2012 NFL Draft Preview: Could Andrew Luck Be a Bust in the NFL?

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck will be taken No. 1 overall in the 2012 NFL Draft. This will happen because Luck is as close to a perfect quarterback as the NFL has seen in this generation. He is guaranteed to be a star.

Or is he?

Scouts say that Luck has everything—arm strength, accuracy, toughness, mobility, intangibles—and if you've seen him play, you know that they're right.  But could the seemingly perfect quarterback be a bust in the NFL?

What are the chances that "Suck for Luck" turns into "Suck for Luck and Keep Sucking?"

Until Luck takes a snap in the NFL, he is just an unproven prospect. Will he prove himself once given the chance? Read on to find out.

The Phil Simms Argument

CBS analyst and former New York Giants quarterback Phil Simms made waves in early November when he said that Andrew Luck doesn't make "big time NFL throws."

He said that "there's not a lot of rotation on the ball and there's not a tremendous amount of power."

He was wrong.

Luck's arm might not be on the same level as Michael Vick's or Donovan McNabb's, but it does have great strength. If anything, he beats out Peyton Manning. And it isn't close.

The Phil Simms Argument isn't even an argument, it's a fallacy. As Mel Kiper said, it "smacks of Simms going against the grain for the sake of going against the grain." His assertions are not true. End of story.

The High Expectations Argument

Andrew Luck has been the consensus No. 1 overall pick for two consecutive years. That means America has had two years to hype him up and create incredible expectations for him.

But those that have seen him play know that he exceeds those expectations.

Not only is Luck a great quarterback, he is a great running back, great tackler and great receiver. And as the play-caller for the Cardinal for parts of this last season, he has proven to be a great offensive coordinator as well.

If Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III hadn't put up other-worldly numbers, or if Stanford had the weapons to let Luck match those numbers, Luck would be a two-time Heisman-winner. It is one of the great tragedies of the last two years that Luck hasn't gone home with a Heisman.

The people in Indianapolis are going to expect Luck to replace one of the best quarterbacks of all-time in Peyton Manning. If anybody can do it, it's Luck. He wasn't phased by the high expectations that followed him into this season and won't be phased by the expectations that will follow him into the next.

The Ryan Leaf Argument

Ryan Leaf's name is synonymous with the word "bust." It is because of him that every time a great prospect emerges, there are doubters. It is because of him that every April, when NFL Draft is held in New York City, each player has to go through the "Is he the next Ryan Leaf?" test.

There's always the chance that Andrew Luck will be crushed by the pressure of the NFL and be unable to adjust to the pro game, but it's unlikely. Luck isn't the same person that Leaf was. His attitude about the game different.

While Leaf left school early to go to the NFL, Luck stayed behind a year to finish his degree and further prepare himself in college. While Leaf had outbursts toward the media, Luck has kept his cool answering questions about a season in which he was unable to win a national championship or Heisman Trophy.

In addition to all of his great mechanics, Luck has outstanding mental makeup and is much more ready for the NFL than Leaf ever was.

The Money Argument

When some players are met with piles of cash and a level of luxury that they aren't used to, they all of a sudden stop giving their full effort.

Former Seahawks running back Shaun Alexander is a great example of this. Following a 2005 season in which he led his team to the Super Bowl and won the MVP award, Alexander signed an eight-year, $62 million contract.

Then he disappeared.

A couple of unfortunate injuries kept him out of games, but when he was playing, he wasn't running with the same hunger as he had before he got his big-money contract.

The same can be said for Titans' running back Chris Johnson and former Raiders No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell. Once they got their money, they didn't work as hard and consequently suffered on the field.

Andrew Luck, however, is different from all of those guys for a number of reasons.

First, he comes from a family where the head of the house is former NFL quarterback and current West Virginia athletic director Oliver Luck. Money is a non-issue for the Lucks.

Second, Luck is very competitive and won't need a paycheck to motivate him to do well. Winning is his primary concern, end of story.

Finally, Luck is a smart guy and a hard worker. He earned 3.48 GPA and a spot on the Pac-12 all-academic team over the fall, something that is not accomplished at Stanford without great brains and a strong work ethic.

Luck's character suggests that he isn't one to take the money and run. No need to worry here.

Final Word

The chances of Andrew Luck being a bust in the NFL are about the same as your chances of being struck by lighting and attacked by a shark at the same time.

Based on what he has shown us, it is incredibly unlikely that Luck will implode at the next level. He has elite accuracy, great arm strength, an exceptional understanding of the game and all of the intangibles.

He may not meet all of our wild expectations of him early on, but he has the talent and makeup to be a consistently great player throughout his career.

There is a reason he is such a valuable commodity. It is extremely rare to see a player without any noticeable weaknesses that may hurt his development at the next level. Luck has proven to be that player. What he won't prove to be is a bust in the NFL.