Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Full 1st Round for a 16-Team League

This year, the fantasy game changed with an aerial assault brought on by stud QBs and breakout TEs. Some rookies reached fantasy relevance from the get-go (A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Andy Dalton), and Cam Newton became a fantasy superstar in his first season.

With that said, any mock draft of the first round in 2012 will likely shake down to where tiers of players break and how much stock you put on building around RBs.

And because of the changes we saw in 2011, there will be a multitude of ways the first round of your fantasy draft could play out.

In a 16-team league, these are players that will at least get some first-round consideration. They have been divided by position.

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford

RB: LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marshawn Lynch, Darren McFadden, Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson , Chris Johnson, Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews

WR: Calvin Johnson, Wes Welker, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson

TE: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham

Obviously, that’s more than 16 players. So, here’s how my rankings have the first round shaping up.

1. LeSean McCoy, RB

McCoy is certainly not a consensus No. 1 overall pick. In fact, the first pick in your fantasy draft might not even be a running back.

In most leagues, however, it will be an RB. And in what I consider the top tier of RBs (McCoy, Forte, Rice, Foster), McCoy has all the things I’m looking for in a No. 1 pick.

He’ll be just 24 years old by the time next season rolls around, so he has plenty of miles left on his legs.

He’s only missed two games in his three NFL seasons.

Also, he’s improved every season, and it shows in his statistics.

One stat that jumps out is his NFL-best 84 rushes resulting in first downs. McCoy moves the chains, and the Eagles have enough weapons that he is able to break longer runs on third downs as well. 

I like his chances of being the No. 1 fantasy RB in 2012.

2. Ray Rice, RB

Running backs that add major contributions in the passing game make up the elite class of fantasy runners. With 704 receiving yards, Ray Rice was second to Darren Sproles in receiving for RBs. When added to Rice’s rushing yards (1,364), he amassed over 2,000 combined yards.

The reason Rice goes No. 2 instead of No. 1 is that Rice is the main Raven that defenses game-plan against. And there isn’t a close second.

But the positives far outweigh the negatives with Rice. He’s a do-it-all workhorse, he’s young (25) and hasn’t missed a regular-season game in three seasons.

3. Matt Forte, RB

Health and contract issues marred Forte's 2011 campaign. But with a new GM in Chicago and a clean bill of health for 2012, Forte should be able to put together a complete season that is (hopefully) free of contract concerns.

Like Ray Rice in Baltimore, there is little question that Forte is the focal point of the Bears' offense. Forte is the No. 1 running and receiving threat for the Bears.

Unfortunately, Forte hasn’t put up the type of TD numbers in the past that one might expect from a No. 1 back. However, previous goal-line thief Marion Barber could be gone next year. In that case, Kahlil Bell would be Forte’s backup. Bell is even less of a prototypical goal-line back than Forte. The departure of Barber would be a good sign for Forte fans.

The yardage will definitely be there for Forte, but the Bears' offense will have to do a bit more to help him increase his TDs and allow him to keep pace with McCoy and Rice.

4. Arian Foster, RB

There’s a possibility that injuries or the presence of quality RB2 Ben Tate could scare fantasy owners away from taking Foster this high.

In fact, an unconventional pick could come here with the top WR (Calvin Johnson), top QB (Aaron Rodgers) or even top TE (Rob Gronkowski) available.

I’d stick with an RB here and take Foster. If any more injury concerns surface in the offseason, though, I’d go with Calvin Johnson.

Foster is young enough (25) that last year’s hamstring and foot injuries shouldn’t be of too much concern heading into 2012.

5. Calvin Johnson, WR

Calvin Johnson is a beast.

And he’s the best WR in the NFL.

As I mentioned in my article ranking the Top 15 WRs of 2012: he wins one-on-one, he had the third-most targets in the NFL last season (158) and he plays with a top QB (Matthew Stafford).

Johnson was the No. 1 fantasy receiver in 2011 and there is no reason to believe he won’t put up similar numbers this year.

Another season with 16 TDs might be a stretch, but I like the fact that he’s the clear No. 1 option on his team and has a consistent passer throwing to him. 

Also, at 26 years old, he’s entering the prime of his career.

Calvin Johnson is a surefire stud at WR for 2012. He’s alone in a tier of one as the top WR on my board.

6. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB

MJD was the league’s leading rusher last year with 1,606 yards. He’s a no-brainer choice at pick No. 6 if you’re looking for an RB.

He’s a consistent No. 1 back. And if you can get that with the No. 6 pick, I think you have to take it. Jones-Drew has had double-digit TDs five of the six years he’s been in the NFL. He’s rushed for over 1,300 yards each of the past three seasons as well.

Yes, the Jacksonville offense is questionable with Blaine Gabbert at QB, but a back like this won’t be available in Round 2.

7. Marshawn Lynch, RB

Lynch was the sixth-most productive fantasy back in 2011, and it was his best year to date with over 1,400 total yards and 13 total TDs. He’s not the receiving threat that RBs taken ahead of him are, but he’s a solid top 10 fantasy back for 2012.

He did a lot with little around him in Seattle. He will likely have to do the same in 2012 with either a new contract or under the franchise tag. But he’s already shown he’s capable.

Even if he gets just a little bit more help from the offensive line and/or improved QB play, he could put up his second consecutive career year.

8. Aaron Rodgers, QB

Rodgers is the top-rated QB on my board, but not by much. He gets the nod over Drew Brees because he has better mobility and can net you a few points in the rushing game in addition to being able to make every throw on the field.

Rodgers had the fewest INTs (six) among QBs that attempted 500-plus passes in 2011 as well. Brees had 14 picks, but he also attempted 150 more passes than Rodgers.

The line really is razor-thin, but Rodgers has the edge. And at pick No. 8, the RB you would get would be similar to what you might find in the second round. The best QB, and best player available, is Aaron Rodgers.

9. Drew Brees, QB

Again, at pick No. 9, you can get a running back you’re not 100 percent confident will be a stud, or you can get the No. 2 QB who will give you an advantage in that department almost every week.

Drew Brees is not only the guy who wears No. 9, he’s the guy to take at No. 9.

He’s going to give you plenty of yards through the air, as he has topped the league twice (2008 and 2011) in passing yards.

He set the NFL record with 5,476 yards in 2011 and is the only player to throw for over 5,000 yards in a season on two occasions.

There could be some changes to his receiving corps in 2012, as Marques Colston and Robert Meachem are free agents, but Brees will get his numbers with or without them. 

10. Rob Gronkowski, TE

Well, the top six running backs are gone, the top wide receiver is gone and the top two QBs are gone. Why not take the advantage at TE?

Sure, the chances of Gronkowski replicating or besting his 2011 statistics are slim, but he was clearly the No. 1 tight end. And while he may not catch 17 TDs again in 2012, I’d say double-digit TDs is a lock. 

You’re going to have to be pretty clever in the latter rounds to get your RB and WR depth, but you will have an advantage at TE every week that other teams will have to overcome.

11. Darren McFadden, RB

McFadden could be the best running back in the league…if he could only stay healthy.

McFadden has the running and pass-catching ability of a top-tier RB, he just hasn’t been able to stay on the field. McFadden has yet to play in more than 13 games in any of his four NFL seasons.

Still, the potential is there. Through six games in 2011, McFadden was the league’s leading rusher.

There has been speculation that McFadden might be traded and his destination could affect his value. However, if I’m looking at the available RBs, McFadden is the most talented and maybe the only one available with a legitimate shot at the rushing title.

Run DMC.

12. Cam Newton, QB

Newton had arguably the best rookie season by any quarterback in NFL history. And he did it with a shortened offseason.

Newton was T-3 in total fantasy points among all players.

His total fantasy production should be similar, with a slightly different combination of contributions.

Newton will still rack up points with rushing yards and rushing TDs, but another 14 rushing TDs might be asking a bit much.

However, I expect the gap between TD passes and INTs to grow. In 2011, Cam threw 21 TDs and 17 picks. In 2012, I expect about 27 TD passes and 12 INTs.

Hopefully, Carolina will add some weapons for Newton on the outside in the offseason to add to the talents of rejuvenated WR Steve Smith as well.

13. Michael Turner, RB

Turner is a workhorse back that will definitely get you yards on the ground and TDs in the red zone.

He’s had double-digit TDs in each of his four seasons with the Falcons.

Unfortunately, he doesn’t offer much as far as receptions or receiving yards. But he’s consistent and played in all 16 team games each of the past two seasons.

At No. 13, Turner’s a good selection, and you’ll get a top five WR or QB on the way back in Round 2.

14. Wes Welker, WR

Welker is the second wide receiver taken and second Patriot off the board. In my fantasy receiver rankings for 2012, he was also No. 2.

Welker is a receptions machine. He has led the NFL in receptions two out of the last three seasons and has topped 1,000 yards in four of the last five seasons.

His ability to catch balls from sideline to sideline makes him a top target for Tom Brady and productive against any defense.

He gives you consistency at your WR1 and will allow you to pursue a big-play guy at your other WR slot.

15. Tom Brady, QB

Brady rounds out the top tier of fantasy QBs in my rankings. There are arguments for Stafford or Manning in that tier as well, but I have them a hair below.

Brady had another great year in 2011, and he finished out the season with four straight 300-yard games, helping his fantasy owners in the playoffs.

He set career highs in pass attempts and yardage. He also threw 39 TDs, his second-best season total.

16. Adrian Peterson, RB

It’s hard to believe Peterson is just 26 years old, but he will enter his sixth season coming off career lows in attempts and yards due to an injury-plagued season.

When healthy, Peterson is still one of the top five most dangerous backs and one of the toughest guys in the league.

He’s undergone reconstructive surgery on his knee this offseason. If it looks like he’s progressing and will be ready for 2012, he could be a steal with the last pick of the first round.