NFL Draft 2012: Justin Blackmon vs. Alshon Jeffery, Who Will Be a Better Pro?

Projecting how wide receivers will make the transition from college to the pros is always something of a hit or miss proposition. The wide receivers that are drafted in the first round of the NFL draft are seen as can’t miss prospects that are surefire Pro Bowlers within a matter of years.

Yet somehow, for every superstar that is selected in the first round of the NFL draft, there is also a wide receiver that finds himself labeled a bust. This year’s upcoming NFL draft will be no different, as there are a handful of wide receivers that have a legitimate chance to be selected in the first round. 

While Justin Blackmon is seen as the consensus number one wide receiver in his draft class, could another wide receiver like Alshon Jeffrey surpass him in terms of NFL production? In Bleacher Report's latest mock draft, these two players were taken one pick apart, the sixth and seventh pick overall respectively. Before declaring which one of these game breaking prospects will have a better pro career, let's first compare these two prospects based on certain key wide receiver attributes.

Size

The height and weight of the elite wide receivers in the NFL encompasses a broad range. On one end you have Wes Welker, who is listed at 5’9” and 185 pounds, and on the other is Calvin Johnson, at 6’5” and 236 pounds. 

The size of an NFL wide receiver is an obvious advantage, because it gives the quarterback a bigger target to throw to. In addition, taller wide receivers like Johnson become lethal in the red zone, due to their ability to box out and/or elevate over smaller defenders. 

While Blackmon possesses above average size, 6’1” and 211 pounds, the edge goes to Jeffrey, who towers over most wide receivers, at 6’4” and 232 pounds. 

Route Running

The ability to run a clean, concise route is probably the most important attribute that a wide receiver can have. It’s pretty simple: if you can’t separate yourself from the defense, the quarterback is never going to throw the ball your way. 

Blackmon, even with inflated statistics, showed that there were very few, if any defensive backs that could stay with him. His speed certainly helps in this regard, but Blackmon also does a great job in setting up defenders with various head fakes and hesitations. This should be an area in which Blackmon continues to excel in the NFL.

Jeffrey, while solid in the execution of his routes, does at times leave something to be desired. While he excels at fades and slants in the short yardage situations, Jeffrey can at times struggle to get the necessary separation on the mid-yardage routes. 

The route running attribute is an area that favors Blackmon over Jeffrey. Despite Jeffrey’s proficiency at getting open in short-yardage situations, Blackmon is, as of now, the more refined route runner.

College Production

For as good as Alshon Jeffrey’s college career was at South Carolina, the fact of the matter is that Jeffrey’s career collegiate numbers pale in comparison to what Justin Blackmon accomplished at Oklahoma State. Blackmon, after redshirting in 2008, and playing a minor role on the 2009 team, put together, statistically speaking, one of the best two year stretches for a wide receiver in NCAA history. 

Blackmon, who won the Fred Biletnikoff Award in 2010, as the nation's top receiver, tallied a remarkable 232 catches for 3,304 yards and 38 touchdowns in his final two seasons in Stillwater. In Jeffrey’s three seasons at South Carolina, he caught 183 passes for 3,042 yards and 23 touchdowns.

The discrepancy in the collegiate statistics between Jeffrey and Blackmon is huge, especially when you consider that Jeffrey was the top wide receiver at South Carolina for three years, compared to Blackmon’s two years as a starting wide receiver. The numbers don’t tell the whole picture though. Blackmon undoubtedly benefited from the dynamic, pass heavy offense at Oklahoma State, and the porous defenses of the Big 12. Jeffrey, on the other hand, had to deal with inconsistent quarterback play, and SEC defenses.

Even when you take into account the differing styles of offensive play and defenses faced, it is impossible not to give the edge to Blackmon for his video game like numbers.

Making Defenders Miss

The truly elite wide receivers are the ones that can turn a five-yard reception into a seventy-yard touchdown. Blackmon and Jeffrey both have flashed this ability at their respective colleges, albeit in differing fashions.

Head coach Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State succeeded these past years due to their ability to get Blackmon the ball in space. Once Blackmon got the ball in hands, he was able to beat defenders with his speed, and an array of various juke moves.

Due to the previously mentioned quarterback inconsistencies at South Carolina, Jeffrey wasn’t afforded as many opportunities as Blackmon with the ball in his hands. However, once Jeffrey was able to get the ball in his hands, he presented a mighty challenge for opposing defenses. In contrast with Blackmon, the former South Carolina star was all about powering through defenders. It was a rare occasion when an opposing cornerback was able to bring down Jeffrey by himself.

Due to the physical presence that Jeffrey provides, he gets the slight edge in this category. 

Speed

While drafting wide receivers based purely on speed has led to a considerable amount of busts (Tedd Ginn Jr.), among others, the ability that speed brings to stretch a defense can’t be undervalued. 

The good news for both Jeffrey and Blackmon is that their abilities to get open aren’t entirely predicated on their respective speed. The difference in speed between these two isn’t that big, but the one area where Blackmon has a clear edge is his acceleration off the line.

For that reason, Blackmon gets the edge in the speed category for now, but in reality this could change, depending on what each prospect runs in the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine.

Off the Field History

When considering which prospects will have a successful NFL career, a prospect's off the field history has to be factored in as well. Two wide receivers, Charles Rogers and Reggie Williams, drafted in the top ten this past decade, saw their careers stall due to off the field transgressions.

The good news for prospective teams interested in Jeffrey and Blackmon is that both of these star wide receivers stayed, for the most part, in good graces with the law during their collegiate years. Blackmon did get arrested for a DUI in 2010, but hasn't had any other incidents. Jeffrey, on the other hand, was forced to miss spring practice in 2010 due to academic issues.

Bottom line in this category is that neither of these prospects have multiple red flags that spring up, in terms of off the field transgressions. There is no discernible edge in this category, as neither prospect has done enough off the gridiron to scare a team from drafting them.

Hands

As impressive as a wide receiver may look physically, it can all become a moot point if they can’t catch the ball. It goes without saying, that neither of these players would be as highly regarded as they currently are if they possessed below average hands.

Any time a catchable pass thrown toward these receivers ended up on the turf, it was an anomaly.  Highlight catches for both these receivers became expected, as evidenced by the accompanying video of Jeffrey. 

This is another category that could go either way. It's safe to say that both these receivers have above average hands.

Durability

As with any sport, the ability to stay on the field and continue to compete is critical. With the amount of hits that wide receivers take on a weekly basis, durability plays a crucial role in determining who will have a productive career in the NFL.

This is yet another strong point for both receivers, as neither prospect missed a college game due to injury. As such, this is another category that is split, because neither player will enter the NFL with any lingering injury concerns

Decision

Ultimately, whichever team takes either of these wide receivers is hoping to get a legitimate number one wide receiver that can take over a game. Both of these receivers certainly have the potential to be this guy, which is why they are both highly coveted.

It’s important to remember that the success or failure of these prospects is going to come down to more than just their own attributes. Things like the quarterback situation of their new team, and the coaching that they receive will also factor heavily into their future production.

That being said, heading into the draft, Blackmon is regarded as the better rated prospect, and rightfully so. Jeffrey is an enticing prospect, mainly due to his physical stature. If he finds a way to harness that ability, he'll easily surpass Blackmon in terms of career production.

Although Jeffrey may have the higher potential ceiling, Blackmon seems like the one that will have more career production. Blackmon should come into the NFL and contribute immediately, and as he learns the nuances of the game, he should grow into one of the elite wide receivers in the league.