Rafael Nadal: Rafa Faces Formidable Test Against Archrival Roger Federer

At the outset of the Australian Open, one didn't need a degree in "bracketology" to realize that Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer could meet in the semifinals if both of them played their way through the field.

However, it was easy to have doubts. Nadal hurt his knee before his first-round match against Alex Kuznetsov, and Federer was coming into the tournament fresh off a withdrawal at Qatar due to a bad back. To boot, it was, and still is, no secret that Federer is not as young as he once was.

Yet here we are in the semifinals staring down a Nadal vs. Federer match that is sure to go into the books as yet another epic clash.

And personally, I'm predicting that this one will go into the books as yet another Nadal win. Federer is the greatest player in the history of men's tennis, but he's not the greatest player in the history of this rivalry. That edge goes to Nadal.

But I've learned the hard way not to underestimate this version of Federer. He may be older than he's ever been, but he's also more savvy than he's ever been. He's made some improvements to his game, and the results speak for themselves.

As for what kind of specific improvements Federer has made, Geoff MacDonald of The New York Times penned a piece breaking down the improvements Federer has made to his backhand and net play. Beyond that, though, MacDonald pointed out something that should be obvious to everyone who has watched Federer play in the Australian Open:

He's hitting his opponents where it hurts. He knows where their weaknesses are, and he's exploiting them.

This is why Federer has made his run—that included exactly zero lost sets—through the tournament look so effortless. It has looked effortless because he's not making it hard on himself. He's making it hard on his opponents.

So why can Nadal beat him?

A couple reasons, really. 

With all respect to the opponents Federer has faced so far, none of them are Nadal. He may not be on Novak Djokovic's level, but he is totally deserving of his world No. 2 ranking. Despite his recent injury woes, Nadal's fitness is still unparalleled, and his ability to make and return every shot is not to be underestimated.

Exploiting Nadal's weaknesses is going to be tough for Federer simply because Nadal doesn't have many weaknesses. Federer knows this better than anyone.

We also know for a fact that Nadal isn't about to let Federer get away with another straight-sets victory. He's going to put Federer's fitness to the test, and the longer this match lasts the bigger the advantage Nadal will have.

And that's just the thing. It will be a shock if this match doesn't go the distance. Even if Federer goes up 2-0 on Nadal, he won't be put away that easily. As savvy as this version of Federer is, he's still facing a younger, fitter Nadal who is no fool in his own right.

Given the circumstances, I want to say that this will be the best Nadal-Federer showdown yet, but it will be hard to beat that Wimbledon final in 2008. 

But it will be a damn good one, make no mistake about that. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that it won't be the last either.

At least, I hope not.