don't think we'll see St. Louis hoisting another trophy in October, but it will certainly be a force in the NL Central. CONTENDERS.

NL WEST

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks surprised many in 2011 by capturing the NL West crown and pushing the Milwaukee Brewers to the brink in the first round of the playoffs. Led by a pitching staff that now features Cahill among the likes of Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson, I see no reason why Arizona won't contend in 2012, especially considering that its offense (which ranked third in the National League in runs last season) is pretty darn solid, as well. CONTENDERS.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies endured a rather disappointing 2011 season which saw them trade away their ace in Jimenez. Colorado certainly has an ample amount in the way of offense with the likes of Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and the newly signed Michael Cuddyer in the lineup, but its starting rotation is very questionable. It does have some talent in pitchers like Jhoulys Chacin (who enjoyed a solid '11) and Juan Nicasio, but it remains to be seen how they will produce in 2012. This is a tough call for me because there is potential here, but based on the pitching staff, I don't see the Rockies doing too much this season. NON-CONTENDERS.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are what I would consider a sleeper team this season. They aren't being discussed very much, but I definitely see enough here for them to challenge for the NL West title. Los Angeles boasts one of the best players in the game in Matt Kemp, not to mention one of the best pitchers in the game in Clayton Kershaw.

Its offense has some question marks, but if young players like Drew Gordon and Jerry Sands live up to their billing, the Dodgers' lineup could end up being very dangerous. The X-factor for L.A., though, is Chad Billingsley. He looked to be developing into an ace several years ago, but inconsistency over the past three seasons has clouded his future. If he can pitch up to his capabilities, the Dodgers may end up being a very serious contender out in the National League. CONTENDERS.

San Diego Padres

San Diego had a pretty busy offseason, trading Latos to the Reds and acquiring Carlos Quentin from the White Sox. While the Padres aren't going to contend in 2012, there is a lot to be excited about in the future if you're a fan of the team, as many feel that they have the strongest farm system in baseball, and they only added to their plethora of young talent by getting back young first baseman Yonder Alonso in the Latos deal. In a few years, San Diego may very well be a team to reckon with in the NL West. Right now, though, not so much. NON-CONTENDERS.

San Francisco Giants

After winning it all in 2010, the Giants failed to even make the playoffs in 2011, as a weak offense finally came back to bite them. General manager Brian Sabean and company didn't exactly do much to improve the lineup in the offseason, either, unless you count trading Jonathan Sanchez to Kansas City for Melky Cabrera as a significant deal (if Cabrera can replicate his '11 campaign, it could very well be just that). Despite the fact that San Francisco's offense is still rather poor, its starting rotation remains one of the best in baseball, and when you have that, you have a chance to contend. The trio of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner is absolutely lethal, and if Ryan Vogelsong can continue his resurgence, then that trio becomes a four-headed monster. CONTENDERS.