2012 NFL Mock Draft: Overrated Busts Who Do Not Deserve to Go in First Round

There are few certainties in life, but NFL draft picks that don’t pan out is one of them.

Every year multiple players fool scouts with impressive game tape against lesser opponents or by jumping incredibly high at the combine only to be out of the league within three years.

This year is no exception as multiple players already fit the formula and the combine is still a month away. Here are five players poised to disappoint in their NFL career (selections highlighted in italics).

1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Luck is a shoe-in for the top pick and has about a .00001 chance of being a bust.

2. St. Louis Rams: Matt Kalil, OT, USC

Rarely does the top O-line prospect ever disappoint, and with the pedigree of Kalil, expect that trend to continue.

3. Minnesota Vikings: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State 

Did you watch his three-touchdown performance in the Fiesta Bowl? Enough said.

4. Cleveland Browns: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

While I’m not convinced he has Pro Bowl talent, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where RGIII doesn’t have some sort of success at the NFL level.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

The marijuana possession charge is a big deal now, but the draft is still 90-plus days away. He has all the physical skills you could dream of from a corner.

6. Washington Redskins: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

A 5’11", 225-pound back that can catch balls out of the backfield and out-run corners? You can mark Richardson down for six Pro Bowls right now.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

Forget the Honey Badger; Claiborne was the main reason LSU had the best secondary in college football.

8. Carolina Panthers* (subject to coin flip): Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina 

Ingram has the potential to become an elite pass-rusher, which is why he is so high on most people’s boards. But the reality is the inconsistencies he has shown in college are a serious red flag.

He had 10 sacks his senior season, yet 7.5 came in three games. Too often he took plays off and showed little effort. If he has developed this sort of bad habit already, why would things change after receiving a contract worth millions of dollars in the NFL?

This is by far the riskiest pick of the top 10. Yet with the importance of pressuring the quarterback in today’s NFL, somebody is going to draft him about 30 picks to high.

9. Miami Dolphins*: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

The Dolphins need a tackle that can play right away. Reiff fits the bill nicely.

10. Buffalo Bills: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

One of the biggest risk/reward picks in the draft, few players have the raw strength of Coples. His reach at 6’6" is intriguing as well. I think a strong Senior Bowl is going to make Coples one of the top talents on the board.

11. Kansas City Chiefs* (subject to coin flip): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

Luck’s blindside protection will be able to help the Chiefs from Day 1.

12. Seattle Seahawks*: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina 

Jeffery could go in the top 10 or not even in the first round. The ugly finish to his college career is still fresh on the minds of scouts—but so is his ability.

At 6'4", 230 pounds, Jeffery has the sort of size and raw athletic ability that can’t be taught. This will lead to rave reviews at the combine and a top-15 pick.

Pete Carroll loves to turn around troubled players, but he’s in over his head with Jeffery. He has sloppy route-running skills, below-average speed and doesn’t create the separation you would like to see. Besides, 762 yards in his senior season? I know SC had quarterback issues, but there are many Division I players that put up better numbers than Jeffery at a time where he should have been putting up Blackmon-like numbers.

13. Arizona Cardinals: David DeCastro, G, Stanford

The best interior lineman in the draft should help clear up the unpredictability of the Cardinals' running game.

14. Dallas Cowboys: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

Upshaw has the potential to be the next Von Miller with his combination of size and speed.

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College

The 6'3", 240-pound Kuechly has the speed and size to be a contributor right away. That’s what happens when you lead the nation in tackles. Kuechly is legit.

16. New York Jets: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

The decision to skip the Senior Bowl may hurt his stock right now, but in the end his talent will conquer. He holds plenty of records at Notre Dame, and his senior season (1,147 yards, nine TDs) was more than enough to warrant a first-round pick.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland): Cordy Glenn, OT, Georgia

Glenn is the perfect fit in the power-running scheme the Bengals incorporate.

18. San Diego Chargers: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State 

No team dealt with more changes on the offensive line and no team needs a tackle in the first round more than the Chargers.

But is Adams the right guy?

He is getting rave reviews at Senior Bowl practices but it’s hard to shake some red flags in his collegiate career.

Adams was a member of the “Tattoo Five,” which means he missed almost half of the 2011 season. When he returned he was rusty and it showed. Combine that with the fact OSU rarely—if ever—threw the ball and there are some serious doubts about his pass protection.

Keep an eye on the stock of Adams. To borrow a term from Dick Vitale, he’s a “Dow Joneser."

19. Chicago Bears: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

Matt Forte is not happy with the Bears and it will be interesting to see how the organization handles the situation. After Richardson, Miller is the best back to help the Bears move on quickly if they have to. Miller could be the next Ray Rice.

20. Tennessee Titans: Devon Still, DT, Penn State

Still has the sort of strength that will translate instantly. He will be a standout in this category during the combine.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

The Bengals have to get a corner with one of their first-round picks and Gilmore is the best available at 21.

22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama 

Jenkins was a top-10 pick last year but smoked that chance away with a marijuana bust. He is still a first-round talent, but needs to mature in a hurry. No player has more at stake in pre-draft interviews and the NFL combine than Jenkins. Regardless, you have to be concerned that he was kicked off a Florida team that overlooked plenty of other players' problems.

He has gotten mixed reviews at the Senior Bowl practice because of the separation he allows between himself and the receiver. Jenkins is going to get eaten alive on quick slants if he allows this trend to bleed into his NFL career.

23. Detroit Lions: Baylor Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State

The Arizona State product can be a solid contributor quickly for a team that’s on the cusp of making some serious noise in the postseason.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis

Poe is the perfect replacement to take over for the rapidly aging Casey Hampton.

25. Denver Broncos: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Blazing fast at 5'10", 190 pounds, Wright had an incredible senior season (1,663 yards and 14 TDs), but how much of that was because of RGIII?

Wright must have a strong combine to prove to scouts he isn’t just a speed-freak who had a good college quarterback. His size already puts him behind the likes of Blackmon, Floyd and Jeffery.

 I think Wright is going to struggle with physical corners that jam him on the line, thus the timing on his routes are going to be off and his effectiveness is going to be minimal.

He’s not worth a first-round pick.

26. Houston Texans: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska

Dennard has the speed and strength to be a strong contributor right away.

27. New England Patriots (from Saints): Chris Polk, RB, Washington

Polk had a tremendous college career and possesses the foot speed to break off a huge run on any given play.

When was the last time New England had a back like that?

28. Green Bay Packers: Markelle Martin, S, Oklahoma State 

The Packers had the worst pass defense in the NFL this season and their safeties were a big offender.

29. San Francisco 49ers: Andre Branch, DE, Clemson

Adding more depth to keep everybody fresh would make the No. 1-rated rush defense even deadlier.

30. Baltimore Ravens: Dont’a Hightower, ILB, Alabama

Hightower is an athletic freak that could have the opportunity to learn from one of the all-time greats in Ray Lewis.

31. New York Giants: Zach Brown, OLB, UNC

Brown is a strong tackler who fits in well to Tom Coughlin’s 4-3 scheme.

32. New England Patriots: Jared Crick, DE, Nebraska

If it weren’t for a season-ending injury in October, Crick would be much higher. It’s a perfect blend of drafting for need and best available player.