Australian Open 2012: Roger Federer Has Advantage vs. Rafael Nadal in Semifinals

Hold on, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are playing each other in the Australian Open and it isn't the finals?

Well, color me excited. That just isn't supposed to happen. Federer and Nadal provide matches far too epic to take place in the measly ol' semifinals. 

Nonetheless, both have had recent problems that have allowed Novak Djokovic to take control of the No. 1 ranking in the world. With the drop to No. 2 and 3, respectively, Nadal and Federer are on the same side of the bracket for the first time in what seems like forever.

But who has the advantage in the "Match That Isn't Supposed to Happen Yet"?

If history tells us anything, it's Rafael Nadal. But the quarterfinals paint a more updated picture, and they point towards Fed-Ex shipping Rafa home. 

During his quarters match with No. 7 Tomas Berdych, Nadal struggled mightily and seemingly had to rely on will alone to defeat the Czech. Rafa said, before this tournament started, that he didn't have a ton of confidence he would win, and that's looking much more apparent now.

Nadal dropped the first set and struggled his way to a second-set win before rolling in the final two. It was a win, sure, but it was far from pretty.

And most importantly, it wasn't short.

Nadal, who is dealing with shoulder and knee problems and is far from 100 percent, had to gruel his way through four hours and 16 minutes of hard-fought tennis. If that didn't take a lot out of him, I don't know what will. A return to 100 percent in just a few days is far from likely.

Federer, on the other hand, took care of Juan Martin del Potro in classic Federer fashion: a no-nonsense, dominating, straight-sets win.

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"We have played some big matches against each other, so just knowing how well he's been playing as of late, I was just hoping that I would get off (to) a good start," Federer said. "I was able to mix it up well and control the ball, and right away sort of felt confident."

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So you have one player who is far from healthy and coming off a long, grueling match that highlighted how beatable he really is. And you have another who is coming off a match in which he looked like his former, healthy, No. 1 self. 

When these two go up against each other, you pretty much have to throw all logic out of the window, but all signs point towards Federer beating Nadal at a Slam for the first time since 2007.