Major League Baseball 2012 Playoff Predictions

We are into the second week of February now and spring training is coming up fast. For a baseball fan, this is the time of year for putting together your end-of-the-season predictions.

The rosters are still a long way from being set, but by this time of year, enough things have fallen into place to make the wise guy in all of us think we know how everything will play out. 

The old baseball adage "Everyone's still a contender on Opening Day" is of course nonsense. Even with pitchers and catchers yet to report, there's a long list of teams that we know will be hopeless, or at best, mediocre. 

Still, every year a few teams who nobody expected it from contend and/or reach the postseason. Trying to nail those dark horses is what this time of year is all about. 

American League East: New York Yankees

I am from Maine and have hated the Yankees for longer than I have hated anything. One of the worst things about living far away from my little nephew is that I won't be around to help out that much when my brother-in-law is teaching him to say "Yankees suck!"

But in my professional opinion, which is all any true sports fan should really give, the Yankees do not really suck. They were six games better than Tampa Bay last year and seven better than my beloved Red Sox. And the Yankees have gotten better than both of their rivals.

I felt genuinely sad when they signed Michael Pineda (9-10, 3.74 ERA). The first thing I said to my buddy at work, who is a Yankees fan, is "Well, you guys won the division." Only before "guys," there was another word, one that wasn't really appropriate for me to be using at work.

I know the Yanks gave up a choice prospect to get Pineda, but Yankees fans crying about that is like billionaires crying about paying taxes. I watched my team trade Hanley Ramirez to get Josh Beckett and was happy for it, and I lived in Portland when Ramirez played AA there, so I knew what we were giving up.

I'm not saying this is exactly the same trade on face value, but Pineda is a 22-year-old returning All-Star. His potential upside could be huge.

Even if Jesus Montero ends up being the better player, the Yankees still need a potential backup ace to CC a lot more than they need another potential big bat.

American League Central: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers ran away with the AL Central in 2011, and it is hard to imagine them sliding backward enough to not win it again this year. It's actually hard for me to imagine them sliding backward at all. 

The one hole they seemed to have was replacing DH Victor Martinez, who tore his ACL doing conditioning exercises in January. That problem was solved with the blockbuster signing of Prince Fielder (.299, 38 HR, 120 RBI).

With Fielder and Miguel Cabrera (.344, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 1.34 OPS), the Tigers have a 3-4 duo that could be as great as David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez were for Boston during the middle years of the last decade.  They will be backed up by a deep roster filled with solid performers. 

The Tigers dominated the central last year, and they will do it again. 

American League West: Los Angeles Angels

I sort of hate to make this pick, because I don't believe any team that paid Vernon Wells (.218, 25 HR) $26 million last year deserves to win a thing. But the Angels' offseason shopping spree should end up making a lot more sense.

Is a 10-year contract for a 32-year-old, large-framed slugger coming off from an injury-plagued season likely to end up being an albatross at some point? Of course. But long before we get to that, Abert Pujols' big bat may have already paid off.

The Angels made a big splash in the pitching department as well, signing C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA) away from division rival Texas. The move makes their solid staff super and knocks their only serious competition down a peg.    

Wild Card: Texas Rangers

Texas has won the American League pennant for the last two years and even with losing the ace of their staff, C.J. Wilson, to the inter-division rival Angels, they should still be good enough to take the AL Wild Card.

If Yu Darvish can show the same form he did in the Pacific League, the Rangers will be very likely to finish ahead of the Angels once again. But the history of elite Japanese pitchers coming to America has rarely been overwhelming and is more often disappointing. Looking at it on paper, I have to give the pitching edge to the team playing in Anaheim.  

If I were a Texas fan (and I thank God every day that I'm not), I would be mildly concerned about Josh Hamilton's recent relapse. Addiction has taken down many great performers in every field of life. But Hamilton said all the things you would want to hear him say about it. Ultimately, I expect him to stay on track and do fine. 

Who Is Not Going: Boston and Tampa Bay

This is the slide that could lose me three-quarters of my Facebook friends, including some who are relatives. But sometimes it can be painful to say what you think is true.

The Red Sox still have a much better chance of making the playoffs than they did going into any of the seasons between 1979 and 1985, the heart of my childhood. I would have killed for a team like this one in those days.

The Red Sox have a slew of big bats (so long as half of them don't get injured) and three terrific pitchers at the top of the rotation (so long as Clay Buchholtz can bounce back). They should  stay in contention most of the year. I'm picking them to miss the playoffs, but I'm optimistic enough to hope they prove me wrong.

I just think they have a lot more holes in them than the Rangers do.

I feel the same way about the Tampa Bay (should still be Devil) Rays. In my book, they have been Baseball's nicest surprise story in recent years and they should still be gunning for the postseason until late into the year.

But the American League West appears that it might have come of age this offseason. Meanwhile, playing in the East means a much tougher schedule. The Yankees, Red Sox and Tampa Bay all beat up on each other, while the Blue Jays are a far tougher team than any of the West's also-rans.  

So I expect the AL Wild Card to come from the left side of the country.  

National League East: Philadelphia Phillies

The greatest starting rotation since the Braves of the early '90s will be enough to keep the Phillies on top in the East while they wait for Ryan Howard to return.

As a Red Sox fan, I am at least partly relieved that they are the ones who gave John Papelbon that contract. But Paps has been one of the game's elite closers for half a dozen years and is coming off from another big season. For right now, he makes a great team better. 

The Phillies are not exactly a young team, so they should feel some pressure to win it all this year, before their window closes. 

National League Central: Cincinnati Reds

I expect a real dog fight in the National League Central. But it is hard for me to imagine any team could lose the best hitter of my lifetime and the only manager they've had since the first Bill Clinton term and not stumble from it.

So ultimately, I expect the Reds to return to their 2010 form and take the Central. Last year (79-83) was a season to forget, but they made some big moves during the offseason. They traded for top-line starter Mat Latos (9-14, 3.47 ERA) from San Diego and signed free-agent closer Ryan Madson, who saved 32 games to go with a 2.37 ERA for the Philadelphia Phillies last year. Lefty Sean Marshall (7-5, 2.65 ERA, 79 strikeouts in 75.2 innings for the Cubs) will also do a lot to improve the bullpen.  

The two division rivals will have their first meeting early in the year, from April 9-11, the season's second series of the year.  

National League West: San Francisco Giants

It's tough for me to pick against Arizona, which won 94 games last year on the backs of a pitching staff that is very young and very good. At 27, Ian Kennedy (21-4, 2.88 ERA, 198 Ks) was the old man on a starting rotation that had four guys posting double-digit totals in wins. 

They made that very good rotation stronger over the offseason, adding another potential blossoming ace in Trevor Cahill, who was excellent for Oakland in 2010 (18-8, 2.97 ERA) and serviceable in 2011 (12-14, 4.16 ERA). 

But I'm guessing not all those young arms will be as effective this time around, as the league adjusts to them. 

Meanwhile, the Giants, who won it all in 2010, were in first place again last year until Buster Posey went down with a horrific broken leg. He is expected to be ready Opening Day this year, his return more eagerly anticipated than a Grateful Dead reunion in the Bay area this spring. 

The Giants might have the best rotation in the league—after the Phillies. Like the Reds in the Central, I expect them to have a bounce-back year.  

Wild Card: Arizona Diamondbacks

This is essentially the same team that won 94 games last year. They are a very young team, with as much potential to leap ahead as they have to slide back. If they do slip behind the Giants this year, they should still remain good enough to grab the NL Wild Card.

First baseman Paul Goldschmitt hit eight dingers after being called up in August last year. If he breaks out big as a rookie this year, he could team with fellow 24-year-old Justin Upton (.289, 31 HR, 88 RBI) to give the Diamondbacks a dangerous heart to their order. 

Catcher Miguel Montero (.282, 18 HR, 86 RBI) signed a one-year deal rather than going to arbitration with the Diamondbacks at the end of last month. Expect an expanded multi-year deal to be reached during spring training. 

Who Is Not Going: Atlanta and St. Louis

The Braves looked like a playoff-bound team for most of last season before ending 2011 with a historic collapse to match the one endured by Red Sox fans. Still, it's not unreasonable to expect them to be at least as good as they were last year. I just think Arizona will be a little better.

The Cardinals thrilled their fans with last year's World Series, and they should compete again, even with the greatest hitter in the league, Albert Pujols, having departed for the L.A. high life in Anaheim. But I ultimately expect them to slip behind the Reds, and to be at least a few games off the pace for the wild card.