Rafael Nadal Has Adjustments to Make to Beat Novak Djokovic

For the third time in as many Grand Slams, Rafael Nadal will play Novak Djokovic in the final of the Australian Open.

It hasn't been easy for either to get to this point, as Nadal had to win tough matches against Tomas Berdych and archrival Roger Federer and Djokovic had to outlast Andy Murray in a five-hour deathmatch in the semifinals. 

The question now is if Nadal can overcome Djoker. Nadal couldn't touch him in 2011, and he had to endure losses to Djoker at the final of both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. He also lost his world No. 1 ranking to Djoker in the process.

The problem facing Nadal in 2011 wasn't that he was suddenly a bad tennis player. The problem was that Djoker was suddenly so much better than him.

We're going to find out if that's still the case in the Australian Open final, where anything can happen. The good news, though, is that things do look pretty good for Nadal at the moment.

It looked like Nadal's time Down Under was going to be a disaster early on, as he came down with a mysterious knee injury before the tournament even started, causing him to wear an ugly-looking brace on his right knee. But his movement was fine in his first match and has been fine ever since. Nadal is moving like he's always moved, and that's been bad news for everyone he's encountered.

It will be bad news for Djoker, too. Nadal's ability to cover the court and to return any and all shots will guarantee that this match will not be over quickly. We're in for a multi-hour marathon match that will test the endurance of both players. Given Djokovic's recent breathing troubles, you have to like Nadal's chances in a marathon match.

It's going to take much more than simple endurance for Nadal to beat Djokovic, though. Djoker was able to get the better of Nadal in 2011 because he was able to devise the perfect strategy to beat him, and that strategy kept working. To boot, Nadal was never able to gain any kind of advantage because Djokovic had gone out of his way to address the weaknesses Nadal would try to exploit.

Specifically, what we saw was that Nadal's forehand was no long overwhelming Djokovic's backhand. Because of that, Nadal didn't really have a go-to attack, making it way too easy for Djoker to go on the offensive. All Nadal could do was hold the baseline and hope like hell that Djoker would make a mistake.

Nadal's talent and athletic ability allowed him to at least make his matches against Djoker competitive, but his lack of any kind of technical advantage held him back.

It was clear just from watching that Djoker was in Nadal's head in their matches against each other in 2011. He continued to fight the good fight, but his confidence was clearly rattled.

You therefore worry about how Nadal will respond if Djoker puts him in an early hole in the Open final, as Nadal could find himself thinking, "Oh no, here we go again."

The only way around that for Nadal is to avoid a slow start, which can be accomplished by not repeating the same mistakes he made against Djoker last year. He'll have to try something new, and he'll have to be aggressive.

There's no way Nadal will be able to dominate his way to a victory, but Djoker is beatable. Murray damn nearly did the job, and Nadal is a better player than he is. 

But like I said, what we're going to find out is whether or not he's a better player than Djokovic.